电动两轮车风险驾驶行为及事故影响因素分析
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摘要
为探究电动两轮车风险驾驶行为产生的原因及其影响因素,通过问卷调查方式对183位电动两轮车骑行者进行问卷调查,经过探索性因素分析(EFA)得到了包括风险驾驶行为、情绪状态、利他主义、风险感知能力、驾驶自信和冒险意识的6因子结构模型。研究了统计学信息、6因子与交通事故之间的相互关系,构建了基于Logistic回归的交通事故预测模型,利用验证性因素分析(CFA)对该模型进行了验证。研究表明:日均里程、风险驾驶行为、工作时长、冒险意识是影响交通事故的重要参数。
In order to explore the causes and influencing factors of risky driving behavior of electric twowheeled vehicles,a questionnaire survey was conducted among 183 electric two-wheeled cyclists. After exploratory factor analysis(EFA),a 6-factor structural model was established. These factors include risk driving behavior,emotion State,altruism,risk perception,driving self-confidence and risk awareness.The relationship between statistical information,the 6 factors and traffic accidents were studied to establish a traffic accident prediction model based on Logistic regression. This model was validated by the Factor Analysis(CFA). Research shows that daily mileage,risk driving behavior,working hours,risk awareness are important parameters affecting traffic accidents.
In order to explore the causes and influencing factors of risky driving behavior of electric twowheeled vehicles,a questionnaire survey was conducted among 183 electric two-wheeled cyclists. After exploratory factor analysis(EFA),a 6-factor structural model was established. These factors include risk driving behavior,emotion State,altruism,risk perception,driving self-confidence and risk awareness.The relationship between statistical information,the 6 factors and traffic accidents were studied to establish a traffic accident prediction model based on Logistic regression. This model was validated by the Factor Analysis(CFA). Research shows that daily mileage,risk driving behavior,working hours,risk awareness are important parameters affecting traffic accidents.
引文
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[3]高继东,曾必强,彭伟.电动自行车与轿车碰撞中骑车人的伤害特征[J].吉林大学学报:工学版,2016,46(6):17861791.Gao Jidong,Zeng Biqiang,Peng Wei.Cyclist injury in collision between car and electric bicycle[J].Journal of Jilin University(Engineering and Technology Edition),2016,46(6):17861791.
[4]刘东,韩凤春,陈永胜.灯控路口非机动车交通流运行特性研究[J].中国人民公安大学学报:自然科学版2004,10(2):8992.Liu Dong,Han Fengchun,Chen Yongsheng.Study on traffic flow characteristics of nonmotorized vehicle at light control intersection[J].Journal of Chinese People's Public Security University(Science and Technology),2004,10(2):8992.
[5]Xu J,Chen L,Wang D,et al.The backbone transportation network optimization problem of air express based on scale economies[J].Advances in Transportation Studies,2016,3:6174.
[6]Walton D,Buchanan J.Motorcycle and scooter speeds approaching urban intersections[J].Accident Analysis and Prevention,2012,48:335340.
[7]北京青年报.去年北京电动二轮车共发生交通事故31404起[EB/OL].[20160405].http:∥news.sohu.com/20160405/n443301797.shtml.
[8]重庆日报.重庆电动两轮车使用管理的调查该当如何管住?[EB/OL].[20170630].http:∥cq.qq.com/a/20170630/015918.htm.
[9]Reason J,Manstead A,Stranling S,et al.Errors and violations on the roads:a real distinction?[J].Ergonomics,1990,33(10/11):13151332.
[10]Aberg L,Rimmo P A.Dimensions of aberrant driver behavior[J].Ergonomics,1998,41(1):3956.
[11]Xie Chengqiu,Parker D.A social psychological approach to driving violations in two Chinese cities[J].Transportation Research Part F:Psychology and Behaviour,2002,5(4):293308.
[12]白云,石京.北京市驾驶行为与影响因素分析[J].交通信息与安全,2010,28(2):114119.Bai Yun,Shi Jing.Driving behavior and influential factors study in Beijing[J].Journal of Transportation Information and Safety,2010,28(2):114119.
[13]刘霞.驾驶人驾龄与交通事故相关性研究[D].西安:长安大学汽车学院,2016.Liu Xia.Study on correlation between driving experience and traffic accidents[D].Xi'an:School of Automobile,Chang'an University,2016.
[14]Tseng C M.Socialdemographics,driving experience and yearly driving distance in relation to a tour bus driver's atfault accident risk[J].Tourism Management,2012,33(4):910915.
[15]Noh K H,Rah C K,Yoon Y S,et al.Experimental approach to developing human driver models considering driver's human factors[J].International Journal of Automotive Technology,2014,15(4):655666.
[16]Li Xiaoping,Xie Lijuan,Xu Lan.Research on classification and restruction of express service quality elements based on Kano model[C]∥The 13th International Conference on Service Systems and Service Management(ICSSSM),Kunming,China,2016:16.
[17]Alam Muhammad,Ferreira Joaquim,Fonseca José.Intelligent Transportation Systems:Dependable Vehicular Communications for Improved Road Safety[M].Berlin:Springer,2016.