动态系统累积变量判断中的关联启发式
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摘要
关联启发式是指在累积变量判断中,将存量与流量建立正相关关系,认为存量变化特征与流量变化特征具有相似性而导致判断偏差的思维模式。在多特征交互及简单动态系统任务判断中,关联启发式偏差以不同形式的S-F错误表现出来。作为一种内生性的、顽固的思维模式,对于关联启发式的心理机制提出了客体偏差、特征替代、不充分调整等多种观点解释。影响关联启发式的个体因素和情境因素的研究结果不尽一致。由于关联启发式偏差直接影响人对复杂系统的可持续性决策和行动,减少偏差策略的研究也已实现起步。本文系统总结和分析了关联启发式研究的发展脉络,针对澄清关联启发式的发生机制、系统考察关联启发式的影响因素及其相互作用、丰富和深化关联启发式的研究范式、开发减少关联启发式的有效途径等方面,提出了深化研究的方向和思路。
Correlation heuristic is a mental model in which judgment bias in understanding accumulation is aroused when people correlate accumulations and flows and assume that the patterns of accumulations and flows are similar. Correlation heuristic bias, termed as "stock-flow failure", can be found in understanding interactive dynamic systems. Due to lack of appreciation of the basic principles of accumulation, individuals tend to use this heuristic, where they intuitively assume that the pattern of stock highly correlates with the pattern of inflow or net flow. They attempted to match the stock's trajectory along with the inflow rate. Research shows that correlation heuristic bias is common in decision making for simple as well as multi-faceted decision making tasks. The heuristic has significant implications in business management decision making and is not conducive for people's sustainable decision-making. Results of research on the individual factors such as object bias, attribution substitution, and insufficient adjustment and contextual factors that may influence correlation heuristics are inconsistent. Empirical studies that explore factors impacting correlation heuristics have emerged. Effort to explore ways of reducing such bias has started. This article systematically reviewed the correlation heuristic literature and recommended areas to be further explored in future studies, including clarifying its inner mechanism, digging into potential influencing factors and their interactions, enhancing research paradigms, and developing methods that can reduce correlation heuristic.
Correlation heuristic is a mental model in which judgment bias in understanding accumulation is aroused when people correlate accumulations and flows and assume that the patterns of accumulations and flows are similar. Correlation heuristic bias, termed as "stock-flow failure", can be found in understanding interactive dynamic systems. Due to lack of appreciation of the basic principles of accumulation, individuals tend to use this heuristic, where they intuitively assume that the pattern of stock highly correlates with the pattern of inflow or net flow. They attempted to match the stock's trajectory along with the inflow rate. Research shows that correlation heuristic bias is common in decision making for simple as well as multi-faceted decision making tasks. The heuristic has significant implications in business management decision making and is not conducive for people's sustainable decision-making. Results of research on the individual factors such as object bias, attribution substitution, and insufficient adjustment and contextual factors that may influence correlation heuristics are inconsistent. Empirical studies that explore factors impacting correlation heuristics have emerged. Effort to explore ways of reducing such bias has started. This article systematically reviewed the correlation heuristic literature and recommended areas to be further explored in future studies, including clarifying its inner mechanism, digging into potential influencing factors and their interactions, enhancing research paradigms, and developing methods that can reduce correlation heuristic.
引文
张静芳.(2007).供应链中“牛鞭效应”案例分析及解决方法研究.物流科技,30(7),73-76.
Bonner,C.,&Newell,B.R.(2010).In conflict with ourselves?An investigation of heuristic and analytic processes in decision making.Memory&Cognition,38(2),186-196.
Brehmer,B.(1990).Strategies in real-time,dynamic decision making.In R.M.,Hogerth(Ed.),Insights in decision making(pp.262-279).Chicago:University of Chicago Press.
Brunstein,A.,Gonzalez,C.,&Kanter,S.(2010).Effects of domain experience in the stock-flow failure.System Dynamics Review,26(4),347-354.
Chen,X.(2007).The object bias and the study of scientific revolutions:Lessons from developmental psychology.Philosophical Psychology,20(4),479-503.
Chen,X.(2011).Why do people misunderstand climate change?Heuristics,mental models and ontological assumptions.Climatic Change,108(1-2),31-46.
