黄土-红层接触面滑坡稳定性可靠性分析
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摘要
针对黄土-红层接触面滑坡存在的变异性、随机性、不确定性,为了充分考虑其影响因素,利用Monte-Carlo法的基本原理,结合传递系数法建立滑坡稳定性可靠性分析的状态功能函数,从而得到以失稳概率P_f和可靠性β为指标的滑坡稳定性可靠性分析结果。以天水-陇西滑坡密集带中典型的黄土-红层接触面滑坡为例,通过现场勘察、室内实验、理论分析等,分析了滑坡基本特征、岩土体性质以及影响因素。在分析滑坡形成机制的基础上,统计分析滑带土黏聚力c、内摩擦角φ得到其均值、标准差、变异系数、分布规律等,借助VC++程序设计,从而计算得到该滑坡失稳概率和稳定性可靠性。由分析结果可知,该方法得到的滑坡稳定性与传统稳定性分析方法基本一致;该方法从多角度、多指标综合分析了滑坡稳定状态,提高了滑坡稳定性评价精度。
The stability of the loess-red mudstone interface landslide which has variability,randomness and uncertainty is affected by multiple factors.In order to thoroughly analyse the factors,the Monte-Carlo method was combined with the state function of reliability analysis on landslide stabilization established by transmitting coefficient method and was introduced to obtain the reliability analysis results indexed by instability probability P_f and reliabilityβ.In this study,loess-red mudstone interface landslide in TianshuiLongxi landslide belts was taken as example,and both site investigation and laboratory experiment were applied to investigate the basic characteristics of the landslide,the properties of rock and soil and influencing factors.Based on the analysis of landslide formation mechanism,statistical analysis and theory analysis on sliding soil cohesion(c),internal friction angle(φ)was conducted to get their mean values,standard deviations,variation coefficients and distribution rules with the aid of the VC++ design program,so as to calculate the instability probability P_fand reliabilityβ.The analysis result shows that the stability of the landslide obtained bythis method is consistent with the stability analyzed by traditional analysis methods,but this method improved the accuracy of landslide stability evaluation through multi-perspective and multi-index analysis of landslide stability.
The stability of the loess-red mudstone interface landslide which has variability,randomness and uncertainty is affected by multiple factors.In order to thoroughly analyse the factors,the Monte-Carlo method was combined with the state function of reliability analysis on landslide stabilization established by transmitting coefficient method and was introduced to obtain the reliability analysis results indexed by instability probability P_f and reliabilityβ.In this study,loess-red mudstone interface landslide in TianshuiLongxi landslide belts was taken as example,and both site investigation and laboratory experiment were applied to investigate the basic characteristics of the landslide,the properties of rock and soil and influencing factors.Based on the analysis of landslide formation mechanism,statistical analysis and theory analysis on sliding soil cohesion(c),internal friction angle(φ)was conducted to get their mean values,standard deviations,variation coefficients and distribution rules with the aid of the VC++ design program,so as to calculate the instability probability P_fand reliabilityβ.The analysis result shows that the stability of the landslide obtained bythis method is consistent with the stability analyzed by traditional analysis methods,but this method improved the accuracy of landslide stability evaluation through multi-perspective and multi-index analysis of landslide stability.
引文
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[2]曾佑江.黄土滑坡研究现状及其展望[J].地下水,2015,37(1):221-223.
[3]许领,戴福初,闵弘.黄土滑坡研究现状与设想[J].地球科学进展,2008,23(3):236-242.
[4]靳泽先,张世武.地质灾害的分布规律及其应用[J].甘肃科学学报,1996,8(增刊):123-128.
[5]雷祥义.黄上高原地质灾害与人类活动[M].北京:地质出版社,2001.
[6]刘红玫,石玉成.黄土地区不同类型滑坡的特征及影响因素[J].西北地震学报,2006,28(4):360-363.
[7]吴玮江,王念秦.黄土滑坡的基本类型与活动特征[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2002,13(2):36-40.
[8]吴玮江,宿星,刘伟,等.黄土-泥岩接触面滑坡的特征与成因[J].冰川冻土,2014,36(5):1167-1175.
[9]Wen Baoping,Wang Sijing,Wang Enzhi,et al.Deformation characteristics of loess landslide along the contact between loess and Neocene red mudstone[J].Acta Geologica Sinica,2005,79(1):139-151.
[10]李媛,吴奇.孟家山黄土-红层接触面滑坡破坏机理研究[J].水文地质工程地质,2001,28(1):52-54.
[11]石瑞红.黄土-红层接触面滑坡形成演化机理[D].兰州:兰州大学,2013.
[12]贾桢.天水某黄土-红层接触面滑坡形成机理及其演化过程[D].兰州:兰州大学,2013.
[13]杨天鸿,张锋春,于庆磊,等.露天矿高陡边坡稳定性研究现状及发展趋势[J].岩土力学,2011,32(5):1437-1451,1472.
[14]武登辉.岩土参数不确定性研究及工程应用[D].杭州:浙江大学,2012.
[15]刘亚峰,刘高,陈龙飞,等.基于D-S证据理论的黄土滑坡参数估计及应用[J].地震工程学报,2014,36(3):446-451.
[16]罗文强,赵文斌,王亮清.三峡库区长江水位变化条件下滑坡稳定性二元指标体系研究[J].地球与环境,2005,33(增刊):42-45.
[17]刘慧,杨更社,叶万军,等.基于Monte-Carlo法的多级黄土滑坡危险性评价[J].煤田地质与勘探,2016,44(1):94-99,102.
[18]尹小涛,王水林.基于可靠度理论的滑坡稳定性及其影响因素分析[J].岩土力学,2008,29(6):1551-1556.
[19]吴振君,葛修润,王水林.考虑地质成因的土坡可靠度分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2011,30(9):1904-1911.