基于正态云模型的区域矿产资源可持续力评价
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摘要
矿产资源是人类生存和社会可持续发展的基础,研究区域矿产资源的可持续力发展水平、能力和发展趋势,不仅仅是个地区问题,更应是资源保障问题,因而对我国资源承载能力和可持续发展具有十分重要的意义。针对当前区域矿产资源可持续力定量测度研究较少,且现有评价方法不能同时兼顾指标的模糊性与随机性的难题,该研究将正态云模型引入区域矿产资源可持续力综合评价。从资源、经济、环境(含人口)三方面构建矿产资源可持续力评价指标体系,基于正态云模型结合改进的层次分析法,不仅使得指标特点得以保真,而且各指标权重的计算量也大大减少,提高了评价方法的适用性。以湖南省2010—2015年间的矿产资源为研究对象,进行矿产资源可持续力定量测度。结果显示,6年间,湖南省矿产资源可持续力状态虽然始终处于III级(一般)状态,但可持续力综合值从2.600 0上升到3.070 8,区域矿产资源可持续力水平有日趋增加态势;个别评价指标仍处于较弱状态,单位GDP能耗量、万元工业产值中矿业产值比率、人口密度单因子得分值均<2.5,表明这些指标相对较弱,有待进一步采取相关措施进行改善。该评价结果与实地调研基本吻合,表明该方法是可行的。本方法在定量评价中能兼顾随机性和模糊性,且计算过程简便,结果可靠,能为矿产资源定量评价提供参考。
Mineral resources are the foundation of human survival and the social sustainable development. The study on sustainable development level,ability and development trend of regional mineral resources is not only a regional question but also should be a resources security issue. Thus,it has a great significance to China's resources carrying capacity and sustainable development. There is less research in regional sustainable power assessment of mineral resources,and at the same time,the existing evaluation methods of sustainable power of mineral resources cannot describe the fuzziness and randomness of evaluation indicators. In this paper,the mineral resources sustainable power evaluation index system that has been built included three aspects of resources,economy and environment( including population) and normal cloud model was introduced into regional mineral resources sustainable power evaluation. The evaluation model using normal cloud theory integrated with the improved AHP was established and this model was used to evaluate the sustainable power of mineral resources in Hunan Province. Normal cloud model integrated with improved AHP used in evaluation could help the indicators to maintain their original features and reduce the calculation amount significantly. The evaluation results showed that sustainable power of mineral resources status in Hunan Province was always at the middle level but it has increased from 2. 600 0 to3. 070 8 from 2010 to 2015. This indicated that sustainable power of mineral resources has improved from 2010 to 2015. Evaluation value of the energy intensity per GDP,the proportion of mining product accounting for ten thousand yuan industrial product and the population density were less than 2. 5,and it indicated that these three factors in Hunan were comparatively weak and some measures should be taken. The evaluation results were in consistent with site survey results which proved this method was applicable. This method integrated randomness and fuzziness and reduced the computation amount; besides,it gave a reliable result,and provided a reference for quantitative evaluation of sustainable power of mineral resources.
Mineral resources are the foundation of human survival and the social sustainable development. The study on sustainable development level,ability and development trend of regional mineral resources is not only a regional question but also should be a resources security issue. Thus,it has a great significance to China's resources carrying capacity and sustainable development. There is less research in regional sustainable power assessment of mineral resources,and at the same time,the existing evaluation methods of sustainable power of mineral resources cannot describe the fuzziness and randomness of evaluation indicators. In this paper,the mineral resources sustainable power evaluation index system that has been built included three aspects of resources,economy and environment( including population) and normal cloud model was introduced into regional mineral resources sustainable power evaluation. The evaluation model using normal cloud theory integrated with the improved AHP was established and this model was used to evaluate the sustainable power of mineral resources in Hunan Province. Normal cloud model integrated with improved AHP used in evaluation could help the indicators to maintain their original features and reduce the calculation amount significantly. The evaluation results showed that sustainable power of mineral resources status in Hunan Province was always at the middle level but it has increased from 2. 600 0 to3. 070 8 from 2010 to 2015. This indicated that sustainable power of mineral resources has improved from 2010 to 2015. Evaluation value of the energy intensity per GDP,the proportion of mining product accounting for ten thousand yuan industrial product and the population density were less than 2. 5,and it indicated that these three factors in Hunan were comparatively weak and some measures should be taken. The evaluation results were in consistent with site survey results which proved this method was applicable. This method integrated randomness and fuzziness and reduced the computation amount; besides,it gave a reliable result,and provided a reference for quantitative evaluation of sustainable power of mineral resources.
