人均收入增长对中国进口食品多样化的影响——非位似偏好视角
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摘要
近年来,中国食品进口种类大幅增长,这是传统供给维度和贸易开放层面无法解释的新问题。本文从需求收入新角度,探究中国人均收入增长对中国食品进口种类影响的内在机制和影响程度。基于非位似偏好假设,从需求维度构建了人均收入影响进口种类多样化的分析框架,通过面板数据固定效应和系统GMM估计进行实证分析。研究发现,在控制供给因素和贸易开放程度前提下,中国人均收入增长(需求因素)显著提高了中国进口食品的多样化程度。同时,人均收入对中国进口食品多样化的影响受到距离(贸易成本)的牵制,但负向影响程度有限。这从需求维度对中国进口食品多样化给出了新的解释,对未来促进中国农产品品种供给契合消费者需求等方面都具有重要参考价值。
The variety number of China import food increases dramatically in recent years. This is a new issue that cannot be explained bythe supply side in international trade theories and also not totally explained by China's open market. The aim of this study is to explore the impact of China's average income growth on food import diversity through consumers demand perspective. Based on the assumption of non-homothetic preferences,this paper builds a theoretical model under the framework of EK model to describe the relationship between per capita income and the diversification of imported foods. This paper empirically tests the hypotheses by means of fixed effects model and system GMM of dynamic panel data. The results indicate that per capita income has a positive and significant influence on the diversification of imported foods. Meanwhile, it finds that the effect of per capita income on the diversification of imported foods is tied to the distance( trade cost) between trading countries,but the extent is limited. Our study provides a new angel explanation through demand side to the China's food import diversity. The results have important policy implication for identifying the target of food supply side reform and promoting the supply of agricultural products in China to meet the demand of consumer.
The variety number of China import food increases dramatically in recent years. This is a new issue that cannot be explained bythe supply side in international trade theories and also not totally explained by China's open market. The aim of this study is to explore the impact of China's average income growth on food import diversity through consumers demand perspective. Based on the assumption of non-homothetic preferences,this paper builds a theoretical model under the framework of EK model to describe the relationship between per capita income and the diversification of imported foods. This paper empirically tests the hypotheses by means of fixed effects model and system GMM of dynamic panel data. The results indicate that per capita income has a positive and significant influence on the diversification of imported foods. Meanwhile, it finds that the effect of per capita income on the diversification of imported foods is tied to the distance( trade cost) between trading countries,but the extent is limited. Our study provides a new angel explanation through demand side to the China's food import diversity. The results have important policy implication for identifying the target of food supply side reform and promoting the supply of agricultural products in China to meet the demand of consumer.
引文
[1]张玉娥,朱晶.基于三元差额视角的中国农产品贸易逆差结构[J].财经科学,2015(10):74-81.
[2]Krugman P. Scale Economies,Product Differentiation,and the Pattern of Trade[J]. American Economic Review,1980,70(5):950-959.
[3]Broda C,Weinstein D E. Globalization and the Gains from Variety[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2006,121(2):541-585.
[4]陈勇兵,李伟,钱学锋.中国进口种类增长的福利效应估算[J].世界经济,2011(12):76-95.
[5]Feenstra R C. New Product Varieties and the Measurement of International Prices[J]. American Economic Review,1994,84(1):157-177.
[6]Chaney T. Distorted Gravity:the Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade[J]. American Economic Review,2008,98(4):1707-1721.
[7]Eaton J,Kortum S. Technology,Geography,and Trade[J]. Econometrica,2002,70(5):1741-1779.
[8]钱学锋,熊平.中国出口增长的二元边际及其因素决定[J].经济研究,2010(1):65-79.
[9]Fieler A C. Nonhomotheticity and Bilateral Trade:Evidence and a Quantitative Explanation[J]. Econometrica,2011,79(4):1069-1101.
[10]Matsuyama K. A Ricardian Model with A Continuum of Goods under Nonhomothetic Preferences:Demand Complementarities,Income Distribution,and North-South Trade[J]. Journal of Political Economy,2000,108(6):1093-1120.
