山火灾害引发的输电线路跳闸风险实时分析方法及应用
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摘要
近年来,山火灾害已成为输电线路跳闸停运的重要原因之一。现有的山火监测方法无法广域实时监测火点和获取线路所处微地形区域的小尺度气象数据,从而难以准确实时地分析山火条件下线路跳闸风险。据此,该文提出一种考虑山火灾害的输电线路跳闸风险实时分析方法。首先,基于同步卫星技术实现了输电线路附近山火的实时监测,其次,提出了多重嵌套的中小尺度气象预报模式以解决气象数值预测精确度与时效性的矛盾,再次,提出了综合考虑降水、植被、风场等各种环境因素的线路跳闸概率实时计算模型,最后,以湖南省历史山火高发期的案例验证了模型的准确性,结果表明,该方法能够实时、准确地分析输电线路山火跳闸风险,为大范围山火灾害下电网的安全运行和应急处置提供重要的数据支撑。
Recently, wildfires have become a key menace to the safe operation of electrical transmission systems(ETS). The existing fire monitoring methods are unable to obtain wide-area fire points and micro-scale meteorology data of the micro-topography area near the transmission lines in real-time, thus cannot accurately calculate the trip risk of transmission lines due to wildfires in real-time. A real-time analysis approach for transmission-line trip risk considering wildfire disaster was proposed. First of all, a dynamic threshold fire-point identify method for small size wildfires based on synchronous satellite was presented, and then a meso-micro scale weather forecast method of multi-nested mesh model was put forward to solve the conflicts between numerical accuracy and tide timeliness, also, a real-time transmission-line trip risk analysis approach which considers various environmental factors such as precipitation, vegetation and wind was proposed. Finally, the approach was applied to a high incidence period of wildfires in Hunan province as a case study, the analysis results show that the proposed approach can effectively analyze the trip risk of transmission-lines due to wildfires in real-time, andalso provide supportive data to the safe operation of power grids under circumstance of large scale wildfires.
Recently, wildfires have become a key menace to the safe operation of electrical transmission systems(ETS). The existing fire monitoring methods are unable to obtain wide-area fire points and micro-scale meteorology data of the micro-topography area near the transmission lines in real-time, thus cannot accurately calculate the trip risk of transmission lines due to wildfires in real-time. A real-time analysis approach for transmission-line trip risk considering wildfire disaster was proposed. First of all, a dynamic threshold fire-point identify method for small size wildfires based on synchronous satellite was presented, and then a meso-micro scale weather forecast method of multi-nested mesh model was put forward to solve the conflicts between numerical accuracy and tide timeliness, also, a real-time transmission-line trip risk analysis approach which considers various environmental factors such as precipitation, vegetation and wind was proposed. Finally, the approach was applied to a high incidence period of wildfires in Hunan province as a case study, the analysis results show that the proposed approach can effectively analyze the trip risk of transmission-lines due to wildfires in real-time, andalso provide supportive data to the safe operation of power grids under circumstance of large scale wildfires.
引文
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[14]吴田,阮江军,胡毅,等.500k V输电线路的山火击穿特性及机制研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2011,31(34):163-170.Wu Tian,Ruan Jiangjun,Hu Yi,et al.Study on forest fire induced breakdown of 500k V transmission line in terms of characteristics and mechanism[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2011,31(34):163-170(in Chinese).
[15]普子恒,阮江军,黄道春,等.火焰条件下间隙的直流电压击穿特性研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2014,34(3):453-459.Pu Ziheng,Ruan Jiangjun,Huang Daochun,et al.Study on DC voltage breakdown characteristics of gap under fire conditions[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2014,34(3):453-459(in Chinese).
[16]刘式适,刘式达.大气动力学[M].2版.北京:北京大学出版社,2011.Liu Shishi,Liu Shida.Atmospheric dynamics[M].2nd ed.Beijing:Peking University Press,2011(in Chinese).
[17]Chen Siyu,Huang Jianping,Zhao Chun,et al.Modeling the transport and radiative forcing of Taklimakan dust over the Tibetan Plateau:a case study in the summer of2006[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2013,118(2):797-812.
[18]Hong S Y,Dudhia J,Chen S H.A revised approach to ice microphysical processes for the bulk parameterization of clouds and precipitation[J].Monthly Weather Review,2004,132(1):103-120.