引文
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[8]杨凌,元方,李国平.可持续发展指标体系综述[J].统计与决策,2007(10):56-59.[YANG Ling,YUAN Fang,LI Gouping.Sustainable development index system review[J].Statistics&decision,2007(10):56-59.]
[9]黄寰,尹斯斯,雷佑新.我国矿产资源可持续发展水平分析与预测[J].西南民族大学学报(人文社会科学版),2015(7):146-150.[HUANG Huan,YIN Sisi,LEI Youxin.The sustainable development of mineral resources of our country level analysis and prediction[J].Journal of Southwest University for Nationalities(humanities and social sciences edition,2015(7):146-150.]
[10]聂宏展,聂耸,乔怡,等.基于主成分分析法的输电网规划方案综合决策[J].电网技术,2010,34(6):134-137.[NIE Hongzhan,NIE Song,QIAO Yi,et al.Comprehensive decisionmaking of alternative transmission network planning based on principal component analysis[J].Power system technology,2010,34(6):134-137.]
[11]黄璨,邓宏兵,李小帆.基于动态因子分析法的四川省旅游业竞争力实证分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(8):1011-1018.[HUANG Can,DENG Hongbing,LI Xiaofan.An empirical analysis on tourism competitiveness based on the dynamic factor analysis in Sichuan[J].Resources and environment in the Yangtze Basin,2013,22(8):1011-1018.]
[12]刘俊华,罗隆福,张志文.基于模糊集对分析法的电能质量综合评估[J].电网技术,2012,36(7):81-85.[LIU Junhua,LUO Longfu,ZHANG Zhiwen.Comprehensive evaluation of power quality based on Fuzzy Set Pair analysis[J].Power system technology,2012,36(7):81-85.]
[13]齐义军,付桂军.典型资源型区域可持续发展评价—基于模糊综合评价研究方法[J].中央民族大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2012,39(3):117-120.[QI Yijun,FU Guijun.Evaluation to the sustainable development in the typical resource regions based on Fuzzy Comprehensive evaluation method[J].Journal of Minzu University of China(human and social sciences edition),2012,39(3):117-120.]
[14]VIDAL L A,MARLE F,BOCQUET J C.Using a Delphi process and the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)to evaluate the complexity of projects[J].Expert systems with applications,2011,38(5):5388-5405.
[15]姜钰,贺雪涛.基于系统动力学的林下经济可持续发展战略仿真分析[J].中国软科学,2014(1):105-114.[JIANG Yu,HE Xuetao.A simulation analysis on sustainable development strategy for under-forest economy based on System Dynamics[J].China soft science,2014(1):105-114.]
[16]孙晓东,焦玥,胡劲松.基于灰色关联度和理想解法的决策方法研究[J].中国管理科学,2005,13(4):63-65.[SUN Xiaodong,JIAO Yue,HU Jingsong.Research on decision-making method based on Gray Correlation Degree and TOPSIS[J].Chinese journal of management science,2005,13(4):63-65.]
[17]罗毅,李昱龙.基于熵权法和灰色关联分析法的输电网规划方案综合决策[J].电网技术,2013,37(1):77-81.[LUO Yi,LI Yulong.Comprehensive decision-making of transmission network planning based on Entropy Weight and Grey Relational analysis[J].Power system technology,2013,37(1):77-81.]
[18]李德毅,杜鹢.不确定性人工智能[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2005.[LI Deyi,DU Yi.Uncertainty in artificial intelligence[M].Beijing:National Defense Industry Press,2005.]
[19]湖南省国土资源厅.湖南省矿产资源总体规划[R].2008.[Department of Land and Resources of Hunan Province,China.Overall planning of mineral resources of Hunan Province[R].2008.]
[20]陈莲芳,严良.矿产资源可持续发展研究综述[J].科学管理研究,2008,26(4):25-29.[CHEN Liangfang,YAN Liang.A comprehensive review of sustainable development of mineral resources[J].Scientific management research,2008,26(4):25-29.]
[21]AZAPAGIC A.Developing a framework for sustainable development indicators for the mining and minerals industry[J].Journal of cleaner production,2004,12(6):639-662.
[22]张杨,严金明,江平,等.基于正态云模型的湖北省土地资源生态安全评价[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(22):252-258.[ZHANG Yang,YAN Jinming,JIANG Ping,et al.Normal cloud model based evaluation of land resources ecological security in Hubei Province[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2013,29(22):252-258.]
[23]高明美,孙涛,赵天燕,等.正态云模型在皖江地区土地生态安全评价中的应用[J].湖南农业大学学报(自然科学版),2015,41(2):196-201.[GAO Mingmei,SUN tao,ZHAO Tianyan,et al.Application of normal cloud model on the comprehensive assessment of land eco-security in Wanjiang District[J].Journal of Hunan Agricultural University(natural sciences edition),2015,41(2):196-201.]