[11]Dalgin M,Trindade V,Mitra D. Inequality,Nonhomothetic Preferences,and Trade:A Gravity Approach[J].Southern Economic Journal,2008,74(3):747-774.
[12]Markusen J R. Putting Per-capita Income Back into Trade Theory[J]. Journal of International Economics,2013,90(2):255-265.
[13]文洋,张振华.收入分配差距对我国进口贸易的影响[J].国际贸易问题,2011(11):43-52.
[14]Hepenstrick C,Tarasov A. Per Capita Income and the Extensive Margin of Bilateral Trade[J]. Canadian Journal of Economics,2015,48(4):1561-1599.
[15]Melitz M J. The Impact of Trade on Intra-industrty Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity[J]. Econometrica,2003,71(6):1695-1725.
[16]Simonovska I. Income Differences and Prices of Tradables:Insights from an Online Retailer[J]. Review of Economic Studies,2015,82(2):1621-1656.
[17]Bekkers E,Francois J,Manchin M. Import Prices,Income,and Inequality[J]. European Economic Review,2012,56(4):848-869.
[18]Baier S L,Bergstrand J H. Do Free Trade Agreements Actually Increase Members'International Trade?[J]. Journal of International Economics,2007,71(1):72-95.
[19]Arellano M,Bond S. Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data:Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations[J]. Review of Economic Studies,1991,58(2):277-297.
[20]Arellano M,Bover O. Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-components Models[J]. Journal of Econometrics,1995,68(1):29-51.
[21]Blundell R,Bond S. Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models[J]. Economics Papers,1998,87(1):115-143.
[22]余妙志.贸易成本对我国出口多样化影响研究[D].杭州:浙江工业大学,2016:126.
[23]习近平.之江新语[M].杭州:浙江省人民出版社,2013.
[24]Gale F,Hansen J,Jewison M. China’s Growing Demand for Agricultural Imports[R]. Economic Information Bulletin 2015,No.136.
[25]胡冰川.中国农产品市场分析与政策评价[J].中国农村经济,2015(4):4-13.
(1)本文定义一种产品种类为从一个特定进口来源国进口的特定HS六分位编码的产品。
(1)Melitz[15]把一国贸易增长分解为扩展边际和集约边际。从产品层面来看,贸易增长包括贸易产品在种类维度上的扩张(扩展边际)和已有贸易产品在数量维度上的增长(集约边际)。扩展边际强调新产品对进口的贡献,并且克服了Feenstra指数法的缺点,是Feenstra指数的继承与发展。当前,扩展边际是国际贸易研究中衡量多样化的主流方法。
(1)更为复杂的效用函数设定形式,可以参考Bekkers et al[17]的做法,但这类效用函数都统称为stone-geary效用函数。不同的效用函数形式,不会改变本文的理论框架和结果。为了简化,本文选择了更为简单的效用函数的设定形式。
(2)在非位似偏好的假设下,对不同商品而言,需求增加的比例与收入增加的比例不一致,消费者优先选择更多需求收入弹性高的商品。而在位似偏好下,对不同商品需求增加的比例与收入增加的比例相同。
(1)Simonovska使用了人均国民收入GNI和人均居民消费两个指标,考虑到人均国民收入GNI和人均GDP其实本身没有多大差别,人均居民消费并不一定能代表收入水平,所以基于本文研究对象的考虑,本文认为选择城镇居民可支配收入更适合。
[2]Krugman P. Scale Economies,Product Differentiation,and the Pattern of Trade[J]. American Economic Review,1980,70(5):950-959.
[3]Broda C,Weinstein D E. Globalization and the Gains from Variety[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2006,121(2):541-585.
[4]陈勇兵,李伟,钱学锋.中国进口种类增长的福利效应估算[J].世界经济,2011(12):76-95.
[5]Feenstra R C. New Product Varieties and the Measurement of International Prices[J]. American Economic Review,1994,84(1):157-177.
[6]Chaney T. Distorted Gravity:the Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade[J]. American Economic Review,2008,98(4):1707-1721.
