海外市场风险如何影响中国企业的国际化进程?
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摘要
海外市场风险是促使企业采取循序渐进的国际化策略的关键因素。文章构建了一个异质性企业国际化选择的两周期模型,论证了风险不确定条件下企业的动态国际化路径:企业首先会通过出口尝试获得盈利能力,如果盈利水平低于出口成本,企业将会退出市场,反之企业持续出口;如果盈利水平足够高,企业将会开始对外直接投资。文章运用企业-年份-目的国层面的2005～2013年具有出口、对外直接投资信息的全新数据实证研究发现,企业在国外市场的出口经验对于开始投资该市场的概率有正向影响。出口经验的作用在很大程度上取决于国外市场风险的不确定性,当企业投资于市场风险更大的目的地时,获得出口经验就显得更为重要。
The overseas market risk is the key factor that promotes enterprises to adopt gradual internationalization strategy. This paper constructs a two-cycle model of internationalization choice for heterogeneous firms and demonstrates the dynamic internationalization path of firms under uncertain conditions. Firstly,enterprises will try to gain profitability by exporting. If the profitability level is lower than the export cost,enterprises will quit the market; otherwise,enterprises will continue to export. If the profit level is high enough,enterprises will start foreign direct investment. Using the new data empirical research on export and foreign direct investment information from 2005 ～ 2013 at the enterprise-year-destination level,it is found that the export experience of enterprises in foreign markets has a positive impact on the probability of start invest ment in the market,and the role of export experience depends to a large extent on the uncertainty of foreign markets,that is,when companies invest in destinations where market conditions are more uncertain,it is more important to gain export experience.
The overseas market risk is the key factor that promotes enterprises to adopt gradual internationalization strategy. This paper constructs a two-cycle model of internationalization choice for heterogeneous firms and demonstrates the dynamic internationalization path of firms under uncertain conditions. Firstly,enterprises will try to gain profitability by exporting. If the profitability level is lower than the export cost,enterprises will quit the market; otherwise,enterprises will continue to export. If the profit level is high enough,enterprises will start foreign direct investment. Using the new data empirical research on export and foreign direct investment information from 2005 ～ 2013 at the enterprise-year-destination level,it is found that the export experience of enterprises in foreign markets has a positive impact on the probability of start invest ment in the market,and the role of export experience depends to a large extent on the uncertainty of foreign markets,that is,when companies invest in destinations where market conditions are more uncertain,it is more important to gain export experience.
引文
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[31] Yu,Miaojie. Processing Trade,Tarif Reductions,and Fin Productivity:Evidence from Chinese Fins,Economic Journal,2015,125(585):943-988.
[32]高越,李荣林.分割生产与产业内贸易:一个基于DS垄断竞争的模型[J].世界经济,2008(5).
[33]顾雪松,韩立岩,周伊敏.产业结构差异与对外直接投资的出口效应——“中国—东道国”视角的理论与实证[J].经济研究,2016(4).
[34]蒋冠宏,蒋殿春.中国企业对外直接投资的“出口效应”[J].经济研究,2014(5).
[35]刘淑琳,黄静波.对外直接投资与企业生产率——基于中国上市公司的实证分析[J].国际经贸探索,2011(2).
[36]林志帆.中国的对外直接投资真的促进出口吗[J].财贸经济,2016(2).
[37]李春顶.出口贸易、FDI与我国企业的国际化路径选择——新-新贸易理论模型扩展及我国分行业企业数据的实证研究[J].南开经济研究,2009(2).
[38]施炳展,齐俊妍.金融发展、企业国际化形式与贸易收支[J].世界经济,2011(5).
[39]田巍,余淼杰.企业生产率和企业“走出去”对外直接投资:基于企业层面数据的实证研究[J].经济学:季刊,2012(1).
[40]王永钦,杜巨澜,王凯.中国对外直接投资区位选择的决定因素:制度、税负和资源禀赋[J].经济研究,2014(12).
[41]张纪凤,黄萍.替代出口还是促进出口——我国对外直接投资对出口的影响研究[J].国际贸易问题,2013(3).
[2] Albornoz F,Pardo H F C,Corcos G.. Sequential exporting[J]. Journal of International Economics,2012,88(1):17-31.
[3] Bernanke B S.. Irreversibility,Uncertainty,and Cyclical Investment[J]. Nber Working Papers,1983,98(1):85-106.
[4] Brainard S L.. An Empirical Assessment of the Proximity-Concentration Trade-off Between Multinational Sales and Trade[J]. American Economic Review,1997,87(4):520-544.
[5] Cai,H.,Q. Liu. Competition and Corporate Tax Avoidance:Evidence from Chinese Industrial Firms. Economic Journal,2009,119(537):764-795.
[6] Chen,Cheng,Tian,Wei,Yu,Miaojie. Outward FDI and Domestic Input Distortions:Evidence from Chinese Firms. CCER working paper,Peking University,2016.
[7] Conconi P,Sapir A,Zanardi M.. The internationalization process of firms:From exports to FDI[J]. Journal of International Economics,2016,99(1):16-30.
