长江中下游6—7月降水的降尺度模型
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摘要
基于偏相关的强迫因子选取方法,以长江中下游6—7月降水为例,进行了降水变率的归因分析,并建立了相应的统计降尺度模型。结果表明,影响长江中下游6—7月降水的强迫因子主要有两个:西太平洋850 h Pa的位势高度(W_(PH8))和黑潮延伸区的海表温度(K_(SST))。W_(PH8)反映的是西太平洋副热带高压对长江中下游降水的影响;K_(SST)反映了黑潮延伸区的变率。基于这两个因子的线性降尺度模型能较好地拟合长江中下游6—7月的降水,在独立检验和模式检验阶段,模型体现出了可靠性,因而可用于长江中下游降水的季节预测。
As one of the means for bridging the gap between low resolution data obtained from weather models and those required in the basin scale, statistical downscaling has become an important field of study,due to its relative simplicity and practicability,along with its many flexible methods.More accurate forecast results can be obtained by the statistical downscaling method of establishing the function between the low-resolution raw model output and high-resolution prediction variables.With the partial correlation-based method,f orcing factors are sought for the precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin in June and July,and a statistical downscaling model is established for the precipitation.The major forcing factors for the precipitation over the region include the 850 hPa geopotential height over the western Pacific( WPH8) and the sea surface temperature in the Kuroshio extension( K_(SST)).The W_(PH8) may indicate the influence of the western Pacific subtropical high on the rainfall,while the K_(SST) may reflect the variability of the Kuroshio extension.A regression statistical downscaling model based on W_(PH8) and K_(SST) shows good performance in fitting the variability of early summer rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin,and the model also shows strong robustness in the independent validation.In the future the statistical downscaling model can be used for downscaling output from seasonal forecast numerical,and improving the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin early summer rainfall prediction.
As one of the means for bridging the gap between low resolution data obtained from weather models and those required in the basin scale, statistical downscaling has become an important field of study,due to its relative simplicity and practicability,along with its many flexible methods.More accurate forecast results can be obtained by the statistical downscaling method of establishing the function between the low-resolution raw model output and high-resolution prediction variables.With the partial correlation-based method,f orcing factors are sought for the precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin in June and July,and a statistical downscaling model is established for the precipitation.The major forcing factors for the precipitation over the region include the 850 hPa geopotential height over the western Pacific( WPH8) and the sea surface temperature in the Kuroshio extension( K_(SST)).The W_(PH8) may indicate the influence of the western Pacific subtropical high on the rainfall,while the K_(SST) may reflect the variability of the Kuroshio extension.A regression statistical downscaling model based on W_(PH8) and K_(SST) shows good performance in fitting the variability of early summer rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin,and the model also shows strong robustness in the independent validation.In the future the statistical downscaling model can be used for downscaling output from seasonal forecast numerical,and improving the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin early summer rainfall prediction.
引文
曹经福,江志红,任福民,等,2013 .广义线性统计降尺度方法模拟日降水量的应用研究[J].气象学报,71(1):167-175.Cao J F,Jiang Z H,Ren F M,et al.,2013.An application of the generalized linear statitical downscaling method to simulating daily precipitation[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,71(1):167-175.(in Chinese).
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丁良模,1992 .黑潮关键区的海面放热量对长江地区梅雨降水的影响[J].海洋学报,14(3):47-54.Ding L M,1992.The influence of the heat of the sea off the key area of the Kuroshio in the Yangtza river[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,14(3):47-54.(in Chinese).
高理,刘玉光,荣增瑞,2007.黑潮延伸区的海平面异常和中尺度涡的统计分析[J].海洋湖沼通报(1):14-23.Gao L,Liu Y G,Rong Z R,2007.Sea level anomaly and mesoscale eddies in the Kuroshio extension region[J].Transaction of Oceanology and Limnology(1):14-23.(in Chinese).
管兆勇,蔡佳熙,唐卫亚,等,2010 .长江中下游夏季气温变化型与西太平洋副高活动异常的联系[J].气象科学,30(5):666-675.Guan Z Y,Cai J X,Tang W Y,et al.,2010.Variations of west Pacific subtropical high associated with principal patterns of summertime temperature anomalies in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,30(5):666-675.(in Chinese).
