中美贸易摩擦对中国大豆的影响及对策分析
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摘要
在中美贸易摩擦背景下,能否保障大豆有效供给和维护大豆相关产业稳定的问题备受学者和政府部门关注。本研究首先梳理了世界、中国及中美大豆生产和贸易状况,进而分析了中美贸易摩擦对中国大豆的影响,最终提出应对策略。研究结果表明中美贸易摩擦对中国大豆产生三方面的影响:(1)进口大豆价格上升,但是幅度较小;(2)豆油、畜产品成本增加,但是对CPI影响有限;(3)增加我国农民种豆积极性,减少对进口大豆的依赖,但是作用有限。应对措施:(1)适当增加国内大豆及油菜籽栽培面积;(2)增加从其它国家的大豆进口量,实施进口多元化;(3)增加大豆替代品的进口和消费,减少大豆进口量;(4)调整饲料配方,采用低蛋白饲料粮配方降低豆粕需求;(5)引导居民调整消费结构,减少大豆需求;(6)深化贸易布局,布局全球产业链。
Under the background of Sino-Us trade friction,the problem of whether to guarantee the effective supply of soybeanand maintain the stability of soybean related industry has attracted the attention of scholars and government departments. Thisstudy firstly combed the world,China and China-US soybean production and trade status,and then assessed the impact of Si-no-US trade friction on China's soybeans,and finally put forward appropriate coping strategies. The results showed that the Si-no-US trade friction had three effects on China's soybean production: The price of imported soybeans rised,but the magnitudewas small. The cost of soybean oil and livestock products increased,but the impact on CPI was limited. Increased ChinaFarmers' enthusiasm for growing soybeans and reduced their dependence on imported soybeans,but their effects were limited.Countermeasures: Appropriately increase the domestic soybean and rapeseed cultivation area. Increase the import of soybeansfrom other countries and diversify imports. Increase the import and consumption of soybean substitutes and reduce soybean im-ports. Adjust feed formula,use low-protein feed grain formula to reduce soybean meal demand. Guide residents to adjust con-sumption structure and reduce soybean demand. Deepen trade layout and lay out global industrial chain.
Under the background of Sino-Us trade friction,the problem of whether to guarantee the effective supply of soybeanand maintain the stability of soybean related industry has attracted the attention of scholars and government departments. Thisstudy firstly combed the world,China and China-US soybean production and trade status,and then assessed the impact of Si-no-US trade friction on China's soybeans,and finally put forward appropriate coping strategies. The results showed that the Si-no-US trade friction had three effects on China's soybean production: The price of imported soybeans rised,but the magnitudewas small. The cost of soybean oil and livestock products increased,but the impact on CPI was limited. Increased ChinaFarmers' enthusiasm for growing soybeans and reduced their dependence on imported soybeans,but their effects were limited.Countermeasures: Appropriately increase the domestic soybean and rapeseed cultivation area. Increase the import of soybeansfrom other countries and diversify imports. Increase the import and consumption of soybean substitutes and reduce soybean im-ports. Adjust feed formula,use low-protein feed grain formula to reduce soybean meal demand. Guide residents to adjust con-sumption structure and reduce soybean demand. Deepen trade layout and lay out global industrial chain.
引文
[1]郭天宝.中国大豆生产困境与出路研究[D].长春:吉林农业大学,2017.(Guo T B. Study on dilemma and way out of China'ssoybean production[D]. Jilin:Jilin Agricultural University,2017.)
[2]张少春,闵师,马瑞.城市化、食物消费转型及其生态环境影响[J].城市发展研究,2018,25(3):13-20.(Zhang S C,Min S,Ma R. Urbanization,food consumption transformation and its im-pact on ecological environment[J]. Urban Development Studies,2018,25(3):13-20.)
[3]郑志浩,高颖,赵殷钰.收入增长对城镇居民食物消费模式的影响[J].经济学,2016,15(1):263-288.(Zheng Z H,Gao Y,Zhao Y Y. Impact of income growth on food consumption patternsin urban China[J]. China Economic Quarterly,2016,15(1):263-288.)
[4]杨树果,何秀荣.中国大豆产业状况和观点思考[J].中国农村经济,2014(4):32-41.(Yang S G,He X R. Thinking on the sta-tus and viewpoint of China's soybean industry[J]. Chinese RuralEconomy,2014(4):32-41.)
[5]魏浩.中国反制美国大豆进口的应对战略与启示[J/OL].人民论坛·学术前沿:1-6[2018-08-25].(Wei H. China's resist-ance of US soybeans and its insight[J/OL]. Frontiers:1-6[2018-08-25].)
[2]张少春,闵师,马瑞.城市化、食物消费转型及其生态环境影响[J].城市发展研究,2018,25(3):13-20.(Zhang S C,Min S,Ma R. Urbanization,food consumption transformation and its im-pact on ecological environment[J]. Urban Development Studies,2018,25(3):13-20.)
[3]郑志浩,高颖,赵殷钰.收入增长对城镇居民食物消费模式的影响[J].经济学,2016,15(1):263-288.(Zheng Z H,Gao Y,Zhao Y Y. Impact of income growth on food consumption patternsin urban China[J]. China Economic Quarterly,2016,15(1):263-288.)
[4]杨树果,何秀荣.中国大豆产业状况和观点思考[J].中国农村经济,2014(4):32-41.(Yang S G,He X R. Thinking on the sta-tus and viewpoint of China's soybean industry[J]. Chinese RuralEconomy,2014(4):32-41.)
[5]魏浩.中国反制美国大豆进口的应对战略与启示[J/OL].人民论坛·学术前沿:1-6[2018-08-25].(Wei H. China's resist-ance of US soybeans and its insight[J/OL]. Frontiers:1-6[2018-08-25].)