[8] Cox,D. R.. Partial likelihood. Biometrika,1975,62:269-726.
[9] Dixit A K,Pindyck R S.. Investment under Uncertainty:[M]. Investment under uncertainty,Princeton University Press,1994:659-81.
[10] Eaton,J,Eslava,M,Krizan,C. J,Kugler,M,Tybout,J.. A Search and Learning Model of Export Dynamics,2010.
[11] Eaton,J,Eslava,M,Kugler,M,Tybout,J.. The Margins of Entry into Export Markets:Evidence From Colombia. In:Helpman,H.(Ed.),The Organization of Firms in a Global Economy. Harvard University Press,Cambridge,MA,2008.
[12] Forsgren,M.,Johanson,J.(eds.). Managing Networks in International Business. Philadelphia,Gordon&Breach,1992:10.
[13] Gordon,R. H,J. R. Hines Jr. International Taxation. Handbook of Public Economics,2002,4:1935-1995.
[14] Guiso L,Parigi G.. Investment and Demand Uncertainty[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics,,1999,114(1):185-227.
[15] Helpman E,Melitz M J,Yeaple S R.. Export Versus FDI with Heterogenous Firms[C]. 2004:300-316.
[16] Huang,R. R.. Disentangling unfamiliarity effects and transport cost effects. Eur. Econ. Rev,2007,51:161-181.
[17] Johanson J,Vahlne JE. The internationalization process of the firm"A model of knowledge development and increasing foreign market commitment"[J]. Journal of International Business Studies,1977,8(1):23-32.
[18] Jovanovic B.. Selection and Evolution of Industry[J]. Econometrica,1982,50:649-670.
[19] Markusen J R.. Multinationals,multi-plant economies,and the gains from trade[J]. Journal of International Economics,1984,16(3-4):205-226.
[20] Markusen,Horstmann James R.. Exploring New Markets:Direct Investment,Contractual Relations and the Multinational Enterprise. International Economic Review,1996,37:1:1-19.
[21] Mc Donald,R,Siegel,D.. The value of waiting to invest. Q. J. Econ,1986,101:707-727.
[22] Melitz J,Toubal F.. Native language,spoken language,translation and trade CEPII Working Paper2012~2017[J]. Journal of International Economics,2012,93(2):351-363.
[23] Melitz M J.. The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity[J]. Econometrica,2003,71(6):1695-1725.
[24] Oldenski L.. Export Versus FDI and the Communication of Complex Information[J]. Journal of International Economics,2012,87(2):312-322.
[25] Olley G S,Pakes A.. The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry[J]. Econometrica,1996,64(6):1262-1297.
[26] Petrin A,Poi B P,Levinsohn J.. Production function estimation in Stata using inputs to control for unobservables[J]. Stata Journal,2004,4(2):113-123.
[27] Ramondo N.. The Proximity-Concentration Tradeoff under Uncertainty[J]. Review of Economic Studies,2013,80(4):1582-1621.
[28] Rauch J E,Watson J.. Starting small in an unfamiliar environment[J]. International Journal of Industrial Organization,2003,21(7):1021-1042.
[29] Rob R,Vettas N.. Foreign Direct Investment and Exports with Growing Demand[J]. Review of Economic Studies,2010,70(3):629-648.
[30] Rodrik D.. Policy Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries[J]. Nber Working Papers,1989,36(2):229-242.
[31] Yu,Miaojie. Processing Trade,Tarif Reductions,and Fin Productivity:Evidence from Chinese Fins,Economic Journal,2015,125(585):943-988.
[32]高越,李荣林.分割生产与产业内贸易:一个基于DS垄断竞争的模型[J].世界经济,2008(5).
[33]顾雪松,韩立岩,周伊敏.产业结构差异与对外直接投资的出口效应——“中国—东道国”视角的理论与实证[J].经济研究,2016(4).
[34]蒋冠宏,蒋殿春.中国企业对外直接投资的“出口效应”[J].经济研究,2014(5).
[35]刘淑琳,黄静波.对外直接投资与企业生产率——基于中国上市公司的实证分析[J].国际经贸探索,2011(2).
[36]林志帆.中国的对外直接投资真的促进出口吗[J].财贸经济,2016(2).
[37]李春顶.出口贸易、FDI与我国企业的国际化路径选择——新-新贸易理论模型扩展及我国分行业企业数据的实证研究[J].南开经济研究,2009(2).
[38]施炳展,齐俊妍.金融发展、企业国际化形式与贸易收支[J].世界经济,2011(5).
[39]田巍,余淼杰.企业生产率和企业“走出去”对外直接投资:基于企业层面数据的实证研究[J].经济学:季刊,2012(1).
[40]王永钦,杜巨澜,王凯.中国对外直接投资区位选择的决定因素:制度、税负和资源禀赋[J].经济研究,2014(12).
[41]张纪凤,黄萍.替代出口还是促进出口——我国对外直接投资对出口的影响研究[J].国际贸易问题,2013(3).