基于理想点-可拓云模型的煤炭资源可持续力评价
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摘要
论文针对煤炭资源可持续力评价中多指标信息不相容的问题以及评价等级划分的随机性和模糊性,综合运用可拓云理论与理想点组合赋权法,建立煤炭资源可持续力评价的理想点-可拓云模型。该模型根据可拓云理论构造了物元可拓云模型,通过关联函数确定了各等级云关联度,并与各指标理想点组合权重相结合,从而得到可持续力综合云关联度,确定了煤炭资源可持续力评价等级。将该模型应用于河北省2015年煤炭资源可持续力评价,评价等级特征值为3.069,可知评价等级最接近Ⅲ级,通过云发生器计算各等级概率,结果表明,2015年河北省煤炭资源可持续力处于中等水平,与实地调研结果基本相符。该方法科学合理、结果可靠,为资源可持续力评价提供了一种新的参考方法。
Traditional methods of sustainable capacity evaluation of coal resources cannot take account of the incompatibility of multi-indexes and the randomness and fuzziness of the boundary information of classes. A new evaluation model by integrating the extension cloud theory of the matter-element concept and the combined weight of ideal point method is established. The matter-element extension cloud model is constructed by applying the extension cloud theory. Ideal point method is introduced to integrate the subjective weighting approach and the objective weighting approach so that the combination weight of each index can be obtained. The cloud related degree of each sustainable capacity class of coal resources can be calculated by correlation function, and in turn the comprehensive related degree can be obtained by integrating the combination weight with the related degree, and finally the classification of sustainable capacity can be achieved. The evaluation model is applied to evaluate the sustainable capacity of coal resources in Hebei Province in 2015, and the result is in highly consistent with the spot survey results. The value of evaluation grade is 3.069, which is quite close to level Ⅲ. The probability of each grade is calculated through the cloud generator. The evaluation result shows that the sustainable capacity of coal resources in Hebei Province in 2015 is at medium level. Compared with the existing methods, the evaluation method is reasonable and scientific. This model based on the extension theory and ideal point method provides a new reference for those who evaluate the sustainable capacity of natural resources.
Traditional methods of sustainable capacity evaluation of coal resources cannot take account of the incompatibility of multi-indexes and the randomness and fuzziness of the boundary information of classes. A new evaluation model by integrating the extension cloud theory of the matter-element concept and the combined weight of ideal point method is established. The matter-element extension cloud model is constructed by applying the extension cloud theory. Ideal point method is introduced to integrate the subjective weighting approach and the objective weighting approach so that the combination weight of each index can be obtained. The cloud related degree of each sustainable capacity class of coal resources can be calculated by correlation function, and in turn the comprehensive related degree can be obtained by integrating the combination weight with the related degree, and finally the classification of sustainable capacity can be achieved. The evaluation model is applied to evaluate the sustainable capacity of coal resources in Hebei Province in 2015, and the result is in highly consistent with the spot survey results. The value of evaluation grade is 3.069, which is quite close to level Ⅲ. The probability of each grade is calculated through the cloud generator. The evaluation result shows that the sustainable capacity of coal resources in Hebei Province in 2015 is at medium level. Compared with the existing methods, the evaluation method is reasonable and scientific. This model based on the extension theory and ideal point method provides a new reference for those who evaluate the sustainable capacity of natural resources.
引文
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[18]薛黎明,崔超群,李长明,等.基于正态云模型的区域矿产资源可持续力评价[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(6):67-74.[XUE L M,CUI C Q,LI C M,et al.Normal cloud model-based approach for regional sustainable power assessment of mineral resources.China Population,Resources and Environment,2017,27(6):67-74.]
[19]张金锁,张伟,宋世杰.区域煤炭资源安全绿色高效开采评价指标体系与标准——以陕北侏罗纪煤田为例[J].中国煤炭,2015,41(6):49-54.[ZHANG J S,ZHANG W,SONG S J.Evaluation index system and standards of the safe,green and high-efficient mining of regional coal resources.China Coal,2015,41(6):49-54.]
[20]薛黎明,龚爽,崔超群,等.主客观权重相结合的湖南省矿产资源可持续力综合评价[J].中国矿业,2015,24(9):44-49.[XUE L M,GONG S,CUI C Q,et al.Sustainable power comprehensive evaluation of Hunan mineral resources combining subjective weight with objective weight.China Mining Magazine,2015,24(9):44-49.]
[21]张欣莹,解建仓,刘建林,等.基于熵权法的节水型社会建设区域类型分析[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(2):301-309.[ZHANG X Y,XIE J C,LIU J L,et al.Analysis on the regional type of water-saving society based on entropy weight method.Journal of Natural Resources,2017,32(2):301-309.]
[22]YAN F,XU K L.Application of a cloud model-set pair analysis in hazard assessment for biomass gasification stations[J].PLo S One,2017,12(1):1-17.
[2]高天明,沈镭,刘立涛,等.中国煤炭资源不均衡性及流动轨迹[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(1):92-103.[GAO T M,SHEN L,LIU L T,et al.The inequality of China’s coal resources and its flow paths.Journal of Natural Resources,2013,28(1):92-103.]
[3]余敬.矿产资源可持续力评估[M].武汉:中国地质大学出版社,2004.[YU J.Sustainability Assessment of Mineral Resources.Wuhan:China University of Geosciences Press,2004.]
[4]余敬,高谋艳.矿业城市矿产资源可持续力比较评价[J].地球科学(中国地质大学学报),2007(1):123-129.[YU J,GAO M Y.A Comparative evaluation of degree of sustainable development of mineral resources for a mining city.Earth Science—Journal of China University of Geosciences,2007(1):123-129.]
