山火灾害下电网输电线路关键性评估方法
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摘要
山火灾害蔓延区域广、爆发时间密集,能够造成区域内多条线路连锁式跳闸,威胁电力系统安全稳定运行,而现有关键路辨识方法评估角度单一,且指标权重选取多依靠主观经验。为研究大范围山火下多条线路同时面临跳闸风险的线路关键性评估方法,从线路的运行特征与跳闸后果2个角度总结和建立了线路关键性评价标集;基于超效率数据包络分析模型,构建了多角度的关键线路综合评估指标体系。以某省历史山火高发期为案例分析该方法的有效性。结果表明,该方法能够实时、有效地辨识出大范围灾害下电网中的关键线路,为大范围山火灾害下电网的安全运行提供辅助决策指导。
Wildfires can cause trips of multiple transmission-lines in a short period and threaten the safe operation of a power grid. The existing key transmission-line evaluation methods are normally based on single factor or subjectively selected factors, thus they are unable to evaluate the key transmission-line under large-scale wildfires comprehensively and reasonably. We put forward a new method for key transmission-line aggregate evaluation based on super efficiency data envelopment analysis. Considering both static operation status and line tripping influence of transmission-lines, we established factors for both two sides, and proposed a new comprehensive key transmission-line evaluation method with multiple factors. We applied the method to a power grid in a wildfire-prone region. The test results show that the method identifies the key transmission-line rapidly and effectively, and thus can provide an auxiliary decision guidance for the safe operation of the power grid.
Wildfires can cause trips of multiple transmission-lines in a short period and threaten the safe operation of a power grid. The existing key transmission-line evaluation methods are normally based on single factor or subjectively selected factors, thus they are unable to evaluate the key transmission-line under large-scale wildfires comprehensively and reasonably. We put forward a new method for key transmission-line aggregate evaluation based on super efficiency data envelopment analysis. Considering both static operation status and line tripping influence of transmission-lines, we established factors for both two sides, and proposed a new comprehensive key transmission-line evaluation method with multiple factors. We applied the method to a power grid in a wildfire-prone region. The test results show that the method identifies the key transmission-line rapidly and effectively, and thus can provide an auxiliary decision guidance for the safe operation of the power grid.
引文
[1]吴勇军,薛禹胜,陆佳政,等.山火灾害对电网故障率的时空影响[J].电力系统自动化,2016,40(3):14-20.WU Yongjun,XUE Yusheng,LU Jiazheng,et al.Space-time impact of forest fire on power grid fault probability[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2016,40(3):14-20.
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[9]刘文颖,梁才,徐鹏,等.基于潮流介数的电力系统关键线路辨识[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(31):90-98.LIU Wenying,LIANG Cai,XU Peng,et al.Identification of critical line in power systems based on flow betweenness[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2013,33(31):90-98.
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[12]陆佳政,刘毓,徐勋建,等.架空输电线路山火预测预警技术[J].高电压技术,2017,43(1):314-320.LU Jiazheng,LIU Yu,XU Xunjian,et al.Prediction and early warning technology of wildfire nearby overhead transmission lines[J].High Voltage Engineering,2017,43(1):314-320.
[13]周志宇,艾欣,陆佳政,等.山火灾害引发的输电线路跳闸风险实时分析方法及应用[J].中国电机工程学报,2017,37(18):5321-5330,5531.ZHOU Zhiyu,AI Xin,LU Jiazheng,et al.A real-time analysis approach and its application for transmission-line trip risk due to wildfire disaster[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2017,37(18):5321-5330,5531.
[14]CHARNES A W,COOPER W W,RHODES E L.Measuring efficiency of decision-making units[J].European Journal of Operational Research,1979,2(6):429-444.
[15]魏权龄.数据包络分析(DEA)[J].科学通报,2000,45(17):1793-1808.WEI Quanling.DEA.data envelopment analysis[J].Chinese Science Bulletin Chinese Science Bulletin,2000,45(17):1793-1808.
[16]SARRICO C S.Data envelopment analysis:a comprehensive text with models,applications,references and dea-solver software[J].Journal of the Operational Research Society,2001,52(12):1408-1409.
[17]王羽佳,李华强,刘沛清,等.基于改进DEAHP模型的支路综合脆弱性评估方法[J].电网技术,2016,40(4):1249-1256.WANG Yujia,LI Huaqiang,LIU Peiqing,et al.A branch comprehensive vulnerability assessment method based on improved DEAHPmodel[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(4):1249-1256.
[18]严正,李磊,韩冬,等.基于改进超效率数据包络分析的低碳电力生产效率评估模型[J].电力系统自动化,2014,38(17):170-176.YAN Zheng,LI Lei,HAN Dong,et al.Evaluation model for low-carbon electricity production efficiency based on improved super efficiency data envelopment analysis method[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2014,38(17):170-176.
[19]吴杰康,严进.基于数据包络分析的梯级水电站发电效率优化模型[J].中国电机工程学报,2011,31(增刊1):30-37.WU Jiekang,YAN Jin.An optimization model for production efficiency of the cascaded hydropower plants based on data envelopment analysis[J].Power System Technology,2011,31(Supplement 1):30-37.
