交易效率对内生贸易理论的非线性影响——理论模型与实证检验
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摘要
文章发展了一个超边际模型,验证了交易效率对贸易发展及经济增长的正向影响,并且证明了交易效率对贸易发展及经济增长的影响是阶段性的。在交易效率较低时,交易效率对经济增长的影响是"加速"的,随后进入"中间区域",交易效率在越过"中间区域"后,对经济增长的影响又进入"加速"阶段。文章利用1990-2014年世界经济发展指标249个国家的数据验证了这个结论,并且佐证了"中等收入陷阱"的存在性。文章还认为中国对非制度性交易效率的提升应该采取一个偏向性战略,同时需要加强对制度性交易效率的改善。只有这样,才能越过"中间区域"进入"加速阶段"。
In this paper, we develop an infra-marginal model to verify that the economic growth and the development of trade is positively related to the transaction efficiency, and it also proves that the effect of the transaction efficiency on the economic growth is in stages. When the transaction efficiency is low,the effect of the transaction efficiency is "accelerated", then the "middle area",the efficiency of the transaction is over the "middle area", the impact of the transaction efficiency is also in the "acceleration" stage. This conclusion is verified by the data of 249 countries in the world economic development index of1990-2014, and approves the existence of "middle income trap". This paper argues that China should adopt a favorablestrategy to improve the non-institutional transaction efficiency, as well as strengthen the efficiency of institutional trading,and in this way we can cross the "middle zone" into the "accelerated phase".
In this paper, we develop an infra-marginal model to verify that the economic growth and the development of trade is positively related to the transaction efficiency, and it also proves that the effect of the transaction efficiency on the economic growth is in stages. When the transaction efficiency is low,the effect of the transaction efficiency is "accelerated", then the "middle area",the efficiency of the transaction is over the "middle area", the impact of the transaction efficiency is also in the "acceleration" stage. This conclusion is verified by the data of 249 countries in the world economic development index of1990-2014, and approves the existence of "middle income trap". This paper argues that China should adopt a favorablestrategy to improve the non-institutional transaction efficiency, as well as strengthen the efficiency of institutional trading,and in this way we can cross the "middle zone" into the "accelerated phase".
引文
崔维军、陈凤、罗玉,(2014)“中国与主要创新经济体创新绩效的国际比较--两阶段创新模型的实证分析,”《科学学与科学技术管理》第12期,第10-18页。
高帆,(2012)“交易效率的测度及其跨国比较:一个指标体系,”《财贸经济》第5期,第104-110页。
李敬、冉光和、温涛,(2007)“金融影响经济增长的内在机制,”《金融研究》第6期,第80-99页。
李萍、马庆,(2013)“我国交易行业交易效率及其影响因素,”《财经科学》第4期,第54-65页。
刘文超、白永秀,(2011)“分工、交易效率与城乡二元经济转化,”《当代经济科学》第5期,第60-66页。
祁春节、赵玉,(2009)“基于交易效率、分工和契约选择视角的农民增收问题研究,”《经济评论》第5期,第68-75页。
薛继亮、李录堂,(2009)“农民创业和分工演进、交易效率,”《山西财经大学学报》第9期,第51-57页。
赵红军、尹伯成、孙楚仁,(2006)“交易效率、工业化与城市化--一个理解中国经济内生发展的理论模型与经验证据,”《经济学(季刊)》第4期,第1041-1066页。
杨小凯,(2003)《发展经济学:超边际与边际分析》,社会科学文献出版社。
周大启,(2016)“中国企业在非洲投资效益研究,”中国人民大学博士论文。
Borland,J.,and Yang X.K.,(1992)“Specialization and a New Approach to Economic Organization and Growth,”The American Economic Review 82(2),386-391.
C.R.Sun,G.Q.Tian,T.Zhang,(2013)“An Application of the Melitz Model to Chinese Firms,”Review of Development Economics 17(3),494-509.
Dixit.A.K.,and Stiglitz.J.E.,(1977)“Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity,”American Economic Review 67(3),297-308.
Krugman,P.,(1979)“Increasing Returns,Monopolistic Competition,and International Trade,”Journal of International Economics 9(4),469-479.
Krugman,P.R.,(1980)“Scale Economies,Product Differentiation,and the Pattern of Trade,”American Economic Review 70(5),950-959.
Krugman,P R.,(1981)“Intraindustry Specialization and the Gains from Trade,”Journal of Political Economy89(5),959-973.
Melitz,M.J.,(2003)“The Impact of Trade on Intra-industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity,”Econometrica 71(6),1695-1725.
Melitz,M.J.,and Redding,S.,(2015)“New Trade Models,New Welfare Implications,”American Economic Review 105(3),1105-1146.
