基于熵权TOPSIS模型的青岛市海洋资源环境承载力评价研究
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摘要
为深度了解和把握海洋资源环境承载力水平与演变趋势,从海洋经济发展、海洋资源承载和海洋环境承载3个系统选取28个指标构建海洋资源环境承载力评价体系,运用熵权TOPSIS模型对青岛市2004年~2015年海洋资源环境承载力及内部承载力水平进行评价。实证结果表明:2004年~2007年青岛市海洋资源环境承载力水平呈现下降趋势,2008年~2011年上升趋势明显,2012年又呈现下滑趋势,海洋资源环境承载力仍面临较大的威胁,承载力水平总体评价指数不高。其中,海洋经济发展水平呈稳步上升趋势;海洋资源承载波动起伏,2004年达到最大值0.3251;海洋环境承载水平整体呈波动上升趋势,且与青岛市海洋资源环境承载力变化趋势基本吻合。
For deeply understand and grasp the ocean resource environmental bearing capacity level and evolution trend,28 indicators were chosen to build the carrying capacity evaluation system from three carrying subsystems,marine economy,marine resources and marine environment. Based on entropy-weight TOPSIS model,the carrying capacity of Qingdao city from 2004 to 2015 and the inner carrying of three subsystems were evaluated. The empirical results show that,the marine resource environmental bearing capacity level in Qingdao city had declined slightly in 2004 ~2007,the carrying was steady promoting from 2008 to 2011,and 2012 showed a trend of decline,the marine resources and environment carrying capacity is facing greater threats,level of bearing capacity of the overall evaluation index is not high. Among them,the developing capacity of marine economic subsystem had obviously improved every year; marine resources presents volatile ups and downs,and reached the maximum of 0. 3251 in 2004; the marine environment load fluctuations had been rising on the whole,and the developing capacity trends of marine resources was basically the same as the carrying capacity trend of whole marine resource and environment in Qingdao city.
For deeply understand and grasp the ocean resource environmental bearing capacity level and evolution trend,28 indicators were chosen to build the carrying capacity evaluation system from three carrying subsystems,marine economy,marine resources and marine environment. Based on entropy-weight TOPSIS model,the carrying capacity of Qingdao city from 2004 to 2015 and the inner carrying of three subsystems were evaluated. The empirical results show that,the marine resource environmental bearing capacity level in Qingdao city had declined slightly in 2004 ~2007,the carrying was steady promoting from 2008 to 2011,and 2012 showed a trend of decline,the marine resources and environment carrying capacity is facing greater threats,level of bearing capacity of the overall evaluation index is not high. Among them,the developing capacity of marine economic subsystem had obviously improved every year; marine resources presents volatile ups and downs,and reached the maximum of 0. 3251 in 2004; the marine environment load fluctuations had been rising on the whole,and the developing capacity trends of marine resources was basically the same as the carrying capacity trend of whole marine resource and environment in Qingdao city.
引文
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[18]苏子龙,袁国华,郝庆,等.基于熵权法的海洋生态环境承载力评价——以广西近岸海域为例[J].中国国土资源经济,2018,31(2):13-18.
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[20]邓宗成,孙英兰,周皓,等.沿海地区海洋生态环境承载力定量化研究——以青岛市为例[J].海洋环境科学,2009,28(4):438-441,459.
[2]LIU T K,WENG T H,SHEU H Y.Exploring the environmental impact assessment commissioners’perspectives on the development of the seawater desalination project[J].Desalination,2018,428:108-115.
[3]COSTANZA R,FARLEY J.Ecological economics of coastal disasters:introduction to the special issue[J].Ecological Economics,2007,63(2/3):249-253.
[4]BORJA A,ELLIOTT M.Marine monitoring during an economic crisis:the cure is worse than the disease[J].Marine Pollution Bulletin,2013,68(1/2):1-3.
[5]JONES M C,CHEUNG W W L.Using fuzzy logic to determine the vulnerability of marine species to climate change[J].Global Change Biology,2018,24(2):e719-e731.
[6]杨金森.海洋生态经济系统的危机分析[J].海洋开发与管理,1999,16(4):73-78.
[7]殷克东,李兴东.中国沿海地区海洋经济发展水平测度研究[J].经济管理,2010,32(12):1-6.
[8]于谨凯,刘世青.基于综合多样性指数的生物多样性安全评估及预警机制分析——以黄海近海海域为例[J].中国渔业经济,2013,31(4):153-160.
[9]付秀梅,姜琴,王东亚,等.青岛海域海洋生物多样性现状与安全度评估研究[J].海洋环境科学,2018,37(1):21-27.
[10]孙欢,张秋丰,屠建波,等.渤海湾天津近岸海域化学需氧量的分布特征、影响因素及与富营养化的关系[J].海洋环境科学,2017,36(3):343-348,371.
[11]孙才志,李欣.环渤海地区海洋资源、环境阻尼效应测度及空间差异[J].经济地理,2013,33(12):169-176.
[12]褚晓琳.论海洋生物资源养护中的预警原则[D].厦门:厦门大学,2008.
[13]宋立松,郑毅,程海洋,等.基于时空同步监视的三维海洋灾害预警辅助分析系统[J].海洋环境科学,2015,34(5):763-768.
[14]PARK R E,BURGESS E W.Introduction to the science of sociology[M].Chicago:University of Chicago Press,1921.
[15]STOJANOVIC T A,FARMER C J Q.The development of world oceans&coasts and concepts of sustainability[J].Marine Policy,2013,42:157-165.
[16]UNESCO FAO.Carrying capacity assessment with a pilot study of Kenya:a resource accounting methodology for exploring national options for sustainable development[M].Paris and Rome:UNESCO&FAO,1985.
[17]李东坡,孙文生.各地区农村建设全面小康社会的TOPSIS分析[J].数理统计与管理,2006,25(4):414-418.
[18]苏子龙,袁国华,郝庆,等.基于熵权法的海洋生态环境承载力评价——以广西近岸海域为例[J].中国国土资源经济,2018,31(2):13-18.
[19]汪海欧,於琍,吕明辉,等.胶州湾地区居民对气候变化的感知与适应研究[J].资源科学,2017,39(1):157-167.
[20]邓宗成,孙英兰,周皓,等.沿海地区海洋生态环境承载力定量化研究——以青岛市为例[J].海洋环境科学,2009,28(4):438-441,459.