[20]赵莎莎,吕智林,吴杰康,等.基于数据包络分析和云模型的火电厂效率评价方法[J].电网技术,2012,36(4):184-189.ZHAO Shasha,LüZhilin,WU Jiekang,et al.A method to evaluate efficiency of fossl-fuel generating plants based on data envelopment analysis and cloud model[J].Power System Technology,2012,36(4):184-189.
[21]吴政球,李日波,钟浩,等.电力系统静态电压稳定极限及裕度计算综述[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2010,22(1):126-132.WU Zhengqiu,LI Ribo,ZHONG Hao,et al.Summary of power system’s static voltage stability limitation and load margin calculation[J].Proceedings of the Chinese Society of Universities,2010,22(1):126-132.
[22]闫常友,周孝信,康建东,等.潮流转移灵敏度以及安全评估指标研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2010,30(19):7-13.YAN Xueyou,ZHOU Xiaoxin,KANG Jiandong,et al.Flow transferring sensitivity and security index analysis[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2010,30(19):7-13.
[23]赵峰,孙宏斌,谭嫣,等.综合考虑多种电网安全主题的关键断面自动发现方法[J].电网技术,2014,38(5):1169-1174.ZHAO feng,SUN Hongbin,TAN Yan,et al.Automatic discovery method of power system critical flowgates considering multiple security themes in power grid[J].Power System Technology,2014,38(5):1169-1174.
[24]胡毅,刘凯,吴田,等.输电线路运行安全影响因素分析及防治措施[J].高电压技术,2014,40(11):3491-3499.HU Yi,LIU Kai,WU Tian,et al.Analysis of influential factors on operation safety of transmission line and countermeasures[J].High Voltage Engineering,2014,40(11):3491-3499.
[25]吴萍,林伟芳,孙华东,等.多馈入直流输电系统换相失败机制及特性[J].电网技术,2012,36(5):269-274.WU Ping,LIN Weifang,SUN Huadong,et al.Research and electromechanical transient simulation on mechanism of commutation failure in multi-infeed HVDC power transmission system[J].Power System Technology,2012,36(5):269-274.
[26]李文沅.电力系统风险评估模型、方法和应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2006.LI Wenyuan.Risk assessment of power systems models,methods,and applications[M].Beijing,China:Science Press,2006.
[2]陆佳政,刘毓,吴传平,等.输电线路山火卫星监测与告警算法研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(21):5511-5519.LU Jiazheng,LIU Yu,WU Chuanping,et al.Study on satellite monitoring and alarm calculation algorithm of wild fire near transmission lines[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2015,35(21):5511-5519.
[3]鞠文云,李银红.基于最大流传输贡献度的电力网关键线路和节点辨识[J].电力系统自动化,2012,36(9):6-12.JU Wenyun,LI Yinhong.Identification of critical lines and nodes in power grid based on maximum flow transmission contribution degree[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2012,36(9):6-12.
[4]杨文辉,毕天姝,黄少锋,等.于电网生存性评估的关键线路识别方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2011,31(7):29-35.YANG Wenhui,BI Tianshu,HUANG Shaofeng,et al.An approach for critical lines identification based on the survivability of power grid[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2011,31(7):29-35.
[5]刘国良,刘艳,顾雪平.输电网网架恢复方案关键线路辨识[J].电力系统自动化,2011,35(1):23-28.LIU Guoliang,LIU Yan,GU Xueping.Identification of critical lines in restoration scheme for transmission network[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2011,35(1):23-28.
[6]林予彰,石立宝,姚良忠,等.一种多准则综合的电压脆弱性评估方法[J].电力系统自动化,2014,38(23):54-59.LIN Yuzhang,SHI Libao,YAO Liangzhong,et al.A multi-criteria integrated method for voltage vulnerability assessment[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2014,38(23):54-59.
[7]刘友波,刘俊勇,王民昆,等.计及动能注入介数的线路暂态脆弱性快速评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2011,31(13):40-47.LIU Youbo,LIU Junyong,WANG Minkun,et al.Fast assessment method for transient vulnerability of transmission lines based on kinetic energy injection betweenness[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2011,31(13):40-47.
[8]马静,王希,王增平.基于线路运行介数的过负荷脆弱性评估[J].电网技术,2012,36(6):47-50.MA Jing,WANG Xi,WANG Zengping.Operation betweenness based assessment on overload vulnerability[J].Power System Technology2012,36(6):47-50.
[9]刘文颖,梁才,徐鹏,等.基于潮流介数的电力系统关键线路辨识[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(31):90-98.LIU Wenying,LIANG Cai,XU Peng,et al.Identification of critical line in power systems based on flow betweenness[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2013,33(31):90-98.
[10]曾凯文,文劲宇,程时杰,等.复杂电网连锁故障下的关键线路辨识[J].中国电机工程学报,2014,34(7):1103-1112.ZENG Kaiwen,WEN Jinyu,CHENG Shijie,et al.Critical line identification of complex power system in cascading failure[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2014,34(7):1103-1112.
