中国北方风蚀区风速变化时空特征分析
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摘要
利用北方风蚀区155个气象站点1971—2015年平均风速数据,采用气候趋势分析、空间插值和小波分析等方法分析北方风蚀区平均风速的时空变化趋势。结果表明:近45 a来,北方风蚀区年平均风速为2. 70 m·s-1,呈明显减小趋势,其递减速率为0. 017 m·s-1·a-1(α=0. 001),1980s风速减小最快,1990s减小最缓慢,2010s风速出现增大趋势;我国北方风蚀区四季的平均风速均呈现下降趋势,下降速度春季>夏季>秋季>冬季(α=0. 001),不同年代不同季节风速变化存在较大差异,2010s除春季外其他季节风速均呈现增大趋势;空间分布上显示,风速变化幅度空间分布差异明显,北方风蚀区内的新疆西北部和东南部、青海、内蒙古中部和东北部、黑龙江以及吉林为风速降低较快的区域,甘肃东南部、宁夏、陕西和山西北部以及新疆的东北部和西部等地区是风速降低不明显的区域。春季和夏季风速降低较快的区域面积扩大,冬季和秋季风速降低较缓的区域扩大;平均风速存在多时间尺度的周期性结构特征,28 a时间尺度左右为风速变化的主周期,平均变化周期为18 a。
In order to research the temporal and spatial characteristics of wind speed changes in the wind erosion region of northern China,annual and seasonal wind speed data from the 155 meteorological stations evenly distributed in the study area were selected from 1971 to 2015,and the methods of climate trending rate,spatial interpolation and wavelet analysis method were used. The annual and seasonal wind speed characteristics,spatial variability of the range of wind speed variety and the period of wind speed changes were analyzed. The results showed as follows that the annual average wind speed was 2. 70 m·s~(-1) in the wind erosion region of northern China and reduced significantly at a rate of 0. 017 m·s~(-1)·a~(-1)( α = 0. 001) in the last 45 years. Furthermore,the seasonal wind speed trend rate were-0. 023 m·s~(-1)·a~(-1)( spring),-0. 017 m·s~(-1)·a~(-1)( summer),-0. 016 m·s~(-1)·a~(-1)( autumn),-0. 014 m·s~(-1)·a~(-1)( winter)( α = 0. 001),respectively. Wind speed decreased fastest and slowest were in1980 s and 1990 s respectively,and wind speed increased only in 2010 s. There were significant differences in different decades and seasons. The change range of wind speed had different spatial distribution in the wind erosion region of northern China. The wind speed decreased quickly in the central east,central west,northwest and east part of northern China. The southeastern part of Gansu,Ningxia,northern parts of Shanxi and Shaanxi,Liaoning and northeastern and western parts of Xinjiang provinces were areas where wind speed were not significantly decreasing. In spring and summer,the area of wind speed reduced quickly has extended,and the area of wind speed reduced slowly has extended in winter and autumn. Morlet wavelet analysis revealed that average wind speed exhibited quasi-periodic variations of around 28 year,and the average change period was about 18 years. At present,the wind erosion region of northern China is experiencing a low wind velocity stage. This paper used the latest time series data to analyze the temporal and spatial analysis of wind speed in the whole wind erosion region of northern China to improve the overall and forward understanding of wind speed changes and lay the foundation for predicting the future trend of wind speed,which is of far-reaching significance for preventing the disasters and improving the ecology and environment of the wind erosion region of northern China,and provide reference and scientific basis for the nation to develop and make plans for wind energy resources.