[7]Eaton J,Kortum S. Technology,Geography,and Trade[J]. Econometrica,2002,70(5):1741-1779.
[8]钱学锋,熊平.中国出口增长的二元边际及其因素决定[J].经济研究,2010(1):65-79.
[9]Fieler A C. Nonhomotheticity and Bilateral Trade:Evidence and a Quantitative Explanation[J]. Econometrica,2011,79(4):1069-1101.
[10]Matsuyama K. A Ricardian Model with A Continuum of Goods under Nonhomothetic Preferences:Demand Complementarities,Income Distribution,and North-South Trade[J]. Journal of Political Economy,2000,108(6):1093-1120.
[11]Dalgin M,Trindade V,Mitra D. Inequality,Nonhomothetic Preferences,and Trade:A Gravity Approach[J].Southern Economic Journal,2008,74(3):747-774.
[12]Markusen J R. Putting Per-capita Income Back into Trade Theory[J]. Journal of International Economics,2013,90(2):255-265.
[13]文洋,张振华.收入分配差距对我国进口贸易的影响[J].国际贸易问题,2011(11):43-52.
[14]Hepenstrick C,Tarasov A. Per Capita Income and the Extensive Margin of Bilateral Trade[J]. Canadian Journal of Economics,2015,48(4):1561-1599.
[15]Melitz M J. The Impact of Trade on Intra-industrty Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity[J]. Econometrica,2003,71(6):1695-1725.
[16]Simonovska I. Income Differences and Prices of Tradables:Insights from an Online Retailer[J]. Review of Economic Studies,2015,82(2):1621-1656.
[17]Bekkers E,Francois J,Manchin M. Import Prices,Income,and Inequality[J]. European Economic Review,2012,56(4):848-869.
[18]Baier S L,Bergstrand J H. Do Free Trade Agreements Actually Increase Members'International Trade?[J]. Journal of International Economics,2007,71(1):72-95.
[19]Arellano M,Bond S. Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data:Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations[J]. Review of Economic Studies,1991,58(2):277-297.
[20]Arellano M,Bover O. Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-components Models[J]. Journal of Econometrics,1995,68(1):29-51.
[21]Blundell R,Bond S. Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models[J]. Economics Papers,1998,87(1):115-143.
[22]余妙志.贸易成本对我国出口多样化影响研究[D].杭州:浙江工业大学,2016:126.
[23]习近平.之江新语[M].杭州:浙江省人民出版社,2013.
[24]Gale F,Hansen J,Jewison M. China’s Growing Demand for Agricultural Imports[R]. Economic Information Bulletin 2015,No.136.
[25]胡冰川.中国农产品市场分析与政策评价[J].中国农村经济,2015(4):4-13.
(1)本文定义一种产品种类为从一个特定进口来源国进口的特定HS六分位编码的产品。
(1)Melitz[15]把一国贸易增长分解为扩展边际和集约边际。从产品层面来看,贸易增长包括贸易产品在种类维度上的扩张(扩展边际)和已有贸易产品在数量维度上的增长(集约边际)。扩展边际强调新产品对进口的贡献,并且克服了Feenstra指数法的缺点,是Feenstra指数的继承与发展。当前,扩展边际是国际贸易研究中衡量多样化的主流方法。
(1)更为复杂的效用函数设定形式,可以参考Bekkers et al[17]的做法,但这类效用函数都统称为stone-geary效用函数。不同的效用函数形式,不会改变本文的理论框架和结果。为了简化,本文选择了更为简单的效用函数的设定形式。
(2)在非位似偏好的假设下,对不同商品而言,需求增加的比例与收入增加的比例不一致,消费者优先选择更多需求收入弹性高的商品。而在位似偏好下,对不同商品需求增加的比例与收入增加的比例相同。
(1)Simonovska使用了人均国民收入GNI和人均居民消费两个指标,考虑到人均国民收入GNI和人均GDP其实本身没有多大差别,人均居民消费并不一定能代表收入水平,所以基于本文研究对象的考虑,本文认为选择城镇居民可支配收入更适合。