Cronin,M.A.,&Gonzalez,C.(2007).Understanding the building blocks of dynamics system.System Dynamics Review,23(1),1-17.
Cronin,M.A.,Gonzalez,C.,&Sterman,J.D.(2009).Why don’t well-educated adults understand accumulation?Achallenge to researchers,educators,and citizens.Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,108(1),116-130.
Diehl,D.,&Sterman,J.D.(1995).Effects of feedback complexity on dynamic decision making.Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,62(2),198-215.
Dutt,V.,&Gonzalez,C.(2012a).Decisions from experience reduce misconceptions about climate change.Journal of Environmental Psychology,32(1),19-29.
Dutt,V.,&Gonzalez,C.(2012b).Human control of climate change.Climatic Change,111(3-4),497-518.
Dutt,V.,&Gonzalez,C.(2013).Reducing the linear perception of nonlinearity:Use of a physical representation.Journal of Behavioral Decision Making,26(1),51-67.
Eberhardt-Toth,E.,&Wasieleski,D.M.(2013).A cognitive elaboration model of sustainability decision making:Investigating financial managers’orientation toward environmental issues.Journal of Business Ethics,117,735-751.
Fischer,H.,&Gonzalez,C.(2016).Making sense of dynamic systems:How our understanding of stocks and flows depends on a global perspective.Cognitive Science,40,496-512.
Forrester,J.W.(1961).Industrial dynamics.Cambridge:MIT Press.
Frederick,S.(2005).Cognitive reflection and decision making.Journal of Economic Perspectives,19(4),25-42.
Gallego-álvarez,I.,&Ortas,E.(2017).Corporate environmental sustainability reporting in the context of national cultures:A quantile regression approach.International Business Review,26,337-353.
Gavirneni,S.,&Isen,A.(2010).Anatomy of a newsvendor decision:Observations from a verbal protocol analysis.Production&Operations Management,19(4),453-462.
Gonzalez,C.,&Wong,H.-Y.(2012).Understanding stocks and flows through analogy.System Dynamics Review,28(1),3-27.
Guy,S.,Kashima,Y.,Walker,I.,&O’Neill,S.(2013).Comparing the atmosphere to a bathtub:Effectiveness of analogy for reasoning about accumulation.Climatic Change,121(4),579-594.
Ho.T.-H.,Camerer,C.,&Weigelt,K.(1998).Iterated dominance and iterated best response in experimental“p-beauty contests”.American Economic Review,88(4),947-969.
Hoppe,E.I.,&Kusterer,D.J.(2011).Behavioral biases and cognitive reflection.Economics Letters,110(2),97-100.
Jensen,E.,&Brehmer,B.(2003).Understanding and control of a simple dynamic system.System Dynamics Review,19(2),119-137.
Kahneman,D.,&Frederick,S.(2002).Representativeness revisited:Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment.In T.Gilovich,D.Griffin,&D.Kahneman(Eds.),Heuristics and biases:The psychology of intuitive judgment(pp.49-81).New York,NY,USA:Cambridge University Press.
Kainz,D.,&Ossimitz,G.(2002).Can students learn stock-flow-thinking?An empirical investigation.Paper presented at the 2002 System Dynamics Conference,Palermo,Italy.
Korzilius,H.,Raaijmakers,S.,Rouwette,E.&Vennix,J.(2014).Thinking aloud while solving a stock-flow task:Surfacing the correlation heuristic and other reasoning patterns.Systems Research and Behavioral Science,31,268-279.
Lee,H.L.,Padmanabhan,V.,&Whang,S.(1997).Information distortion in a supply chain:The bullwhip effect.Management Science,43(4),546-558.
Macdonald,J.R.,Frommer,I.D.,&Karaesmen,I.Z.(2013).Decision making in the beer game and supply chain performance.Operations Management Research,6(3-4),119-126.
Meadows,D.H.,&Robinson,J.M.(2002).The electronic oracle:computer models and social decisions.System Dynamics Review,18(2),271-308.
Moritz,B.,Hill,A.V.,&Donohue,K.L.(2013).Individual differences in the newsvendor problem:Behavior and cognitive reflection.Journal of Operations Management,31(1-2),72-85.
Moutier,S.,&Houdé,O.(2003).Judgement under uncertainty and conjunction fallacy inhibition training.Thinking&Reasoning,9(3),185-201.