In order to research the temporal and spatial characteristics of wind speed changes in the wind erosion region of northern China,annual and seasonal wind speed data from the 155 meteorological stations evenly distributed in the study area were selected from 1971 to 2015,and the methods of climate trending rate,spatial interpolation and wavelet analysis method were used. The annual and seasonal wind speed characteristics,spatial variability of the range of wind speed variety and the period of wind speed changes were analyzed. The results showed as follows that the annual average wind speed was 2. 70 m·s~(-1) in the wind erosion region of northern China and reduced significantly at a rate of 0. 017 m·s~(-1)·a~(-1)( α = 0. 001) in the last 45 years. Furthermore,the seasonal wind speed trend rate were-0. 023 m·s~(-1)·a~(-1)( spring),-0. 017 m·s~(-1)·a~(-1)( summer),-0. 016 m·s~(-1)·a~(-1)( autumn),-0. 014 m·s~(-1)·a~(-1)( winter)( α = 0. 001),respectively. Wind speed decreased fastest and slowest were in1980 s and 1990 s respectively,and wind speed increased only in 2010 s. There were significant differences in different decades and seasons. The change range of wind speed had different spatial distribution in the wind erosion region of northern China. The wind speed decreased quickly in the central east,central west,northwest and east part of northern China. The southeastern part of Gansu,Ningxia,northern parts of Shanxi and Shaanxi,Liaoning and northeastern and western parts of Xinjiang provinces were areas where wind speed were not significantly decreasing. In spring and summer,the area of wind speed reduced quickly has extended,and the area of wind speed reduced slowly has extended in winter and autumn. Morlet wavelet analysis revealed that average wind speed exhibited quasi-periodic variations of around 28 year,and the average change period was about 18 years. At present,the wind erosion region of northern China is experiencing a low wind velocity stage. This paper used the latest time series data to analyze the temporal and spatial analysis of wind speed in the whole wind erosion region of northern China to improve the overall and forward understanding of wind speed changes and lay the foundation for predicting the future trend of wind speed,which is of far-reaching significance for preventing the disasters and improving the ecology and environment of the wind erosion region of northern China,and provide reference and scientific basis for the nation to develop and make plans for wind energy resources.
引文
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[10]蒋冲,王飞,刘焱序,等.秦岭南北风速时空变化及突变特征分析[J].地理科学,2013,33(2):244-250.[JIANG Chong,WANG Fei,LIU Yanxu,et al. Spatial-temporal variation and mutation of wind speed in the northern and southern regions of the Qinling Mountains[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2013,33(2):244-250.]
[11]张克新,潘少明,曹立国. 1961—2010年河西地区平均风速时空变化趋势分析[J].地理科学,2014,34(11):1404-1408.[ZHANG Kexin,PAN Shaoming,CAO Liguo. Spatial and temporal trends of average wind speed in Hexi area in 1961—2010[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2014,34(11):1404-1408.]
[12] GUO H,XU M,HU Q. Changes in near-surface wind speed in China:1969—2005[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2011,31(3):349-358.
[13]李耀辉,张存杰,高学杰.西北地区大风日数的时空分布特征[J].中国沙漠,2004,24(6):715-723.[LI Yaohui,ZHANG Cunjie,GAO Xuejie. Temporal and spatial characteristics of gale weather over northwest China[J]. Journal of Desert Research,2004,24(6):715-723.]
[14]张艺磊.中国北方风蚀区土壤可蚀性因子及其空间分异[D].北京:北京师范大学,2012.[ZHANG Yilei. Soil erodibility factors and their spatial variation in the wind erosion region of northern China[D]. Beijing:Beijing Normal University,2012.]
[15]王军,傅伯杰,邱扬,等.黄土高原小流域土壤养分的空间分布格局—Kriging插值分析[J].地理研究,2003,22(3):373-379.[WANG Jun,FU Bojie,QIU Yang,et al. Spatial distribution patterns of soil nutrients in a small catchment of the Loess Plateau:Kriging method[J]. Geographical Research,2003,22(3):373-379.]
[16]杨强,覃志豪,王涛,等.榆林地区1970—2010年气候因子变化特征分析[J].干旱区地理,2012,35(5):695-707.[YANG Qiang,TAN Zhihao,WANG Tao,et al. Characteristics of climate change in Yulin region during 1970—2010[J]. Arid Land Geography,2012,35(5):695-707.]
[17]林纾,陆登荣.近40年来甘肃省降水的变化特征[J].高原气象,2004,23(6):898-904.[LIN Yu,LU Dengrong. Climatic change characteristics of precipitation in Gansu Province in recent40 years[J]. Plateau Meteorology,2004,23(6):898-904.]
[18]王存忠,牛生杰,王兰宁. 50年来中国沙尘暴的多时间尺度变化特征[J].大气科学学报,2009,32(4):507-512.[WANG Cunzhong,NIU Shengjie,WANG Lanning. Multi-time scale variation of sand-dust storm in China during 1958—2007[J]. Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences,2009,32(4):507-512.]
[19]徐鸣,赵柳生,王斌. PM10浓度时间序列多时间尺度分析的小波方法[J].环境科学与技术,2008,31(4):57-59.[XU Ming,ZHAO Liusheng,WANG Bin. Wavelet method of multi-time scale analysis for time-series of PM10concentration[J]. Environmental Science&Technology,2008,31(4):57-59.]
