改进选择实验法在居民浒苔治理意愿评估中的应用
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摘要
选择实验法是通过问卷调查获取大量个体对资源环境属性状态选择集的偏好信息,评估资源环境非市场价值的前沿方法。受访者面对多种选择集的高信息负荷,由于认知水平受限,经常通过为物品属性设定可接受的最低/最高水平,即属性临界值,以简化决策过程,易造成模型估计结果的偏差。本文针对黄海胶州湾海域浒苔治理支付意愿,考虑属性临界值的存在及违反情况,设计引出属性临界值的选择实验问卷,建立修正选择模型,以青岛市实地调研的397个有效样本为数据来源,对居民浒苔治理意愿进行评估。研究结果表明:(1)属性临界值的存在及违反具有普遍性,忽略其存在及违反情况将导致估计结果的偏差;(2)将属性临界值存在及违反情况纳入效用方程,对传统选择实验分析框架进行修正,结果表明,经修正的选择模型的拟合度更优,能更好地解释受访者选择行为。在参数估计方面,浒苔治理恢复属性对居民效用水平显著正向影响,滨海景观、近海水质属性临界值的违反对居民效用水平显著负向影响;(3)青岛市居民对治理浒苔恢复滨海景观、改善近海水质、增加生物多样性和修复海洋生物资源的年支付意愿分别为90.68元、84.92元、49.34元、43.17元,2017年青岛市胶州湾海域浒苔治理总支付意愿为33.006亿元。与传统模型的对比表明,考虑属性临界值存在及违反情况的选择模型能更有效地反映受访者的实际边际效用,并在此基础上提高支付意愿估计结果的效度。
Choice experiment is an advanced method for evaluating non-market items by acquiring individual's preference information through a series of questionnaires.Faced with a large information load of selection sets,the respondents often use cut-offs to simplify the decision-making process,which may make the traditional model selection generating biased estimates.In order to assess residents’ preference and willingness to pay for the governance of the Enteromorpha prolifera in Qingdao,we designed the choice experiment including attribute cut-offs and incorporate attribute cutoffs into the random parameter logit model.Data for this study were collected from the field research in Qingdao.The results demonstrated that attribute cut-offs and their violation can be universal.The ignorance of this situation will make the estimates biased,which illustrates the essence to introduce cut-offs into the model.Comparisons between models with/without attribute cut-offs suggest that the use of cut-offs will significantly improve the goodness-of-fit of the model and better explain the respondents’selection behavior.Results from estimation of models further indicate that each governance attribute has a positive impact on the level of utility and the attribute cutoffs of marine coastal landscape and coastal water quality have a negative impact on the level of utility.The willingness to pay for strengthen governance of the Enteromorpha prolifera to improve the coastal landscape is 90.68 CNY,the willingness to pay to improve coastal water quality is 84.92 CNY,the willingness to pay to improve marine biological resource is 43.17 CNY,and the willingness to pay to improve biodiversity is 49.34 CNY.The overall ecological damage cost is 3.3 billion CNY per year.Compared to the traditional model,the model with attribute cut-offs will better reflect the actual marginal utility and improve the validity of the estimate of willingness to pay.
Choice experiment is an advanced method for evaluating non-market items by acquiring individual's preference information through a series of questionnaires.Faced with a large information load of selection sets,the respondents often use cut-offs to simplify the decision-making process,which may make the traditional model selection generating biased estimates.In order to assess residents’ preference and willingness to pay for the governance of the Enteromorpha prolifera in Qingdao,we designed the choice experiment including attribute cut-offs and incorporate attribute cutoffs into the random parameter logit model.Data for this study were collected from the field research in Qingdao.The results demonstrated that attribute cut-offs and their violation can be universal.The ignorance of this situation will make the estimates biased,which illustrates the essence to introduce cut-offs into the model.Comparisons between models with/without attribute cut-offs suggest that the use of cut-offs will significantly improve the goodness-of-fit of the model and better explain the respondents’selection behavior.Results from estimation of models further indicate that each governance attribute has a positive impact on the level of utility and the attribute cutoffs of marine coastal landscape and coastal water quality have a negative impact on the level of utility.The willingness to pay for strengthen governance of the Enteromorpha prolifera to improve the coastal landscape is 90.68 CNY,the willingness to pay to improve coastal water quality is 84.92 CNY,the willingness to pay to improve marine biological resource is 43.17 CNY,and the willingness to pay to improve biodiversity is 49.34 CNY.The overall ecological damage cost is 3.3 billion CNY per year.Compared to the traditional model,the model with attribute cut-offs will better reflect the actual marginal utility and improve the validity of the estimate of willingness to pay.
