FDI促进我国产业结构升级的路径研究——基于结构方程模型
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摘要
为了更加深入地探究外商直接投资(Foreign Direct Investmentt,FDI)与我国产业结构变动之间的关系,对FDI作用于我国产业结构升级的具体路径以及效果进行研究;运用2008—2014年29个省、自治区及直辖市数据,基于结构方程模型并使用AMOS软件对整个路径进行模拟检验,计算各路径具体影响系数。结果表明:FDI对于我国产业结构升级具有积极的正向作用。其中技术进步路径是促进产业结构升级的最优路径。投资结构提升对于产业结构升级具有较大推动作用,但现阶段我国FDI对于投资结构提升作用有限。FDI通过提升消费结构促进产业结构升级的路径影响力有限,边际效果很小。
In order to explore the relationship between FDI and China' s industrial structure change,path and effect of FDI on the upgrading of industrial structure in China are investigated.Through collecting and analyzing data of 29 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities) from 2008 to 2014,a simulation test was conducted on all relevant paths,and the influence coefficient of each path by the application of AMOS was analyzed on the basis of structural equation modeling(SEM).Results indicate that,FDI exerts a positive impact on upgrading the industrial structure.Technological progress is the optimal path for the upgrading.Optimization of investment structure can largely promote the upgrading of industrial structure in spite of the fact that FDI at present only exercises a limited effect on the promotion of investment structure.Besides,the contribution of FDI to the upgrading through the improvement of consumption structure is insignificant and has little marginal effect.
In order to explore the relationship between FDI and China' s industrial structure change,path and effect of FDI on the upgrading of industrial structure in China are investigated.Through collecting and analyzing data of 29 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities) from 2008 to 2014,a simulation test was conducted on all relevant paths,and the influence coefficient of each path by the application of AMOS was analyzed on the basis of structural equation modeling(SEM).Results indicate that,FDI exerts a positive impact on upgrading the industrial structure.Technological progress is the optimal path for the upgrading.Optimization of investment structure can largely promote the upgrading of industrial structure in spite of the fact that FDI at present only exercises a limited effect on the promotion of investment structure.Besides,the contribution of FDI to the upgrading through the improvement of consumption structure is insignificant and has little marginal effect.
引文
[1]苏红岩,李京梅.“一带一路”沿线国家FDI空间布局与污染转移的实证研究[J].软科学,2017,31(3):25-29.
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[4]张宇,蒋殿春.FDI、环境监管与工业大气污染——基于产业结构与技术进步分解指标的实证检验[J].国际贸易问题,2013(7):102-118.
[5]Chenery H B,Strout A M.Foreign assistance and economic development:reply[J].American Economic Review,1968,58(4):912-916.
[6]Hirschman A O.Exit,voice,and loyalty:responses to decline in firms,organizations,and states[J].Social Forces,1970,25(1):47-56.
[7]尹亚红,汪前元.FDI、金融发展与产业结构优化的实证分析——基于广东省的经验数据[J].云南财经大学学报,2013(5):126-134.
[8]贾妮莎,韩永辉,邹建华.中国双向FDI的产业结构升级效应:理论机制与实证检验[J].国际贸易问题,2014(11):109-120.
[9]王静.FDI促进中国各地区产业结构优化的门限效应研究[J].世界经济研究,2014(3):73-79+89.
[10]Cantwell J,Bellak C.How important is foreign direct investment?[J].Oxford Bulletin of Economics&Statistics,1998,60(1):99-106.
[11]Abraham F,Konings J,Slootmaekers V.FDI spillovers in the Chinese manufacturing sector[J].Economics of Transition,2010,18(1):143-182.
[12]牛卫平.国际外包陷阱产生机理及其跨越研究[J].中国工业经济,2012(5):109-121.
[13]张平.FDI抑制了中国服务业发展吗?[J].经济评论,2016(5):110-123+136.
[14]田泽永,江可申,江宏.FDI技术溢出对江苏制造业的影响——基于静态和动态面板数据的实证研究[J].科研管理,2009(1):121-128.
(1)数据来源:国家统计局。
[2]Kokko A.Technology,market characteristics,and spillovers[J].Journal of Development Economics,1994,43(2):279-293.
[3]张林.中国双向FDI、金融发展与产业结构优化[J].世界经济研究,2016(10):111-124+137.
[4]张宇,蒋殿春.FDI、环境监管与工业大气污染——基于产业结构与技术进步分解指标的实证检验[J].国际贸易问题,2013(7):102-118.
[5]Chenery H B,Strout A M.Foreign assistance and economic development:reply[J].American Economic Review,1968,58(4):912-916.
[6]Hirschman A O.Exit,voice,and loyalty:responses to decline in firms,organizations,and states[J].Social Forces,1970,25(1):47-56.
[7]尹亚红,汪前元.FDI、金融发展与产业结构优化的实证分析——基于广东省的经验数据[J].云南财经大学学报,2013(5):126-134.
[8]贾妮莎,韩永辉,邹建华.中国双向FDI的产业结构升级效应:理论机制与实证检验[J].国际贸易问题,2014(11):109-120.
[9]王静.FDI促进中国各地区产业结构优化的门限效应研究[J].世界经济研究,2014(3):73-79+89.
[10]Cantwell J,Bellak C.How important is foreign direct investment?[J].Oxford Bulletin of Economics&Statistics,1998,60(1):99-106.
[11]Abraham F,Konings J,Slootmaekers V.FDI spillovers in the Chinese manufacturing sector[J].Economics of Transition,2010,18(1):143-182.
[12]牛卫平.国际外包陷阱产生机理及其跨越研究[J].中国工业经济,2012(5):109-121.
[13]张平.FDI抑制了中国服务业发展吗?[J].经济评论,2016(5):110-123+136.
[14]田泽永,江可申,江宏.FDI技术溢出对江苏制造业的影响——基于静态和动态面板数据的实证研究[J].科研管理,2009(1):121-128.
(1)数据来源:国家统计局。