[20]李淼,夏军,陈社明,等.北京地区近300年降水变化的小波分析[J].自然资源学报,2011,(6):1001-1011.[LI Miao,XIA Jun,CHEN Sheming,et al. Wavelet analysis on annual precipitation around 300 years in Beijing area[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2011,(6):1001-1011.]
[21]尤卫红,段旭,杞明辉.连续小波变换在云南近百年气温和降水变化分析中的应用[J].高原气象,1999,18(1):47-54.[YOU Weihong,DUAN Xu,QI Minghui. Continuous wavelet transforms and their applications to surface air temperature and yearly precipitation variations in Yunnan during last one hundred years[J]. 1999,18(1):47-54.]
[22]胡永宁,王林和,张国盛,等.毛乌素沙地1969—2009年主要气候因子时间序列小波分析[J].中国沙漠,2013,33(2):390-395.[HU Yongning,WANG Linhe,ZHANG Guosheng,et al.Wavelet analysis on the temporal series of principal climate factories in Mu Us Sandy Land during 1969—2009[J]. Journal of Desert Research,2013,33(2):390-395.]
[23]何毅,杨太保,陈杰,等. 1960—2013年南北疆风速变化特征分析[J].干旱区地理,2015,38(2):249-259.[HE Yi,YANG Taibao,CHEN jie,et al. Wind speed change in north and south Xinjiang from 1960 to 2013[J]. Arid Land Geography,2015,38(2):249-259.]
[24]任国玉,郭军,徐铭志,等.近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征[J].气象学报,2005,63(6):942-956.[REN Guoyu,GUO Jun,XU Mingzhi,et al. Climate changes of China’s mainland over the past half century[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2005,63(6):942-956.]
[2]强明瑞,肖舜,张家武,等.柴达木盆地北部风速对尘暴事件降尘的影响[J].中国沙漠,2007,27(2):290-295.[QIANG Mingrui,XIAO Shun,ZHANG Jiawu,et al. Impact of wind velocity on dustfall during dust storm events in northern Qaidam Basin China[J]. Journal of Desert Research,2007,27(2):290-295.]
[3]张国平,张增祥,刘纪远.中国土壤风力侵蚀空间格局及驱动因子分析[J].地理学报,2001,56(2):146-158.[ZHANG Guoping,ZHANG Zengxiang,LIU Jiyuan. Spatial distribution of wind erosion and its driving factors in China[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences,2001,56(2):146-158.]
[4]赵宗慈,罗勇,江滢,等.近50年中国风速减小的可能原因[J].气象科技进展,2016,6(3):106-109.[ZHAO Zongci,LUO Yong,JIANG Ying,et al. Possible reasons of wind speed decline in China for the last 50 years[J]. Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology,2016,6(3):106-109.]
[5] MCVICAR T R,VAN NIEL T G,LI L T,et al. Wind speed climatology and trends for Australia,1975—2006:Capturing the stilling phenomenon and comparison with near-surface reanalysis output[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2008,35(20):288-299.
[6] WANG Z,DING Y,HE J,et al. An updating analysis of the climate change in China in recent 50 years[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2004,62(2):228-236.
[7] PRYOR S C,BARTHELMIE R J,YOUNG D T,et al. Wind speed trends over the contiguous United States[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2009,114(D14):14105.
[8]王鹏祥,杨金虎,张强,等.近半个世纪来中国西北地面气候变化基本特征[J].地球科学进展,2007,22(6):649-656.[WANG Pengxiang,YANG Jinhu,ZHANG Qiang,et al. Climate change characteristic of northwest China in recent half century[J].Advances in Earth Sciences,2007,22(6):649-656.]
[9]张志斌,杨莹,张小平,等.我国西南地区风速变化及其影响因素[J].生态学报,2014,34(2):471-481.[ZHANG Zhibin,ZHANG Ying,ZHANG Xiaoping,et al. Wind speed changes and its influencing factors in southwestern China[J]. Aata Ecological Sinica,2014,34(2):471-481.]
[10]蒋冲,王飞,刘焱序,等.秦岭南北风速时空变化及突变特征分析[J].地理科学,2013,33(2):244-250.[JIANG Chong,WANG Fei,LIU Yanxu,et al. Spatial-temporal variation and mutation of wind speed in the northern and southern regions of the Qinling Mountains[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2013,33(2):244-250.]