引文
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[29]石春娜,姚顺波,陈晓楠,等.基于选择实验法的城市生态系统服务价值评估-以四川温江为例[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(5):767-778.[Shi C N,Yao S B,Chen X N,et al.Economic valuation of ecosystem services based on choice experiment:a case study of Wenjiang in Sichuan Province[J].Journal of Natural Science,2016,31(5):767-778.]
[30]张晓雯,毛玉泽,庄志猛,等.黄海绿潮浒苔的形态学观察及分子鉴定[J].中国水产科学,2008,15(5):822-829.[Zhang X W,Mao Y Z,Zhuang Z M,et al.Morphological characteristics and molecular phylogenic analysis of green tide Enteromorpha sp.occurred in the Yellow Sea[J].Journal of Fishery Science of China,2008,15(5):822-829.]
[31]王超.浒苔绿潮危害效应与机制的基础研究[D].青岛:中国科学院,2010.[Wang C.Primary Studies on the Harmful Effects and Mechanisms of Ulva Prolifera Green Tide[D].Qingdao:Chinese Academy of Sciences,2010.]
[32]青岛市统计局.青岛统计年鉴2017[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2017.[Qingdao Statistics Bureau.Qingdao Statistical Yearbook[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2017.]
[2]Morrison M,Bennett J,Blamey R.Valuing improved wetland quality using choice modeling[J].Water Resources Research,1999,35(9):2805-2814.
[3]Miller S,Tait P,Saunders C.Estimating indigenous cultural values of freshwater:a choice experiment approach to Māori values in New Zealand[J].Ecological Economics,2015,118:207-214.
[4]Oleson K L L,Barnes M,Brander L M,et al.Cultural bequest values for ecosystem service flows among indigenous fishers:a discrete choice experiment validated with mixed methods[J].Ecological Economics,2015,114:104-116.
[5]Hanley N,Wright R E,Alvarezfarizo B.Estimating the economic value of improvements in river ecology using choice experiments:an application to the water framework directive[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2006,78(2):183-193.
[6]高琴,敖长林,毛碧琦,等.基于计划行为理论的湿地生态系统服务支付意愿及影响因素分析[J].资源科学,2017,39(5):893-901.[Gao Q,AO C L,Mao B Q,et al.Analysis of willingness to pay for ecosystem services and influence factors based on the TPB[J].Resource Science,2017,39(5):893-901.]
[7]Mcfadden D.Conditional Logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior[J].Frontiers in Econometrics,1974:105-142.
[8]Hensher D A.Attribute Processing,Heuristics and Preference Construction in Choice Analysis[C].Harrogate:The First International Conference on Choice Analysis,2009.
[9]刘敏,张庆林.推理的启发式再认新模式[J].心理科学,2004,27(2):493-495.[Liu M,Zhang Q L.A new model of inference:heuristic recognition[J].Psychological Science,2004,27(2):493-495.]
[10]Huber J,Klein N M.Adapting cutoffs to the choice environment:the effects of attribute correlation and reliability[J].Journal of Consumer Research,1991,18(3):346-357.
[11]Payne J W.Task complexity and contingent processing in decision making:an information search and protocol analysis[J].Organizational Behavior&Human Performance,1976,16(2):366-387.
[12]Ford J K,Schmitt N,Schechtman S L,et al.Process tracing methods:contributions,problems,and neglected research questions[J].Organizational Behavior&Human Decision Processes,1989,43(1):75-117.
[13]Dawes R M.Social selection based on multidimensional criteria[J].Journal of Abnormal Psychology,1964,68:104-109.
[14]Tversky A.Elimination by aspects:a theory of choice[J].Psychological Review,1972,79(4):281-299.
[15]Gensch D H,Svestka J A.An exact hierarchical algorithm for determining aggregate statistics from individual choice data[J].Management Science,1979,25(10):939-952.
[16]Krishnan K S.Incorporating thresholds of indifference in probabilistic choice models[J].Management Science,1977,23(11):1224-1233.
