摘要
对赌协议是对并购交易标的资产估值调整的契约。现有研究中,对赌协议的激励效应已在理论层面及实证层面得到初步验证。但过高的对赌目标是否反而会引起风险,需进一步研究。本文以2012~2017年6月A股上市公司签订了对赌协议的定增并购事件为样本,对业绩承诺增长率的经济后果进行了实证检验。研究发现,业绩承诺增长率越高,并购溢价与发行后的股价崩盘风险也越高。进一步分组检验表明,在现金支付比例较高时,业绩承诺增长率对并购溢价的影响更强;在股价高估时实施定增并购,较高的业绩承诺增长率更容易引发股价崩盘风险。结果表明,对赌协议有助于降低收购风险的前提是对赌目标具有合理性,当上市公司因过高的对赌目标而支付了过高的并购溢价,反而会加剧股价崩盘风险。建议监管部门加强对高承诺、高估值并购重组的监管,防止恶意承诺和忽悠式重组。
Value Adjustment Mechanism(VAM) is the contract to adjust the valuation of the target assets in M&A transaction. In the previous literature, the incentive effect of VAM has been preliminarily verified in the theoretical and empirical levels, but whether overly high target cause risk on the contrary is still left to be further analysis. This paper makes an empirical test on the economic consequences of the profit growth rate committed in VAM based on the example of A share listed companies which implemented M&A with Private Placement and signed VAM from 2012 to June 2017. The results show that the profit growth rate committed is positively related to the takeover premium and stock crash risk. In further tests, it is found that profit growth rate committed has a stronger impact on takeover premium when cash payment ratio is higher, and higher profit growth rate committed is more likely to lead to stock crash risk when M&A with Private Placement is issued in situation of stock overvaluation. These results mean the premise of VAM to reduce risk is that the target performance is reasonable. It will aggravate stock crash risk if bid firms pay too high premium in M&A for high target performance. In order to avoid these problems, regulation on M&A with high commitment and high valuation should be strengthened, which helps preventing malicious commitment and deceptive restructuring.
引文
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1.完整报道详见“重组标的承诺存兑现风险华鹏飞业绩预报前股价跌停”http://stock.hexun.com/2018-01-31/192359191.html