Newell,B.R.,Kary,A.,Moore,C.,&Gonzalez,C.(2013).Managing our debt:Changing context reduces misunderstanding of global warming.In M.Knauff,M.Pauen,N.Sebanz,&I.Wachsmuth(Eds.),Proceedings of the 35th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society(pp.3139-3144).Austin,TX:Cognitive Science Society.
Newell,B.R.,Kary,A.,Moore,C.,&Gonzalez,C.(2016).Managing the budget:Stock-flow reasoning and the CO2accumulation problem.Topics in Cognitive Science,8,138-159.
Newell,B.R.,&Pitman,A.J.(2010).The psychology of global warming.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,91(8),1003-1014.
Ossimitz,G.(2002).Stock-flow-thinking and reading stockflow-related graphs:An empirical investigation in dynamic thinking abilities.Paper presented at 20th International of the 2002 System Dynamics Conference,Palermo,Italy.
Pala,?.,&Vennix,J.A.M.(2005).Effect of system dynamics education on systems thinking inventory task performance.System Dynamics Review,21,147-172.
Ranney,M.A.,Clark,D.,Reinholz,D.L.,&Cohen,S.(2012).Changing global warming beliefs with scientific information:Knowledge,attitudes,and RTMD(Reinforced Theistic Manifest Destiny theory).In N.Miyake,D.Peebles,&R.P.Cooper(Eds.),Proceedings of the 34th annual meeting of the cognitive science society(pp.2228-2233).Austin,TX:Cognitive Science Society.
Smith,L.A.,&Genter,D.(2012).Using spatial analogy to facilitate graph learning.In C.Stachniss,K.Schill,&D.Uttall(Eds.),Proceedings of the 2012 international conference on spatial cognition VIII(pp.196-209).Berlin,Germany:Springer.
Stave,K.A.,Beck,A.&Galvan,C.(2016).Improving learners’understanding of environmental accumulations through simulation.Simulation and Gaming,46(3-4),270-292.
Sterman,J.D.(1989a).Modeling managerial behavior:Misperceptions of feedback in a dynamic decision making experiment.Management Science,35(3),321-339.
Sterman,J.D.(1989b).Misperceptions of feedback in dynamic decision making.Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,43(3),301-335.
Sterman,J.D.(2002).All models are wrong:Reflections on becoming a systems scientist.System Dynamics Review,18,501-531.
Sterman,J.D.(2008).Risk communication on climate:Mental models and mass balance.Science,322(5901),532-533.
Sterman,J.D.(2010).Does formal system dynamics training improve people’s understanding of accumulation?System Dynamics Review,26,316-334.
Sterman,J.D.(2012).Sustaining sustainability:Creating a systems science in a fragmented academy and polarized world.In M.P.Weinstein&R.E.Turner(Eds.),Sustainability science:The emerging paradigm and the urban environment(pp.21-58).New York,NY:Springer.
Sterman,J.D.,&Sweeney,L.B.(2002).Cloudy skies:Assessing public understanding of global warming.System Dynamics Review,18(2),207-240.
Sterman,J.D.,&Sweeney,L.B.(2007).Understanding public complacency about climate change:Adults’mental models of climate change violate conservation of matter.Climatic Change,80(3-4),213-238.
Strohhecker,J.,&Gr??ler,A.(2015).Performance in tangible and in cognitive stock-flow tasks:Closer than expected.Simulation&Gaming,46(3-4),230-254.
Sweeney,L.B.,&Sterman,J.D.(2000).Bathtub dynamics:Initial results of a systems thinking inventory.System Dynamics Review,16(4),249-286.
Weinhardt,J.M.,Hendijani,R.,Harman,J.L.,Steel,P.,&Gonzalez,C.(2015).How analytic reasoning style and global thinking relate to understanding stocks and flows.Journal of Operations Management,39-40,23-30.
Bonner,C.,&Newell,B.R.(2010).In conflict with ourselves?An investigation of heuristic and analytic processes in decision making.Memory&Cognition,38(2),186-196.
Brehmer,B.(1990).Strategies in real-time,dynamic decision making.In R.M.,Hogerth(Ed.),Insights in decision making(pp.262-279).Chicago:University of Chicago Press.