[19]Hong S Y,Noh Y,Dudhia J.A new vertical diffusion package with an explicit treatment of entrainment processes[J].Monthly Weather Review,2006,134(9):2318-2341.
[20]Mlawer E J,Taubman S J,Brown P D,et al.Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmosphere:RRTM,a validated correlated-k model for the long-wave[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1997,102(D14):16663-16682.
[21]Chou M D,Suarez M J.An efficient thermal infrared radiation parameterization for use in general circulation models[R].Greenbelt:NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center,1994.
[22]Anderson D H,Catchpole E A,Mestre N J D,et al.Modeling the spread of grass fires[J].ANZIAMJournal,1982,23(4):451-466.
[23]王海晖,朱霁平,姜伟,等.森林地表火行为估算的数学模型[J].火灾科学,1994,3(1):33-41.Wang Haihui,Zhu Jiping,Jiang Wei,et al.A mathematical model for estimating surface fire behavior[J].Fire Safety Science,1994,3(1):33-41(in Chinese).
[24]杨广斌.动态数据驱动的林火蔓延模拟系统关键技术研究[D].北京:中国林业科学研究院,2008.Yang Guangbin.Study on the key techniques of dynamic data driven forest fire spreading system[D].Beijing:Chinese Academy of Forestry,2008(in Chinese).
[25]Guenneau S,Puvirajesinghe T M.Fick's second law transformed:one path to cloaking in mass diffusion[J].Journal of the Royal Society Interface,2013,10(83):20130106.
[26]张新民.空气污染学[M].天津:天津大学出版社,2006.Zhang Xinmin.Air pollution[M].Tianjin:Tianjin University Press,2006(in Chinese).
[2]江全元,晏鸣宇.基于概率统计的输电线路山火监测方法[J].高电压技术,2015,41(7):2302-2307.Jiang Quanyuan,Yan Mingyu.Improved method for forest fire spot detection near transmission line based on probability statistic[J].High Voltage Engineering,2015,41(7):2302-2307(in Chinese).
[3]Wang S D,Miao L L,Peng G X.An improved algorithm for forest fire detection using HJ data[J].Procedia Environmental Sciences,2012,13:140-150.
[4]陆佳政,刘毓,吴传平,等.输电线路山火卫星监测与告警算法研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(21):5511-5519.Lu Jiazheng,Liu Yu,Wu Chuanping,et al.Study on satellite monitoring and alarm calculation algorithm of wild fire near transmission lines[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2015,35(21):5511-5519(in Chinese).
[5]Rothermel R C.A mathematical model for predicting fire spread in wildland fuels[R].Ogden:Intermountain Forest and Range Experimental Station,1972.
[6]王正非.通用森林火险级系统[J].自然灾害学报,1992,1(3):39-44.Wang Zhengfei.Current forest fire danger rating system[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,1992,1(3):39-44(in Chinese).
[7]宋嘉婧,郭创新,张金江,等.山火条件下的架空输电线路停运概率模型[J].电网技术,2013,37(1):100-105.Song Jiajing,Guo Chuangxin,Zhang Jinjiang,et al.Aprobabilistic model of overhead transmission line outage due to forest fire[J].Power System Technology,2013,37(1):100-105(in Chinese).
[8]李媛媛,翁文国,袁宏永.基于GIS的林火蔓延模拟[J].清华大学学报:自然科学版,2012,52(12):1726-1730.Li Yuanyuan,Weng Wenguo,Yuan Hongyong.GIS-based forest fire spread simulation[J].Journal of Tsinghua University:Science&Technology,2012,52(12):1726-1730(in Chinese).
[9]胡毅,刘凯,吴田,等.输电线路运行安全影响因素分析及防治措施[J].高电压技术,2014,40(11):3491-3499.Hu Yi,Liu Kai,Wu Tian,et al.Analysis of influential factors on operation safety of transmission line and countermeasures[J].High Voltage Engineering,2014,40(11):3491-3499(in Chinese).