Kwon Y O,Alexander M A,Bond N A,et al.,2010.Role of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio-Oyashio systems in large-scale atmosphere-ocean interaction:A review[J].J Climate,23(12):3249-3281.
李慧,周顺武,王亚非,2013.西太平洋副热带高压异常与中国长江中下游夏季降水关系研究综述[J].气象,29(1):93-102.Li H,Zhou S W,Wang Y F,2013.A review on relationship between subtropical high anomaly over West Pacific and summer precipitation in the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River[J].Meteor Mon,29(1):93-102.(in Chinese).
李江南,蒙伟光,王安宇,等,2003 .西太平洋副热带高压强度和位置的气候特征[J].热带地理,23 (1):35-39.Li J N,Meng W G,Wang A Y,et al.,2003.Climatic characteristics of the intesity and position of the subtropical high in the western Pacific[J].Tropical Geography,23(1):35-39.(in Chinese)
李维京,丑纪范,1990 .北半球月平均环流与长江中下游降水的关系[J].气象科学,10 (2):139-146.Li W J,Chou J F,1990.The relationship between the average circulation of the northern hemisphere and the precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze river[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,10(2):139-146.(in Chinese)
林建,何金海,2000.海温分布型对长江中下游旱涝的影响[J].应用气象学报,11(3):339-347.Lin J,He J H,2000.Influence of SST pattern on the rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorologica Science,11(3):339-347.(in Chinese)
刘舸,张庆云,孙淑清,2008.澳大利亚东侧环流及海温异常与长江中下游夏季旱涝的关系[J].大气科学,32(2):231-241.Liu K,Zhang Q Y,Sun S Q,2008.The relationship between circulation and SST anomaly east of Australia and the summer rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,32(2):231-241.(in Chinese).
吕海,龚振彬,倪雷,2007.统计降尺度法在我国未来区域气温变化预测中的应用研究[J].现代商贸工业,19 (6)190-192.Lyu H,Gong Z B,Yi L,2007.The application of statistical reduction method in the forecast of regional temperature change[J].Modern Business Trade Industry,19(6):190 -192.(in Chinese).
马静,徐海明,2012.春季黑潮延伸体海洋锋区经向位移与东亚大气环流的关系[J].气象科学,32(4):375-384.Ma J,Xu H M,2012.The relationship between meridional displacement of the oceanic front in Kuroshio extension during spring and atmospheric circulation in East Asia[J].J Meteor Sci,32(4):375-384.(in Chinese)
梅伟,杨修群,2005.我国长江中下游地区降水变化趋势分析[J].南京大学学报(自然科学版),41 (6):577-589.Mei W,Yang X Q,2005.Trends of precipitation variations in the mid-lower Yangtze River Valley of China[J].Journal of Nanjing University(Natural Sciences),41(6):577-589.(in Chinese).
Qiu B,2000.Interannual variability of the Kuroshio Extension system and its impact on the wintertime SST field[J].Journal of Physical Oceanography,30(6):1486-1502.
Qiu B,2002.The Kuroshio Extension system:Its large-scale variability and role in the midlatitude ocean-atmosphere interaction[J].Journal of Oceanography,58(1):57-75.
Qiu B,Chen S,2005.Variability of the Kuroshio Extension jet,recirculation gyre,and mesoscale eddies on decadal time scales[J].Journal of Physical Oceanography,35(11):2090-2103.
阮成卿,李建平,冯娟,2015.中国西南地区后冬降水的统计降尺度模型[J].中国科学:地球科学,45(7):1020-1033.Ruan C Q,Li J P,Feng J,2015.Statistical downscaling model for late-winter rainfall over Southwest China[J].Science China:Earth Sciences,45(7):1020-1033.(in Chinese).
宋永康,舒晓,王兵杰,2013 .基于交叉检验法的地质预测模型优选[J].石油化工应用,32 (12):65-69;88.Song Y K,Shu X,Wang B J,2013.Selection and assessment of geological prediction models based on cross validation[J].Petrochemical Industry Application,32(12):65-69;88.(in Chinese).
陶诗言,1963 .中国夏季副热带天气系统若干问题的研究[M].北京:科学出版社.Tao S Y,1963.Research on several problems of Chinese summer subtropical weather system[M].Beijing:Science Press.(in Chinese).