[11]张克新,潘少明,曹立国. 1961—2010年河西地区平均风速时空变化趋势分析[J].地理科学,2014,34(11):1404-1408.[ZHANG Kexin,PAN Shaoming,CAO Liguo. Spatial and temporal trends of average wind speed in Hexi area in 1961—2010[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2014,34(11):1404-1408.]
[12] GUO H,XU M,HU Q. Changes in near-surface wind speed in China:1969—2005[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2011,31(3):349-358.
[13]李耀辉,张存杰,高学杰.西北地区大风日数的时空分布特征[J].中国沙漠,2004,24(6):715-723.[LI Yaohui,ZHANG Cunjie,GAO Xuejie. Temporal and spatial characteristics of gale weather over northwest China[J]. Journal of Desert Research,2004,24(6):715-723.]
[14]张艺磊.中国北方风蚀区土壤可蚀性因子及其空间分异[D].北京:北京师范大学,2012.[ZHANG Yilei. Soil erodibility factors and their spatial variation in the wind erosion region of northern China[D]. Beijing:Beijing Normal University,2012.]
[15]王军,傅伯杰,邱扬,等.黄土高原小流域土壤养分的空间分布格局—Kriging插值分析[J].地理研究,2003,22(3):373-379.[WANG Jun,FU Bojie,QIU Yang,et al. Spatial distribution patterns of soil nutrients in a small catchment of the Loess Plateau:Kriging method[J]. Geographical Research,2003,22(3):373-379.]
[16]杨强,覃志豪,王涛,等.榆林地区1970—2010年气候因子变化特征分析[J].干旱区地理,2012,35(5):695-707.[YANG Qiang,TAN Zhihao,WANG Tao,et al. Characteristics of climate change in Yulin region during 1970—2010[J]. Arid Land Geography,2012,35(5):695-707.]
[17]林纾,陆登荣.近40年来甘肃省降水的变化特征[J].高原气象,2004,23(6):898-904.[LIN Yu,LU Dengrong. Climatic change characteristics of precipitation in Gansu Province in recent40 years[J]. Plateau Meteorology,2004,23(6):898-904.]
[18]王存忠,牛生杰,王兰宁. 50年来中国沙尘暴的多时间尺度变化特征[J].大气科学学报,2009,32(4):507-512.[WANG Cunzhong,NIU Shengjie,WANG Lanning. Multi-time scale variation of sand-dust storm in China during 1958—2007[J]. Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences,2009,32(4):507-512.]
[19]徐鸣,赵柳生,王斌. PM10浓度时间序列多时间尺度分析的小波方法[J].环境科学与技术,2008,31(4):57-59.[XU Ming,ZHAO Liusheng,WANG Bin. Wavelet method of multi-time scale analysis for time-series of PM10concentration[J]. Environmental Science&Technology,2008,31(4):57-59.]
[20]李淼,夏军,陈社明,等.北京地区近300年降水变化的小波分析[J].自然资源学报,2011,(6):1001-1011.[LI Miao,XIA Jun,CHEN Sheming,et al. Wavelet analysis on annual precipitation around 300 years in Beijing area[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2011,(6):1001-1011.]
[21]尤卫红,段旭,杞明辉.连续小波变换在云南近百年气温和降水变化分析中的应用[J].高原气象,1999,18(1):47-54.[YOU Weihong,DUAN Xu,QI Minghui. Continuous wavelet transforms and their applications to surface air temperature and yearly precipitation variations in Yunnan during last one hundred years[J]. 1999,18(1):47-54.]
[22]胡永宁,王林和,张国盛,等.毛乌素沙地1969—2009年主要气候因子时间序列小波分析[J].中国沙漠,2013,33(2):390-395.[HU Yongning,WANG Linhe,ZHANG Guosheng,et al.Wavelet analysis on the temporal series of principal climate factories in Mu Us Sandy Land during 1969—2009[J]. Journal of Desert Research,2013,33(2):390-395.]
[23]何毅,杨太保,陈杰,等. 1960—2013年南北疆风速变化特征分析[J].干旱区地理,2015,38(2):249-259.[HE Yi,YANG Taibao,CHEN jie,et al. Wind speed change in north and south Xinjiang from 1960 to 2013[J]. Arid Land Geography,2015,38(2):249-259.]
[24]任国玉,郭军,徐铭志,等.近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征[J].气象学报,2005,63(6):942-956.[REN Guoyu,GUO Jun,XU Mingzhi,et al. Climate changes of China’s mainland over the past half century[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2005,63(6):942-956.]