[24]龚艳冰,张继国.基于正态云模型和熵权的人口发展现代化程度综合评价[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(1):138-143.[GONG Yanbing,ZHANG Jiguo.Comprehensive assessment on population development degree of modernization based on normal cloud model and entropy weight[J].China population,resources and environment,2012,22(1):138-143.]
[25]周启刚,张晓媛,王兆林.基于正态云模型的三峡库区土地利用生态风险评价[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(23):289-297.[ZHOU Qigang,ZHANG Xiaoyuan,WANG Zhaolin.Land use ecological risk evaluation in Three Gorges Reservoir Area based on Normal Cloud model[J].Transactions of the Chinese society of agricultural engineering,2014,30(23):289-297.]
[26]薛黎明,龚爽,崔超群,等.主客观权重相结合的湖南省矿产资源可持续力综合评价[J].中国矿业,2015,24(9):44-47.[XUE Liming,GONG Shuang,CUI Chaoqun,et al.Sustainable power comprehensive evaluation of Hunan mineral resources combining subjective weight with objective weight[J].China mining magazine,2015,24(9):44-47.]
[27]景跃军,陈英姿.关于资源承载力的研究综述及思考[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2006,16(5):11-14.[JING Yuejun,CHEN Yingzi.Review and thinking on the research of the resources carrying capacity[J].China population,resources and environment,2006,16(5):11-14.]
[2]刘东,封志明,杨艳昭,等.中国粮食生产发展特征及土地资源承载力空间格局现状[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(7):1-6.[LIU Dong,FENG Zhiming,YANG Yanzhao,et al.Characteristics of grain production and spatial pattern of land carrying capacity of China[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2011,27(7):1-6.]
[3]姜秋香,付强,王子龙.基于粒子群优化投影寻踪模型的区域土地资源承载力综合评价[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(11):319-324.[JIANG Qiuxiang,FU Qiang,WANG Zilong.Comprehensive evaluation of regional land resources carrying capacity based on projection pursuit model optimized by particle swarm optimization[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2011,27(11):319-324.]
[4]段新光,栾芳芳.基于模糊综合评判的新疆水资源承载力评价[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(3):119-122.[DUAN Xinguang,LUAN Fangfang.Evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Xinjiang based on fuzzy comprehensive model[J].China population,resources and environment,2014,24(3):119-122.]
[5]余敬.矿产资源可持续力评估[M].武汉:中国地质大学出版社,2004:56-97.[YU Jing.The evaluation of mineral resources sustainable power[M].Wuhan:China University of Geosciences Press,2004:56-97.]
[6]陈军,成金华.中国矿产资源开发利用的环境影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(3):111-112.[CHEN Jun,CHENG Jinhua.Environmental impacts caused by the development and utilization of mineral resources in China[J].China population,resources and environment,2015,25(3):111-112.]
[7]覃初礼,吴郭泉.基于网络分析法的资源可持续开发利用评价指标体系[J].金属矿山,2010(4):41-43.[QIN Chuli,WU Guoquan.Based on analytic Network Process for sustainable exploitation and utilization of resources[J].Metal mine,2010(4):41-43.]
[8]杨凌,元方,李国平.可持续发展指标体系综述[J].统计与决策,2007(10):56-59.[YANG Ling,YUAN Fang,LI Gouping.Sustainable development index system review[J].Statistics&decision,2007(10):56-59.]
[9]黄寰,尹斯斯,雷佑新.我国矿产资源可持续发展水平分析与预测[J].西南民族大学学报(人文社会科学版),2015(7):146-150.[HUANG Huan,YIN Sisi,LEI Youxin.The sustainable development of mineral resources of our country level analysis and prediction[J].Journal of Southwest University for Nationalities(humanities and social sciences edition,2015(7):146-150.]
[10]聂宏展,聂耸,乔怡,等.基于主成分分析法的输电网规划方案综合决策[J].电网技术,2010,34(6):134-137.[NIE Hongzhan,NIE Song,QIAO Yi,et al.Comprehensive decisionmaking of alternative transmission network planning based on principal component analysis[J].Power system technology,2010,34(6):134-137.]
[11]黄璨,邓宏兵,李小帆.基于动态因子分析法的四川省旅游业竞争力实证分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(8):1011-1018.[HUANG Can,DENG Hongbing,LI Xiaofan.An empirical analysis on tourism competitiveness based on the dynamic factor analysis in Sichuan[J].Resources and environment in the Yangtze Basin,2013,22(8):1011-1018.]