Xiaokai Yang,Borland J.,(1991)“A Microeconomic Mechanism for Economic Growth,”Journal of Political Economy 99(3),460-482.
Xiokai Yang,Ben J.Heijdra,(1993)“Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity:Comment,”The American Economic Review 83(1),295-301.
(1)以下最大化问题基于分工经济,完全自给自足经济将在第二部分再讨论,公式的具体涵义可见杨小凯(2003)。
(2)这里假定了贸易品与非贸易品对称性,因此具有相同的固定学习费用。
(3)更详细的解释可以参见杨小凯:《发展经济学:超边际与边际分析》,社会科学文献出版社2003年版。
(4)为了简化,我们在一般均衡的分析中,将相对价格p1/pd=1省略了。
(5)一般情况下,1-Am-ρ>0在现实经济中不大可能存在,可获得的消费品总数一般相对较大,而固定学习费用A接近于0的可能性不大,因此我们可以认为dU/dk>0恒成立。
(6)ρ较大,代表产品之间的替代弹性较大,因此当我们假设替代弹性参数ρ相对较大时,图2左半部分的情况不会出现,而且完全竞争市场的假设也表明了产品替代弹性较大,因此图2右半部分更加符合完全竞争市场假设。
高帆,(2012)“交易效率的测度及其跨国比较:一个指标体系,”《财贸经济》第5期,第104-110页。
李敬、冉光和、温涛,(2007)“金融影响经济增长的内在机制,”《金融研究》第6期,第80-99页。
李萍、马庆,(2013)“我国交易行业交易效率及其影响因素,”《财经科学》第4期,第54-65页。
刘文超、白永秀,(2011)“分工、交易效率与城乡二元经济转化,”《当代经济科学》第5期,第60-66页。
祁春节、赵玉,(2009)“基于交易效率、分工和契约选择视角的农民增收问题研究,”《经济评论》第5期,第68-75页。
薛继亮、李录堂,(2009)“农民创业和分工演进、交易效率,”《山西财经大学学报》第9期,第51-57页。
赵红军、尹伯成、孙楚仁,(2006)“交易效率、工业化与城市化--一个理解中国经济内生发展的理论模型与经验证据,”《经济学(季刊)》第4期,第1041-1066页。
杨小凯,(2003)《发展经济学:超边际与边际分析》,社会科学文献出版社。
周大启,(2016)“中国企业在非洲投资效益研究,”中国人民大学博士论文。
Borland,J.,and Yang X.K.,(1992)“Specialization and a New Approach to Economic Organization and Growth,”The American Economic Review 82(2),386-391.
C.R.Sun,G.Q.Tian,T.Zhang,(2013)“An Application of the Melitz Model to Chinese Firms,”Review of Development Economics 17(3),494-509.
Dixit.A.K.,and Stiglitz.J.E.,(1977)“Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity,”American Economic Review 67(3),297-308.
Krugman,P.,(1979)“Increasing Returns,Monopolistic Competition,and International Trade,”Journal of International Economics 9(4),469-479.
Krugman,P.R.,(1980)“Scale Economies,Product Differentiation,and the Pattern of Trade,”American Economic Review 70(5),950-959.
Krugman,P R.,(1981)“Intraindustry Specialization and the Gains from Trade,”Journal of Political Economy89(5),959-973.
Melitz,M.J.,(2003)“The Impact of Trade on Intra-industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity,”Econometrica 71(6),1695-1725.
Melitz,M.J.,and Redding,S.,(2015)“New Trade Models,New Welfare Implications,”American Economic Review 105(3),1105-1146.
Xiaokai Yang,Borland J.,(1991)“A Microeconomic Mechanism for Economic Growth,”Journal of Political Economy 99(3),460-482.
Xiokai Yang,Ben J.Heijdra,(1993)“Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity:Comment,”The American Economic Review 83(1),295-301.
(1)以下最大化问题基于分工经济,完全自给自足经济将在第二部分再讨论,公式的具体涵义可见杨小凯(2003)。
(2)这里假定了贸易品与非贸易品对称性,因此具有相同的固定学习费用。
(3)更详细的解释可以参见杨小凯:《发展经济学:超边际与边际分析》,社会科学文献出版社2003年版。
(4)为了简化,我们在一般均衡的分析中,将相对价格p1/pd=1省略了。
(5)一般情况下,1-Am-ρ>0在现实经济中不大可能存在,可获得的消费品总数一般相对较大,而固定学习费用A接近于0的可能性不大,因此我们可以认为dU/dk>0恒成立。
(6)ρ较大,代表产品之间的替代弹性较大,因此当我们假设替代弹性参数ρ相对较大时,图2左半部分的情况不会出现,而且完全竞争市场的假设也表明了产品替代弹性较大,因此图2右半部分更加符合完全竞争市场假设。