基于协同的水库汛限水位控制多目标分析
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摘要
为提高对洪水的调节作用和洪水资源化利用效益,以丰满水库为典型,对水库汛限水位控制多目标决策问题进行研究,定义了水库汛限水位控制决策目标与汛限水位之间的协同贡献度函数、系统协调度函数及各目标之间协同贡献度置换率函数,建立了汛限水位控制多目标协同决策模型。将丰满水库汛限水位控制方案离散化,分别计算了各汛限水位方案对应的发电效益和防洪风险,建立了发电效益、防洪风险与汛限水位方案之间的协同贡献度函数;在发电效益与防洪风险协同贡献度目标空间中,进行了发电效益与防洪风险协同贡献度置换率分析和汛限水位控制决策。利用协同贡献度置换率信息进行发电效益与防洪风险协同效应多目标分析和汛限水位控制决策,能深刻揭示水库发电效益与防洪风险之间的关系,提高洪水资源化利用效率。
In order to improve the flood regulating ability and the benefitsof flood resources utilization, the multi-objective decision making problem of control schemes of the limited water level of Fengman Reservoir in flood season was studied. The function of the synergistic contribution degree between the control decision-making objective of the limited water level of reservoir and the limited water level of reservoir in flood season, the harmony degree of the system, and the substitution rate function of the cooperative contribution degree between each objective was defined. The multi-objective collaborative decision making model of control schemes of the limited water level of the reservoir in flood season was established. The limited water level schemes of Fengman Reservoir in flood season were discretized, the benefit of hydroelectric power generation and flood control risk of control schemes of the limited water level of Fengman Reservoir in flood season were calculated respectively, the function of the synergistic contribution degree between the generation energy of the limited water level and the limited water level, the function of the synergistic contribution degree between the flood control risk of the limited water level and the limited water level were established. In the target space of the synergetic contribution degree between the generation benefit and the flood control risk, the substitution rate of the cooperative contribution degree between each objective were analyzed and the control decision of the limited water level in flood season was made. The control decision of the limited water level of reservoir in flood season based on the substitution rate between the synergetic contribution degree of the generation benefit and the synergetic contribution degree of the flood control risk could reveal the relationship between the generation benefit and the flood control risk and improve the utilization efficiency of flood resources.
In order to improve the flood regulating ability and the benefitsof flood resources utilization, the multi-objective decision making problem of control schemes of the limited water level of Fengman Reservoir in flood season was studied. The function of the synergistic contribution degree between the control decision-making objective of the limited water level of reservoir and the limited water level of reservoir in flood season, the harmony degree of the system, and the substitution rate function of the cooperative contribution degree between each objective was defined. The multi-objective collaborative decision making model of control schemes of the limited water level of the reservoir in flood season was established. The limited water level schemes of Fengman Reservoir in flood season were discretized, the benefit of hydroelectric power generation and flood control risk of control schemes of the limited water level of Fengman Reservoir in flood season were calculated respectively, the function of the synergistic contribution degree between the generation energy of the limited water level and the limited water level, the function of the synergistic contribution degree between the flood control risk of the limited water level and the limited water level were established. In the target space of the synergetic contribution degree between the generation benefit and the flood control risk, the substitution rate of the cooperative contribution degree between each objective were analyzed and the control decision of the limited water level in flood season was made. The control decision of the limited water level of reservoir in flood season based on the substitution rate between the synergetic contribution degree of the generation benefit and the synergetic contribution degree of the flood control risk could reveal the relationship between the generation benefit and the flood control risk and improve the utilization efficiency of flood resources.
引文
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[2] 王才军,郭生练,刘攀,等.三峡水库动态汛限水位洪水调度风险指标及综合评价模型研究[J].水科学进展,2004,15(3):376-381.
[3] 刘冀,王本德,周惠成.汛限水位实时动态控制的概率多目标优选方法[J].水力发电,2007,33(6):19-22.
[4] 张验科,王丽萍,裴哲义,等.综合利用水库调度风险评价决策技术研究[J].水电能源科学,2011,29(11):51-54.
[5] 秦雪,马长明,陈鹏宇,等.岩滩水库汛限水位动态控制域的应用研究[J].人民黄河,2017,39(3):28-32.
[6] 戴文鸿,冯逸君,甘珑,等.多沙水库汛限水位实时动态控制方案研究[J].人民黄河,2016,38(5):31-36.
[7] 黄润荣,任光耀.耗散结构与协同学[M].贵阳:贵州人民出版社,1988:192-246.
[8] 孟庆松,韩文秀.复合系统协调度模型研究[J].天津大学学报,2000,33(4):444-446.
[9] 胡宏达,俞宏,刘翠杰,等.白山、丰满水库最新设计洪水成果简介[J].东北水利水电,2002,20(9):34-35.
[10] 张家宏,鲁一晖.丰满大坝全面治理方案可行性研究[C]//中国水利学会水工专业委员会.中国水利学会水工专业委员会第十届年会论文集.北京:中国水利学会水工专业系委员会,2012:6-8.
[11] 李光顺.吉林丰满水电站全面治理(重建)工程可行性研究报告通过审查[J].水力发电,2012,38(2):89-90.
[12] 付红娟,李晓军,郑德湘.丰满水电站全面治理重建工程装机容量研究[J].东北水利水电,2013,31(12):15-16.
[13] 马雪梅,李英士,俞宏.白山、红石、丰满水库设计洪水复核[J].东北水利水电,2013,31(9):53-54.
[14] 王永峰,孟继慧.丰满水库调度有关基础资料问题的历史沿革[J].水利水电技术,2016(6):56-59.
[15] JENKINS K,SURMINSKI S,HALL J,et al.Assessing Surface Water Flood Risk and Management Strategies Under Future Climate Change:Insights from an Agent-Based Model[J].Science of Total Environment,2017,595:159-168.
[16] ROOS M M D,HARTMAN T T,SPIT T T J M,et al.Constructing Risks-Internalisation of Flood Risks in the Flood Risk Management Plan[J].Environmental Science & Policy,2017,74:23-29.
[17] 陈炯宏,郭生练,刘攀,等.汛限水位动态控制的防洪极限风险分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2008(5):38-40.