[10]黎鹏,阮江军,黄道春,等.典型植被火焰下导线-板间隙击穿特性及放电模型研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2016,36(14):4001-4010.Li Peng,Ruan Jiangjun,Huang Daochun,et al.Study on breakdown characteristic and discharge model of conductor-plane gap under typical vegetation flame[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2016,36(14):4001-4010(in Chinese).
[11]普子恒,阮江军,吴田,等.火焰中颗粒对间隙放电特性的影响[J].高电压技术,2014,40(1):103-110.Pu Ziheng,Ruan Jiangjun,Wu Tian,et al.Influence of particles in flame on the characteristics of gap discharge[J].High Voltage Engineering,2014,40(1):103-110(in Chinese).
[12]尤飞,陈海翔,张林鹤,等.木垛火导致高压输电线路跳闸的模拟实验研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2011,31(34):192-197.You Fei,Chen Haixiang,Zhang Linhe,et al.Experimental study on flashover of high-voltage transmission lines induced by wood crib fire[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2011,31(34):192-197(in Chinese).
[13]吴田,胡毅,阮江军,等.交流输电线路模型在山火条件下的击穿机理[J].高电压技术,2011,37(5):1115-1122.Wu Tian,Hu Yi,Ruan Jiangjun,et al.Air gap breakdown mechanism of model AC transmission line under forest fires[J].High Voltage Engineering,2011,37(5):1115-1122(in Chinese).
[14]吴田,阮江军,胡毅,等.500k V输电线路的山火击穿特性及机制研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2011,31(34):163-170.Wu Tian,Ruan Jiangjun,Hu Yi,et al.Study on forest fire induced breakdown of 500k V transmission line in terms of characteristics and mechanism[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2011,31(34):163-170(in Chinese).
[15]普子恒,阮江军,黄道春,等.火焰条件下间隙的直流电压击穿特性研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2014,34(3):453-459.Pu Ziheng,Ruan Jiangjun,Huang Daochun,et al.Study on DC voltage breakdown characteristics of gap under fire conditions[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2014,34(3):453-459(in Chinese).
[16]刘式适,刘式达.大气动力学[M].2版.北京:北京大学出版社,2011.Liu Shishi,Liu Shida.Atmospheric dynamics[M].2nd ed.Beijing:Peking University Press,2011(in Chinese).
[17]Chen Siyu,Huang Jianping,Zhao Chun,et al.Modeling the transport and radiative forcing of Taklimakan dust over the Tibetan Plateau:a case study in the summer of2006[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2013,118(2):797-812.
[18]Hong S Y,Dudhia J,Chen S H.A revised approach to ice microphysical processes for the bulk parameterization of clouds and precipitation[J].Monthly Weather Review,2004,132(1):103-120.
[19]Hong S Y,Noh Y,Dudhia J.A new vertical diffusion package with an explicit treatment of entrainment processes[J].Monthly Weather Review,2006,134(9):2318-2341.
[20]Mlawer E J,Taubman S J,Brown P D,et al.Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmosphere:RRTM,a validated correlated-k model for the long-wave[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1997,102(D14):16663-16682.
[21]Chou M D,Suarez M J.An efficient thermal infrared radiation parameterization for use in general circulation models[R].Greenbelt:NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center,1994.
[22]Anderson D H,Catchpole E A,Mestre N J D,et al.Modeling the spread of grass fires[J].ANZIAMJournal,1982,23(4):451-466.
[23]王海晖,朱霁平,姜伟,等.森林地表火行为估算的数学模型[J].火灾科学,1994,3(1):33-41.Wang Haihui,Zhu Jiping,Jiang Wei,et al.A mathematical model for estimating surface fire behavior[J].Fire Safety Science,1994,3(1):33-41(in Chinese).
[24]杨广斌.动态数据驱动的林火蔓延模拟系统关键技术研究[D].北京:中国林业科学研究院,2008.Yang Guangbin.Study on the key techniques of dynamic data driven forest fire spreading system[D].Beijing:Chinese Academy of Forestry,2008(in Chinese).
[25]Guenneau S,Puvirajesinghe T M.Fick's second law transformed:one path to cloaking in mass diffusion[J].Journal of the Royal Society Interface,2013,10(83):20130106.
[26]张新民.空气污染学[M].天津:天津大学出版社,2006.Zhang Xinmin.Air pollution[M].Tianjin:Tianjin University Press,2006(in Chinese).