[17]Swait J.A non-compensatory choice model incorporating attribute cutoffs[J].Transportation Research Part B Methodological,2001,35(10):903-928.
[18]Ding Y,Veeman M M,Adamowicz W L.The influence of attribute cutoffs on consumers'choices of a functional food[J].European Review of Agricultural Economics,2010,39(5):745-769.
[19]Bush G,Colombo S,Hanley N.Should all choices count?Using the cut-offs approach to edit responses in a choice experiment[J].Environmental&Resource Economics,2009,44(3):397-414.
[20]Danielis R,Marcucci E.Attribute cut-offs in freight service selection[J].Transportation Research Part E,2007,43(5):506-515.
[21]Lancaster K J.A new approach to consumer theory[J].Journal of Political Economy,1966,74(2):132-157.
[22]樊辉,赵敏娟.自然资源非市场价值评估的选择实验法:原理及应用分析[J].资源科学,2013,35(7):1347-1354.[Fan H,Zhao M J.Choice experiments for natural resource non-market evaluation[J].Resource Science,2013,35(7):1347-1354.]
[23]Manski C F.The structure of random utility models[J].Theory&Decision,1977,8(3):229-254.
[24]谭永忠,陈佳,王庆日,等.基于选择试验模型的基本农田非市场价值评估-以浙江省德清县为例[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(11):1981-1994.[Tan Y Z,Chen J,Wang Q R,et al.Estimation of non-market value of prime farmland based on choice experiment model-a case study of Deqing county[J].Journal of Natural Resource,2012,27(11):1981-1994.]
[25]国家海洋局.中国海洋灾害公报[EB/OL].(2017-03-22)[2018-01-11].http://www.soa.gov.cn/zwgk/hygb/zghyzhgb/201703/t20170322_55290.html.[State Oceanic Administration,People’s Republic of China.Bulletin of China Marine Disaster[EB/OL].(2017-03-22)[2018-01-11].http://www.soa.gov.cn/zwgk/hygb/zghyzhgb/201703/t20170322_55290.html.]
[26]刘峰,逄少军.黄海浒苔绿潮及其溯源研究进展[J].海洋科学进展,2012,30(3):441-449.[Liu F,Pang S J.Research advances on green tides in the Yellow Sea[J].Advanced in Marine Science,2012,30(3):441-449.]
[27]齐衍萍,郭莉莉,尹维翰,等.黄海浒苔绿潮防控对策研究[J].海洋开发与管理,2016,33(8):90-92.[Qi Y P,Guo L L,Yin W H,et al.Green tide prevention and control countermeasures in the Yellow Sea[J].Ocean Development and Management,2016,33(8):90-92.]
[28]刘湘庆,王宗灵,辛明,等.浒苔衰亡过程中营养盐的释放过程及规律[J].海洋环境科学,2016,35(6):801-805.[Liu X Q,Wang Z L,Xin M,et al.Study on process of nutrient release during the decay of Ulva Prolifera[J].Marine Environmental Science,2016,35(6):801-805.]
[29]石春娜,姚顺波,陈晓楠,等.基于选择实验法的城市生态系统服务价值评估-以四川温江为例[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(5):767-778.[Shi C N,Yao S B,Chen X N,et al.Economic valuation of ecosystem services based on choice experiment:a case study of Wenjiang in Sichuan Province[J].Journal of Natural Science,2016,31(5):767-778.]
[30]张晓雯,毛玉泽,庄志猛,等.黄海绿潮浒苔的形态学观察及分子鉴定[J].中国水产科学,2008,15(5):822-829.[Zhang X W,Mao Y Z,Zhuang Z M,et al.Morphological characteristics and molecular phylogenic analysis of green tide Enteromorpha sp.occurred in the Yellow Sea[J].Journal of Fishery Science of China,2008,15(5):822-829.]
[31]王超.浒苔绿潮危害效应与机制的基础研究[D].青岛:中国科学院,2010.[Wang C.Primary Studies on the Harmful Effects and Mechanisms of Ulva Prolifera Green Tide[D].Qingdao:Chinese Academy of Sciences,2010.]
[32]青岛市统计局.青岛统计年鉴2017[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2017.[Qingdao Statistics Bureau.Qingdao Statistical Yearbook[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2017.]