基于灰色模型的某三甲医院门诊量与住院量预测
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摘要
目的探讨灰色GM(1,1)模型在某三甲医院门诊量与住院量预测中的应用,为医院合理配置资源提供管理决策依据。方法通过新疆某三甲医院信息部提取的2008年1月1日至2017年12月31日年门诊量和住院量数据,利用EXCEL2007数据库,运用灰色GM(1,1)模型进行预测。结果新疆某三甲医院2008年-2017年门诊量、住院量年均增幅分别为17.82%、11.91%;门诊量、住院量所拟合的灰色GM(1,1)模型检验统计量C值分别为0.092、0.016,P值均为1.0,模型精确等级均为1级,平均误差值分别为3.17%、3.89%;2018年-2022年门诊量和住院量年均增长速度分别为7.98%、6.81%。结论灰色GM(1,1)模型在医院门诊量和住院量预测应用效果较好,能够为医院合理配置资源提供管理决策依据,值得进一步推广应用。
Objectives To explore the application of grey GM(1,1) model in the outpatient and inpatient prediction of a third-grade a hospital, so as to provide management decision-making basis for rational allocation of resources. Methods The outpatient volume and inpatient volume data on January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2017 were extracted from the information department of a third-class class a hospital in Xinjiang, and the EXCEL2007 database was used to predict the outpatient volume and inpatient volume using the gray GM(1, 1) model. Results From 2008 to 2017, the outpatient visits and inpatient visits of a third-class first-class hospital in Xinjiang increased by 17.82% and 11.91% respectively. The C values of the gray GM(1, 1) model test statistics fitted for outpatient volume and hospitalization volume were 0.092 and 0.016, respectively, and the P values were both 1.0.The accuracy level of the model was all level 1, with an average error of 3.17% and 3.89%, respectively. From2018 to 2022, the annual growth rate of outpatient visits and hospitalization was 7.98% and 6.81%, respectively.Conclusions The grey GM(1,1) model has a good effect on the prediction of outpatient volume and inpatient volume in hospitals, and can provide management decision-making basis for rational allocation of resources in hospitals,which is worthy of further promotion and application.
Objectives To explore the application of grey GM(1,1) model in the outpatient and inpatient prediction of a third-grade a hospital, so as to provide management decision-making basis for rational allocation of resources. Methods The outpatient volume and inpatient volume data on January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2017 were extracted from the information department of a third-class class a hospital in Xinjiang, and the EXCEL2007 database was used to predict the outpatient volume and inpatient volume using the gray GM(1, 1) model. Results From 2008 to 2017, the outpatient visits and inpatient visits of a third-class first-class hospital in Xinjiang increased by 17.82% and 11.91% respectively. The C values of the gray GM(1, 1) model test statistics fitted for outpatient volume and hospitalization volume were 0.092 and 0.016, respectively, and the P values were both 1.0.The accuracy level of the model was all level 1, with an average error of 3.17% and 3.89%, respectively. From2018 to 2022, the annual growth rate of outpatient visits and hospitalization was 7.98% and 6.81%, respectively.Conclusions The grey GM(1,1) model has a good effect on the prediction of outpatient volume and inpatient volume in hospitals, and can provide management decision-making basis for rational allocation of resources in hospitals,which is worthy of further promotion and application.
引文
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[13]成枢,冯子帆,郭祥琳,等.不同灰色GM(1,1)模型在地铁沉降预测中的效果分析[J].测绘地理信息,2019,44(1):14-17.
[14]徐敏,王立兵,谢德尚.灰色系统GM(1,1)模型在地下热水水位预测中的应用-以河北省廊坊市为例[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2018,29(4):135-139.
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[2]杨婷,王玉贵,邓琼,等.基于GM(1,1)模型的住院人次预测[J].中国病案,2010,11(11):33-34.
[3]黄利娟,梁学柱,查君敬.应用自回归移动平均模型预测医院出院人数[J].中国病案,2014,15(9):35-36.
[4]李运明,吴凡,郑驰,等.某三甲综合医院门诊量ARIMA预测分析[J].中国病案,2014,15(8):53-55.
[5]邱林.应用ARIMA模型预测某三级甲等医院门诊量[J].中国医院统计,2018,25(1):77-79.
[6]张筠莉,杨祯山.现代医院门诊量的灰色RBF神经网络预测[J].计算机工程与应用,2010,46(29):225-228.
[7]邓聚龙.灰预测与灰决策[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2002:98.
[8]宋媛媛,王雷,熊甜,等.灰色预测模型GM(1,1)在手足口病发病率预测中的应用[J].公共卫生与预防医学,2018,29(5):51-54.
[9]李相荣,李汶广,王彩,等.基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的我国孕产妇死亡率预测分析[J].中国药物经济学,2018,(12):10-13.
[10]龚洁莎,赵大仁.基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的我国肺结核发病率的预测分析[J].中国卫生产业,2018,15(15):175-176.
[11]范引光,吕金伟,戴色莺,等.ARIMA模型与灰色预测模型GM(1,1)在HIV感染人数预测中的应用[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2012,16(12):1100-1103.
[12]吴利丰,高晓辉,付斌,等.灰色GM(1,1)模型研究综述[J].数学的实践与认识,2017,47(15):227-233.
[13]成枢,冯子帆,郭祥琳,等.不同灰色GM(1,1)模型在地铁沉降预测中的效果分析[J].测绘地理信息,2019,44(1):14-17.
[14]徐敏,王立兵,谢德尚.灰色系统GM(1,1)模型在地下热水水位预测中的应用-以河北省廊坊市为例[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2018,29(4):135-139.
[15]李朝阳,魏毅.基于MATLAB灰色GM(1,1)模型的大气污染物浓度预测[J].环境科学与管理,2012,37(1):48-53.
[16]张道文.基于GM(1,1)的道路交通事故预测[J].西华大学学报(自然科学版),2009,28(3):28-30.
[17]沈莲军.灰色GM(1,1)模型在南京居民消费预测中的应用[J].价值工程,2010,29(2):244-245.