[5]CHEN W Y,LI H L,WU Z X.Western China energy development and west to east energy transfer:Application of the western China sustainable energy development model[J].Energy Policy,2010,38(11):7106-7120.
[6]刘学,董春游,曹志国,等.基于不确定性理论的煤炭城市可持续发展评价模型[J].中国矿业,2012,21(4):37-40.[LIU X,DONG C Y,CAO Z G,et al.Evaluation model of coal cities’sustainable development based on uncertain theory.China Mining Magazine,2012,21(4):37-40.]
[7]黄寰,尹斯斯,雷佑新.我国矿产资源可持续发展水平分析与预测——基于层次分析法的探索[J].西南民族大学学报(人文社科版),2015,36(7):146-150.[HUANG H,YIN S S,LEI Y X.Analysis and forecast of the sustainable development level of China’s mineral resources—Based on the analytic hierarchy process.Journal of Southwest University for Nationalities(Humanities and Social Sciences),2015,36(7):146-150.]
[8]赵敏,唐嘉耀,王月娥.大冶市旅游转型区域开发研究:基于矿产资源可持续力与旅游资源开发潜力的耦合性[J].中国矿业,2016,25(4):55-60.[ZHAO M,TANG J Y,WANG Y E.Tourism transformation and regional development research of Daye:Based on the coupling between mineral resources sustainable power and the tourism resources potential development power.China Mining Magazine,2016,25(4):55-60.]
[9]梁桂兰,徐卫亚,谈小龙.基于熵权的可拓理论在岩体质量评价中的应用[J].岩土力学,2010,31(2):535-540.[LIANG G L,XU W Y,TAN X L.Application of extension theory based on entropy weight to rock quality evaluation.Rock and Soil Mechanics,2010,31(2):535-540.]
[10]厉莎,张仁贡.基于可拓评价的农村饮用水工程运行管理模式研究[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(6):1059-1069.[LI S,ZHANG R G.A study on the mode of operation and management of rural drinking water projects based on extension evaluation.Journal of Natural Resources,2013,28(6):1059-1069.]
[11]许叶军,达庆利.基于理想点的多属性决策主客观赋权法[J].工业工程与管理,2005(4):45-47.[XU Y J,DA Q L.An objective and subjective synthetic approach to determine weights based on ideal-solution for multi-attribute decision making.Industrial Engineering and Management,2005(4):45-47.]
[12]江强强,方堃,章广成.基于新组合赋权法的地质灾害危险性评价[J].自然灾害学报,2015,24(3):28-36.[JIANG Q Q,FANG K,ZHANG G C.Assessment of geohazards risk based on new combined weight method.Journal of Natural Disasters,2015,24(3):28-36.]
[13]苌云倩.河北省煤炭资源可持续利用研究[D].石家庄:石家庄经济学院,2015.[CHANG Y Q.Research on Sustainable Utilization of Coal Resource in Hebei Province.Shijiazhuang:Shijiazhuang University of Economics,2015.]
[14]AZAPAGIC A.Developing a framework for sustainable development indicators for the mining and minerals industry[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2004,12(3):639-662.
[15]YU J,YAO S Z,CHEN R Q,et al.A quantitative integrated evaluation of sustainable development of mineral resources of a mining city:A case study of Huangshi,eastern China[J].Resources Policy,2005,30(1):7-19.
[16]刘志鹏,韦栋梁,王光洪.北部湾经济区矿产资源可持续力研究[J].中国矿业,2011,20(2):17-21.[LIU Z P,WEI D L,WANG G H.The research on sustainable power of mineral resources in Beibu Gulf Economic Zone,Guangxi.China Mining Magazine,2011,20(2):17-21.]
[17]李玉平,蔡运龙.河北省土地生态安全评价[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2007,43(6):784-789.[LI Y P,CAI Y L.Security evaluation of land ecology in Hebei Province.Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2007,43(6):784-789.]
[18]薛黎明,崔超群,李长明,等.基于正态云模型的区域矿产资源可持续力评价[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(6):67-74.[XUE L M,CUI C Q,LI C M,et al.Normal cloud model-based approach for regional sustainable power assessment of mineral resources.China Population,Resources and Environment,2017,27(6):67-74.]
[19]张金锁,张伟,宋世杰.区域煤炭资源安全绿色高效开采评价指标体系与标准——以陕北侏罗纪煤田为例[J].中国煤炭,2015,41(6):49-54.[ZHANG J S,ZHANG W,SONG S J.Evaluation index system and standards of the safe,green and high-efficient mining of regional coal resources.China Coal,2015,41(6):49-54.]
[20]薛黎明,龚爽,崔超群,等.主客观权重相结合的湖南省矿产资源可持续力综合评价[J].中国矿业,2015,24(9):44-49.[XUE L M,GONG S,CUI C Q,et al.Sustainable power comprehensive evaluation of Hunan mineral resources combining subjective weight with objective weight.China Mining Magazine,2015,24(9):44-49.]
[21]张欣莹,解建仓,刘建林,等.基于熵权法的节水型社会建设区域类型分析[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(2):301-309.[ZHANG X Y,XIE J C,LIU J L,et al.Analysis on the regional type of water-saving society based on entropy weight method.Journal of Natural Resources,2017,32(2):301-309.]
[22]YAN F,XU K L.Application of a cloud model-set pair analysis in hazard assessment for biomass gasification stations[J].PLo S One,2017,12(1):1-17.