王叶红,王谦谦,赵玉春,1999 .长江中下游降水异常特征及其与全国降水和气温异常的关系[J].南京气象学院学报,22(4):685-691.Wang Y H,Wang Q Q,Zhao Y C,1999.Characteristics of precipitation anomaly over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River related to precipitation and temperature anomalies of China[J].J Nanjing Inst Meteor,22(4):685-691.(in Chinese)
吴国雄,丑纪范,刘屹岷,等,2003 .副热带高压研究进展及展望[J].大气科学,27(4):503-517.Wu G X,Chou J F,Liu Y M,et al.,2003.Review and prospect of the study on the subtropical anticyclone[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,27(4):503-517.(in Chinese).
尹志聪,王亚非,袁东敏,2011 .梅雨准双周振荡的年际变化及其前期强信号分析[J].大气科学学报,34 (3):297-304.Yin Z C,Wang Y F,Yuan D M,2001.Analysis of the interannual variability of the Meiyu quasi-biweekly oscillation and its previous strong influence signal[J].Trans Atmos Sci,34(3):297-304.(in Chinese).
张琼,刘平,吴国雄,2003.印度洋和南海海温与长江中下游旱涝[J].大气科学,27(6):992-1006.Zhang Q,Liu P,Wu G X,2003.The relationship between the flood and drought over the lower reach of the Yangtze River valley and the SST over the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,27(6):992-1006.(in Chinese).
陈华,郭靖,郭生练,等,2008.应用统计学降尺度方法预测汉江流域降水变化[J].人民长江,39 (14):53-55.Chen H,Guo J,Guo S L,et al.,Application of statistical downscaling method in precipitation prediction for the Hanjiang River Basin[J].Yangtze River,39(14):5355.(in Chinese).
丁良模,1992 .黑潮关键区的海面放热量对长江地区梅雨降水的影响[J].海洋学报,14(3):47-54.Ding L M,1992.The influence of the heat of the sea off the key area of the Kuroshio in the Yangtza river[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,14(3):47-54.(in Chinese).
高理,刘玉光,荣增瑞,2007.黑潮延伸区的海平面异常和中尺度涡的统计分析[J].海洋湖沼通报(1):14-23.Gao L,Liu Y G,Rong Z R,2007.Sea level anomaly and mesoscale eddies in the Kuroshio extension region[J].Transaction of Oceanology and Limnology(1):14-23.(in Chinese).
管兆勇,蔡佳熙,唐卫亚,等,2010 .长江中下游夏季气温变化型与西太平洋副高活动异常的联系[J].气象科学,30(5):666-675.Guan Z Y,Cai J X,Tang W Y,et al.,2010.Variations of west Pacific subtropical high associated with principal patterns of summertime temperature anomalies in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,30(5):666-675.(in Chinese).
Kwon Y O,Alexander M A,Bond N A,et al.,2010.Role of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio-Oyashio systems in large-scale atmosphere-ocean interaction:A review[J].J Climate,23(12):3249-3281.
李慧,周顺武,王亚非,2013.西太平洋副热带高压异常与中国长江中下游夏季降水关系研究综述[J].气象,29(1):93-102.Li H,Zhou S W,Wang Y F,2013.A review on relationship between subtropical high anomaly over West Pacific and summer precipitation in the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River[J].Meteor Mon,29(1):93-102.(in Chinese).
李江南,蒙伟光,王安宇,等,2003 .西太平洋副热带高压强度和位置的气候特征[J].热带地理,23 (1):35-39.Li J N,Meng W G,Wang A Y,et al.,2003.Climatic characteristics of the intesity and position of the subtropical high in the western Pacific[J].Tropical Geography,23(1):35-39.(in Chinese)
李维京,丑纪范,1990 .北半球月平均环流与长江中下游降水的关系[J].气象科学,10 (2):139-146.Li W J,Chou J F,1990.The relationship between the average circulation of the northern hemisphere and the precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze river[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,10(2):139-146.(in Chinese)
林建,何金海,2000.海温分布型对长江中下游旱涝的影响[J].应用气象学报,11(3):339-347.Lin J,He J H,2000.Influence of SST pattern on the rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorologica Science,11(3):339-347.(in Chinese)
刘舸,张庆云,孙淑清,2008.澳大利亚东侧环流及海温异常与长江中下游夏季旱涝的关系[J].大气科学,32(2):231-241.Liu K,Zhang Q Y,Sun S Q,2008.The relationship between circulation and SST anomaly east of Australia and the summer rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,32(2):231-241.(in Chinese).
