基于SARIMA模型的赣江流域近50年参考作物需水量预测
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摘要
基于赣江流域12个代表气象站点1961—2010年的逐日气象观测资料,采用Penman-Monteith公式计算了各站点逐日参考作物需水量,整理得到赣江流域及上、中、下游3个子区域的参考作物需水量年度和月度数据,对其变化特征进行了分析。赣江流域50 a参考作物需水量年际变化较大,年内变化呈现出明显的季节性特征。在考虑了季节性因素的基础上,利用BIC准则法确定模型最佳阶数,建立了赣江流域参考作物需水量的季节性ARIMA模型,对研究区域的参考作物需水量进行了拟合与预测,并验证了模型的显著性。预测结果表明,模型的平均相对误差在合理范围之内。
Based on the daily meteorological observation data of 12 representative meteorological stations in the Ganjiang River Basin from 1961 to 2010, the Penman-Monteith formula was used to calculate the daily reference crop evapotranspiration of each station. The annual and monthly reference crop evapotranspiration data were divided into three parts according to the upper,middle and lower reaches,which were analyzed for their changing characteristics. The results showed that the interannual variation of the 50-year reference crop evapotranspiration in the Ganjiang River Basin was relatively large. The intra-annual changes showed significant seasonal characteristics. Based on the seasonal factors, the BIC criterion method was used to determine the optimal order of the model and the seasonal ARIMA model was established to fitted and predicted the reference crop evapotranspiration of Ganjiang River Basin and also validate its significance.The prediction shows that average relative error of the model is within reasonable range.
Based on the daily meteorological observation data of 12 representative meteorological stations in the Ganjiang River Basin from 1961 to 2010, the Penman-Monteith formula was used to calculate the daily reference crop evapotranspiration of each station. The annual and monthly reference crop evapotranspiration data were divided into three parts according to the upper,middle and lower reaches,which were analyzed for their changing characteristics. The results showed that the interannual variation of the 50-year reference crop evapotranspiration in the Ganjiang River Basin was relatively large. The intra-annual changes showed significant seasonal characteristics. Based on the seasonal factors, the BIC criterion method was used to determine the optimal order of the model and the seasonal ARIMA model was established to fitted and predicted the reference crop evapotranspiration of Ganjiang River Basin and also validate its significance.The prediction shows that average relative error of the model is within reasonable range.
引文
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[3] ALLEN R,SMITH M,PEREIRA L,et al.An update for the calculation of reference evapotranspiration[J].ICID Bulletin,1994,43(2):35-92.
[4] 许迪,刘钰.测定和估算田间作物腾发量方法研究综述[J].灌溉排水,1997(4):56-61.
[5] 王黎明,王连,杨楠.应用时间序列分析[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2008:7-9.
[6] 郑小华,杜莉丽.基于季节性模型的长期降水预测预报检验[J].安徽农业科学,2013,41(28):11454-11455.
[7] ALLEN R G.Guidelines for Computing Crop Water Requirements(FAO-56) [M].Utah State University,1998:4-278.
[8] 郑浩然,潘雨青,李世伟,等.基于季节性ARIMA模型的小区供水预测[J].计算机应用与软件,2018,35(1):118-122.
[9] 黄显峰,邵东国,阳书敏.降雨时间序列分解预测模型及应用[J].中国农村水利水电,2007(9):6-8.
[10] 吴喜.时间序列建模与模型选择的应用研究[D].合肥:合肥工业大学,2006.