[12]刘俊华,罗隆福,张志文.基于模糊集对分析法的电能质量综合评估[J].电网技术,2012,36(7):81-85.[LIU Junhua,LUO Longfu,ZHANG Zhiwen.Comprehensive evaluation of power quality based on Fuzzy Set Pair analysis[J].Power system technology,2012,36(7):81-85.]
[13]齐义军,付桂军.典型资源型区域可持续发展评价—基于模糊综合评价研究方法[J].中央民族大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2012,39(3):117-120.[QI Yijun,FU Guijun.Evaluation to the sustainable development in the typical resource regions based on Fuzzy Comprehensive evaluation method[J].Journal of Minzu University of China(human and social sciences edition),2012,39(3):117-120.]
[14]VIDAL L A,MARLE F,BOCQUET J C.Using a Delphi process and the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)to evaluate the complexity of projects[J].Expert systems with applications,2011,38(5):5388-5405.
[15]姜钰,贺雪涛.基于系统动力学的林下经济可持续发展战略仿真分析[J].中国软科学,2014(1):105-114.[JIANG Yu,HE Xuetao.A simulation analysis on sustainable development strategy for under-forest economy based on System Dynamics[J].China soft science,2014(1):105-114.]
[16]孙晓东,焦玥,胡劲松.基于灰色关联度和理想解法的决策方法研究[J].中国管理科学,2005,13(4):63-65.[SUN Xiaodong,JIAO Yue,HU Jingsong.Research on decision-making method based on Gray Correlation Degree and TOPSIS[J].Chinese journal of management science,2005,13(4):63-65.]
[17]罗毅,李昱龙.基于熵权法和灰色关联分析法的输电网规划方案综合决策[J].电网技术,2013,37(1):77-81.[LUO Yi,LI Yulong.Comprehensive decision-making of transmission network planning based on Entropy Weight and Grey Relational analysis[J].Power system technology,2013,37(1):77-81.]
[18]李德毅,杜鹢.不确定性人工智能[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2005.[LI Deyi,DU Yi.Uncertainty in artificial intelligence[M].Beijing:National Defense Industry Press,2005.]
[19]湖南省国土资源厅.湖南省矿产资源总体规划[R].2008.[Department of Land and Resources of Hunan Province,China.Overall planning of mineral resources of Hunan Province[R].2008.]
[20]陈莲芳,严良.矿产资源可持续发展研究综述[J].科学管理研究,2008,26(4):25-29.[CHEN Liangfang,YAN Liang.A comprehensive review of sustainable development of mineral resources[J].Scientific management research,2008,26(4):25-29.]
[21]AZAPAGIC A.Developing a framework for sustainable development indicators for the mining and minerals industry[J].Journal of cleaner production,2004,12(6):639-662.
[22]张杨,严金明,江平,等.基于正态云模型的湖北省土地资源生态安全评价[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(22):252-258.[ZHANG Yang,YAN Jinming,JIANG Ping,et al.Normal cloud model based evaluation of land resources ecological security in Hubei Province[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2013,29(22):252-258.]
[23]高明美,孙涛,赵天燕,等.正态云模型在皖江地区土地生态安全评价中的应用[J].湖南农业大学学报(自然科学版),2015,41(2):196-201.[GAO Mingmei,SUN tao,ZHAO Tianyan,et al.Application of normal cloud model on the comprehensive assessment of land eco-security in Wanjiang District[J].Journal of Hunan Agricultural University(natural sciences edition),2015,41(2):196-201.]
[24]龚艳冰,张继国.基于正态云模型和熵权的人口发展现代化程度综合评价[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(1):138-143.[GONG Yanbing,ZHANG Jiguo.Comprehensive assessment on population development degree of modernization based on normal cloud model and entropy weight[J].China population,resources and environment,2012,22(1):138-143.]
[25]周启刚,张晓媛,王兆林.基于正态云模型的三峡库区土地利用生态风险评价[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(23):289-297.[ZHOU Qigang,ZHANG Xiaoyuan,WANG Zhaolin.Land use ecological risk evaluation in Three Gorges Reservoir Area based on Normal Cloud model[J].Transactions of the Chinese society of agricultural engineering,2014,30(23):289-297.]
[26]薛黎明,龚爽,崔超群,等.主客观权重相结合的湖南省矿产资源可持续力综合评价[J].中国矿业,2015,24(9):44-47.[XUE Liming,GONG Shuang,CUI Chaoqun,et al.Sustainable power comprehensive evaluation of Hunan mineral resources combining subjective weight with objective weight[J].China mining magazine,2015,24(9):44-47.]
[27]景跃军,陈英姿.关于资源承载力的研究综述及思考[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2006,16(5):11-14.[JING Yuejun,CHEN Yingzi.Review and thinking on the research of the resources carrying capacity[J].China population,resources and environment,2006,16(5):11-14.]