吕海,龚振彬,倪雷,2007.统计降尺度法在我国未来区域气温变化预测中的应用研究[J].现代商贸工业,19 (6)190-192.Lyu H,Gong Z B,Yi L,2007.The application of statistical reduction method in the forecast of regional temperature change[J].Modern Business Trade Industry,19(6):190 -192.(in Chinese).
马静,徐海明,2012.春季黑潮延伸体海洋锋区经向位移与东亚大气环流的关系[J].气象科学,32(4):375-384.Ma J,Xu H M,2012.The relationship between meridional displacement of the oceanic front in Kuroshio extension during spring and atmospheric circulation in East Asia[J].J Meteor Sci,32(4):375-384.(in Chinese)
梅伟,杨修群,2005.我国长江中下游地区降水变化趋势分析[J].南京大学学报(自然科学版),41 (6):577-589.Mei W,Yang X Q,2005.Trends of precipitation variations in the mid-lower Yangtze River Valley of China[J].Journal of Nanjing University(Natural Sciences),41(6):577-589.(in Chinese).
Qiu B,2000.Interannual variability of the Kuroshio Extension system and its impact on the wintertime SST field[J].Journal of Physical Oceanography,30(6):1486-1502.
Qiu B,2002.The Kuroshio Extension system:Its large-scale variability and role in the midlatitude ocean-atmosphere interaction[J].Journal of Oceanography,58(1):57-75.
Qiu B,Chen S,2005.Variability of the Kuroshio Extension jet,recirculation gyre,and mesoscale eddies on decadal time scales[J].Journal of Physical Oceanography,35(11):2090-2103.
阮成卿,李建平,冯娟,2015.中国西南地区后冬降水的统计降尺度模型[J].中国科学:地球科学,45(7):1020-1033.Ruan C Q,Li J P,Feng J,2015.Statistical downscaling model for late-winter rainfall over Southwest China[J].Science China:Earth Sciences,45(7):1020-1033.(in Chinese).
宋永康,舒晓,王兵杰,2013 .基于交叉检验法的地质预测模型优选[J].石油化工应用,32 (12):65-69;88.Song Y K,Shu X,Wang B J,2013.Selection and assessment of geological prediction models based on cross validation[J].Petrochemical Industry Application,32(12):65-69;88.(in Chinese).
陶诗言,1963 .中国夏季副热带天气系统若干问题的研究[M].北京:科学出版社.Tao S Y,1963.Research on several problems of Chinese summer subtropical weather system[M].Beijing:Science Press.(in Chinese).
王叶红,王谦谦,赵玉春,1999 .长江中下游降水异常特征及其与全国降水和气温异常的关系[J].南京气象学院学报,22(4):685-691.Wang Y H,Wang Q Q,Zhao Y C,1999.Characteristics of precipitation anomaly over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River related to precipitation and temperature anomalies of China[J].J Nanjing Inst Meteor,22(4):685-691.(in Chinese)
吴国雄,丑纪范,刘屹岷,等,2003 .副热带高压研究进展及展望[J].大气科学,27(4):503-517.Wu G X,Chou J F,Liu Y M,et al.,2003.Review and prospect of the study on the subtropical anticyclone[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,27(4):503-517.(in Chinese).
尹志聪,王亚非,袁东敏,2011 .梅雨准双周振荡的年际变化及其前期强信号分析[J].大气科学学报,34 (3):297-304.Yin Z C,Wang Y F,Yuan D M,2001.Analysis of the interannual variability of the Meiyu quasi-biweekly oscillation and its previous strong influence signal[J].Trans Atmos Sci,34(3):297-304.(in Chinese).
张琼,刘平,吴国雄,2003.印度洋和南海海温与长江中下游旱涝[J].大气科学,27(6):992-1006.Zhang Q,Liu P,Wu G X,2003.The relationship between the flood and drought over the lower reach of the Yangtze River valley and the SST over the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,27(6):992-1006.(in Chinese).