Brunstein,A.,Gonzalez,C.,&Kanter,S.(2010).Effects of domain experience in the stock-flow failure.System Dynamics Review,26(4),347-354.
Chen,X.(2007).The object bias and the study of scientific revolutions:Lessons from developmental psychology.Philosophical Psychology,20(4),479-503.
Chen,X.(2011).Why do people misunderstand climate change?Heuristics,mental models and ontological assumptions.Climatic Change,108(1-2),31-46.
Cronin,M.A.,&Gonzalez,C.(2007).Understanding the building blocks of dynamics system.System Dynamics Review,23(1),1-17.
Cronin,M.A.,Gonzalez,C.,&Sterman,J.D.(2009).Why don’t well-educated adults understand accumulation?Achallenge to researchers,educators,and citizens.Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,108(1),116-130.
Diehl,D.,&Sterman,J.D.(1995).Effects of feedback complexity on dynamic decision making.Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,62(2),198-215.
Dutt,V.,&Gonzalez,C.(2012a).Decisions from experience reduce misconceptions about climate change.Journal of Environmental Psychology,32(1),19-29.
Dutt,V.,&Gonzalez,C.(2012b).Human control of climate change.Climatic Change,111(3-4),497-518.
Dutt,V.,&Gonzalez,C.(2013).Reducing the linear perception of nonlinearity:Use of a physical representation.Journal of Behavioral Decision Making,26(1),51-67.
Eberhardt-Toth,E.,&Wasieleski,D.M.(2013).A cognitive elaboration model of sustainability decision making:Investigating financial managers’orientation toward environmental issues.Journal of Business Ethics,117,735-751.
Fischer,H.,&Gonzalez,C.(2016).Making sense of dynamic systems:How our understanding of stocks and flows depends on a global perspective.Cognitive Science,40,496-512.
Forrester,J.W.(1961).Industrial dynamics.Cambridge:MIT Press.
Frederick,S.(2005).Cognitive reflection and decision making.Journal of Economic Perspectives,19(4),25-42.
Gallego-álvarez,I.,&Ortas,E.(2017).Corporate environmental sustainability reporting in the context of national cultures:A quantile regression approach.International Business Review,26,337-353.
Gavirneni,S.,&Isen,A.(2010).Anatomy of a newsvendor decision:Observations from a verbal protocol analysis.Production&Operations Management,19(4),453-462.
Gonzalez,C.,&Wong,H.-Y.(2012).Understanding stocks and flows through analogy.System Dynamics Review,28(1),3-27.
Guy,S.,Kashima,Y.,Walker,I.,&O’Neill,S.(2013).Comparing the atmosphere to a bathtub:Effectiveness of analogy for reasoning about accumulation.Climatic Change,121(4),579-594.
Ho.T.-H.,Camerer,C.,&Weigelt,K.(1998).Iterated dominance and iterated best response in experimental“p-beauty contests”.American Economic Review,88(4),947-969.
Hoppe,E.I.,&Kusterer,D.J.(2011).Behavioral biases and cognitive reflection.Economics Letters,110(2),97-100.
Jensen,E.,&Brehmer,B.(2003).Understanding and control of a simple dynamic system.System Dynamics Review,19(2),119-137.
Kahneman,D.,&Frederick,S.(2002).Representativeness revisited:Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment.In T.Gilovich,D.Griffin,&D.Kahneman(Eds.),Heuristics and biases:The psychology of intuitive judgment(pp.49-81).New York,NY,USA:Cambridge University Press.
Kainz,D.,&Ossimitz,G.(2002).Can students learn stock-flow-thinking?An empirical investigation.Paper presented at the 2002 System Dynamics Conference,Palermo,Italy.
Korzilius,H.,Raaijmakers,S.,Rouwette,E.&Vennix,J.(2014).Thinking aloud while solving a stock-flow task:Surfacing the correlation heuristic and other reasoning patterns.Systems Research and Behavioral Science,31,268-279.
Lee,H.L.,Padmanabhan,V.,&Whang,S.(1997).Information distortion in a supply chain:The bullwhip effect.Management Science,43(4),546-558.
Macdonald,J.R.,Frommer,I.D.,&Karaesmen,I.Z.(2013).Decision making in the beer game and supply chain performance.Operations Management Research,6(3-4),119-126.