[11]陆佳政,周特军,吴传平,等.某省级电网220 k V及以上输电线路故障统计与分析[J].高电压技术,2016,42(1):200-207.LU Jiazheng,ZHOU Tejun,WU Chuanping,et al.Fault statistics and analysis of 220 k V and above power transmission line in province-level power grid[J].High Voltage Engineering,2014,34(7):1103-1112.
[12]陆佳政,刘毓,徐勋建,等.架空输电线路山火预测预警技术[J].高电压技术,2017,43(1):314-320.LU Jiazheng,LIU Yu,XU Xunjian,et al.Prediction and early warning technology of wildfire nearby overhead transmission lines[J].High Voltage Engineering,2017,43(1):314-320.
[13]周志宇,艾欣,陆佳政,等.山火灾害引发的输电线路跳闸风险实时分析方法及应用[J].中国电机工程学报,2017,37(18):5321-5330,5531.ZHOU Zhiyu,AI Xin,LU Jiazheng,et al.A real-time analysis approach and its application for transmission-line trip risk due to wildfire disaster[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2017,37(18):5321-5330,5531.
[14]CHARNES A W,COOPER W W,RHODES E L.Measuring efficiency of decision-making units[J].European Journal of Operational Research,1979,2(6):429-444.
[15]魏权龄.数据包络分析(DEA)[J].科学通报,2000,45(17):1793-1808.WEI Quanling.DEA.data envelopment analysis[J].Chinese Science Bulletin Chinese Science Bulletin,2000,45(17):1793-1808.
[16]SARRICO C S.Data envelopment analysis:a comprehensive text with models,applications,references and dea-solver software[J].Journal of the Operational Research Society,2001,52(12):1408-1409.
[17]王羽佳,李华强,刘沛清,等.基于改进DEAHP模型的支路综合脆弱性评估方法[J].电网技术,2016,40(4):1249-1256.WANG Yujia,LI Huaqiang,LIU Peiqing,et al.A branch comprehensive vulnerability assessment method based on improved DEAHPmodel[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(4):1249-1256.
[18]严正,李磊,韩冬,等.基于改进超效率数据包络分析的低碳电力生产效率评估模型[J].电力系统自动化,2014,38(17):170-176.YAN Zheng,LI Lei,HAN Dong,et al.Evaluation model for low-carbon electricity production efficiency based on improved super efficiency data envelopment analysis method[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2014,38(17):170-176.
[19]吴杰康,严进.基于数据包络分析的梯级水电站发电效率优化模型[J].中国电机工程学报,2011,31(增刊1):30-37.WU Jiekang,YAN Jin.An optimization model for production efficiency of the cascaded hydropower plants based on data envelopment analysis[J].Power System Technology,2011,31(Supplement 1):30-37.
[20]赵莎莎,吕智林,吴杰康,等.基于数据包络分析和云模型的火电厂效率评价方法[J].电网技术,2012,36(4):184-189.ZHAO Shasha,LüZhilin,WU Jiekang,et al.A method to evaluate efficiency of fossl-fuel generating plants based on data envelopment analysis and cloud model[J].Power System Technology,2012,36(4):184-189.
[21]吴政球,李日波,钟浩,等.电力系统静态电压稳定极限及裕度计算综述[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2010,22(1):126-132.WU Zhengqiu,LI Ribo,ZHONG Hao,et al.Summary of power system’s static voltage stability limitation and load margin calculation[J].Proceedings of the Chinese Society of Universities,2010,22(1):126-132.
[22]闫常友,周孝信,康建东,等.潮流转移灵敏度以及安全评估指标研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2010,30(19):7-13.YAN Xueyou,ZHOU Xiaoxin,KANG Jiandong,et al.Flow transferring sensitivity and security index analysis[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2010,30(19):7-13.
[23]赵峰,孙宏斌,谭嫣,等.综合考虑多种电网安全主题的关键断面自动发现方法[J].电网技术,2014,38(5):1169-1174.ZHAO feng,SUN Hongbin,TAN Yan,et al.Automatic discovery method of power system critical flowgates considering multiple security themes in power grid[J].Power System Technology,2014,38(5):1169-1174.
[24]胡毅,刘凯,吴田,等.输电线路运行安全影响因素分析及防治措施[J].高电压技术,2014,40(11):3491-3499.HU Yi,LIU Kai,WU Tian,et al.Analysis of influential factors on operation safety of transmission line and countermeasures[J].High Voltage Engineering,2014,40(11):3491-3499.
[25]吴萍,林伟芳,孙华东,等.多馈入直流输电系统换相失败机制及特性[J].电网技术,2012,36(5):269-274.WU Ping,LIN Weifang,SUN Huadong,et al.Research and electromechanical transient simulation on mechanism of commutation failure in multi-infeed HVDC power transmission system[J].Power System Technology,2012,36(5):269-274.
[26]李文沅.电力系统风险评估模型、方法和应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2006.LI Wenyuan.Risk assessment of power systems models,methods,and applications[M].Beijing,China:Science Press,2006.