Meadows,D.H.,&Robinson,J.M.(2002).The electronic oracle:computer models and social decisions.System Dynamics Review,18(2),271-308.
Moritz,B.,Hill,A.V.,&Donohue,K.L.(2013).Individual differences in the newsvendor problem:Behavior and cognitive reflection.Journal of Operations Management,31(1-2),72-85.
Moutier,S.,&Houdé,O.(2003).Judgement under uncertainty and conjunction fallacy inhibition training.Thinking&Reasoning,9(3),185-201.
Newell,B.R.,Kary,A.,Moore,C.,&Gonzalez,C.(2013).Managing our debt:Changing context reduces misunderstanding of global warming.In M.Knauff,M.Pauen,N.Sebanz,&I.Wachsmuth(Eds.),Proceedings of the 35th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society(pp.3139-3144).Austin,TX:Cognitive Science Society.
Newell,B.R.,Kary,A.,Moore,C.,&Gonzalez,C.(2016).Managing the budget:Stock-flow reasoning and the CO2accumulation problem.Topics in Cognitive Science,8,138-159.
Newell,B.R.,&Pitman,A.J.(2010).The psychology of global warming.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,91(8),1003-1014.
Ossimitz,G.(2002).Stock-flow-thinking and reading stockflow-related graphs:An empirical investigation in dynamic thinking abilities.Paper presented at 20th International of the 2002 System Dynamics Conference,Palermo,Italy.
Pala,?.,&Vennix,J.A.M.(2005).Effect of system dynamics education on systems thinking inventory task performance.System Dynamics Review,21,147-172.
Ranney,M.A.,Clark,D.,Reinholz,D.L.,&Cohen,S.(2012).Changing global warming beliefs with scientific information:Knowledge,attitudes,and RTMD(Reinforced Theistic Manifest Destiny theory).In N.Miyake,D.Peebles,&R.P.Cooper(Eds.),Proceedings of the 34th annual meeting of the cognitive science society(pp.2228-2233).Austin,TX:Cognitive Science Society.
Smith,L.A.,&Genter,D.(2012).Using spatial analogy to facilitate graph learning.In C.Stachniss,K.Schill,&D.Uttall(Eds.),Proceedings of the 2012 international conference on spatial cognition VIII(pp.196-209).Berlin,Germany:Springer.
Stave,K.A.,Beck,A.&Galvan,C.(2016).Improving learners’understanding of environmental accumulations through simulation.Simulation and Gaming,46(3-4),270-292.
Sterman,J.D.(1989a).Modeling managerial behavior:Misperceptions of feedback in a dynamic decision making experiment.Management Science,35(3),321-339.
Sterman,J.D.(1989b).Misperceptions of feedback in dynamic decision making.Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,43(3),301-335.
Sterman,J.D.(2002).All models are wrong:Reflections on becoming a systems scientist.System Dynamics Review,18,501-531.
Sterman,J.D.(2008).Risk communication on climate:Mental models and mass balance.Science,322(5901),532-533.
Sterman,J.D.(2010).Does formal system dynamics training improve people’s understanding of accumulation?System Dynamics Review,26,316-334.
Sterman,J.D.(2012).Sustaining sustainability:Creating a systems science in a fragmented academy and polarized world.In M.P.Weinstein&R.E.Turner(Eds.),Sustainability science:The emerging paradigm and the urban environment(pp.21-58).New York,NY:Springer.
Sterman,J.D.,&Sweeney,L.B.(2002).Cloudy skies:Assessing public understanding of global warming.System Dynamics Review,18(2),207-240.
Sterman,J.D.,&Sweeney,L.B.(2007).Understanding public complacency about climate change:Adults’mental models of climate change violate conservation of matter.Climatic Change,80(3-4),213-238.
Strohhecker,J.,&Gr??ler,A.(2015).Performance in tangible and in cognitive stock-flow tasks:Closer than expected.Simulation&Gaming,46(3-4),230-254.
Sweeney,L.B.,&Sterman,J.D.(2000).Bathtub dynamics:Initial results of a systems thinking inventory.System Dynamics Review,16(4),249-286.
Weinhardt,J.M.,Hendijani,R.,Harman,J.L.,Steel,P.,&Gonzalez,C.(2015).How analytic reasoning style and global thinking relate to understanding stocks and flows.Journal of Operations Management,39-40,23-30.