气候变化背景下湖北川金丝猴种群生存力分析
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摘要
气候变化预计将改变野生动物的潜在适宜生境面积、分布与格局,从而加剧濒危物种的灭绝风险。湖北川金丝猴种群(Rhinopithecus roxellana)相对较低的遗传多样性、孤立的遗传状态和较小的种群数量,使得该种群面对环境变化具有更高的脆弱性。研究该种群在气候变化下的生境变化及种群动态,可为今后制定气候变化下的适应性对策提供参考。本文基于湖北川金丝猴分布点、生物气候变量及环境变量,建立川金丝猴物种分布模型,评估气候变化对川金丝猴未来(2050s)生境及环境容纳量的影响;结合川金丝猴种群参数,利用漩涡模型预测100年内,川金丝猴受到气候变化及极端天气灾害影响下的种群生存力状况。结果显示,在气候变化下,2050s川金丝猴适宜生境相比当前减少64.45%,大龙潭亚群、金猴岭亚群和千家坪亚群的环境容纳量相比当前分别下降93.48%、72.86%和13.96%;当前情景下,湖北川金丝猴在100年内种群数量能够保持逐渐增长,说明该种群是一个具有一定繁殖力的种群;极端天气灾害和气候变化均能造成湖北川金丝猴种群数量不同程度下降,二者共同作用时影响最大;不同亚群对极端天气灾害和气候变化的敏感性不同。因此,保护适宜生境、保证生境间连通性及提供极端天气灾害的干预保护是湖北川金丝猴种群保护的重要途径。
Climate change is anticipated to alter habitat area,distribution and configuration of wildlife,exacerbating the extinction risk for endangered species. Sichuan golden snub-nosed monkey( Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Hubei Province is vulnerable to environmental change because it is genetically distinct and has a small population size with low genetic diversity. Simulations of habitat shifts and population dynamics under climate change can assist in recommending effective adaptive strategies for its conservation. Here,we built a species distribution model based on monkey occurrences associated with bioclimatic and environmental variables. We assessed the extent to which climate change would impact monkey habitat distribution and carrying capacity from the current to the 2050 s. Using Vortex model combined with population parameters,we predicted the monkey population's viability in the period of 100 years in existence of extreme weather disaster and climate change. Our results showed a potential habitat loss of 64.45% due to climate change by the 2050 s,resulting in a decrease in the carrying capacity of 93.48%,72.86%and 13.96% for the Dalongtan,Jinhoulin and Qianjiaping subpopulations,respectively. Without the influence of climate change,the Sichuan golden snub-nosed monkey population size in Hubei Province would gradually increase,indicating that the population has certain fecundity. The greatest impact on reduction in population size occurs when extreme weather disasters and climate change happen simultaneously. However,sensitivity to extreme weather disaster and climate change varied among different subpopulations. The protection of current suitable habitat and connectivity between habitats as well as the provision of interventional protection for extreme weather disasters are fundamental ways to conserve the species.
Climate change is anticipated to alter habitat area,distribution and configuration of wildlife,exacerbating the extinction risk for endangered species. Sichuan golden snub-nosed monkey( Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Hubei Province is vulnerable to environmental change because it is genetically distinct and has a small population size with low genetic diversity. Simulations of habitat shifts and population dynamics under climate change can assist in recommending effective adaptive strategies for its conservation. Here,we built a species distribution model based on monkey occurrences associated with bioclimatic and environmental variables. We assessed the extent to which climate change would impact monkey habitat distribution and carrying capacity from the current to the 2050 s. Using Vortex model combined with population parameters,we predicted the monkey population's viability in the period of 100 years in existence of extreme weather disaster and climate change. Our results showed a potential habitat loss of 64.45% due to climate change by the 2050 s,resulting in a decrease in the carrying capacity of 93.48%,72.86%and 13.96% for the Dalongtan,Jinhoulin and Qianjiaping subpopulations,respectively. Without the influence of climate change,the Sichuan golden snub-nosed monkey population size in Hubei Province would gradually increase,indicating that the population has certain fecundity. The greatest impact on reduction in population size occurs when extreme weather disasters and climate change happen simultaneously. However,sensitivity to extreme weather disaster and climate change varied among different subpopulations. The protection of current suitable habitat and connectivity between habitats as well as the provision of interventional protection for extreme weather disasters are fundamental ways to conserve the species.
引文
范朋飞,蒋学龙.2007.无量山大寨子黑长臂猿(Nomascus concolor fingdongensis)种群生存力.生态学报,27(2):620-626.
侯万儒,任正隆,胡锦矗.2003.唐家河自然保护区黑熊种群生存力初步分析.广西科学,10(4):301-304.
李佳,李言阔,缪泸君,等.2014.江西桃红岭国家级自然保护区梅花鹿种群生存力分析.江西科学,32(6):815-822.
李欣海,李典谟,路宝忠,等.1996.朱鹮(Nipponia nippon)种群生存力分析.生物多样性,4(2):69-77.
梁冰,戚汉君,张树义,等.2001.笼养川金丝猴不同年龄阶段的发育特征.动物学报,47(4):381-387.
苏化龙,马强,林英华,等.2004.湖北省巴东县小神农架地区川金丝猴的种群调查.兽类学报,24(1):84-87.
田瑜,邬建国,寇晓军,等.2011.种群生存力分析(PVA)的方法与应用.应用生态学报,22(1):257-267.
铁军,张晶,彭林鹏,等.2011.神农架川金丝猴冬春季节取食影响因素.生态学杂志,30(11):2562-2569.
王昊,李松岗,潘文石.2002.秦岭大熊猫(Ailuropoda melanoleuca)的种群存活力分析.北京大学学报:自然科学版,38(6):756-761.
王程亮,王晓卫,赵海涛,等.2016.秦岭大坪峪川金丝猴(Rhinopithecus roxellana)种群生存力分析.生态学报,36(23):7724-7731.
肖文,霍晟,向左甫,等.2005.黑白仰鼻猴种群生存力初步分析.动物学研究,26(1):9-16.
杨敬元,廖明尧,余辉亮,等.2008.神农架金丝猴保护与研究现状.世界科技研究与发展,30(4):418-421.
张先锋,王丁,王克雄.1994.漩涡模型及其在白暨豚种群管理中的应用.生物多样性,2(3):133-139.
Boyce MS.1992.Population viability analysis.Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics,23:481-497.
Chang Z,Liu Z,Yang J,et al.2012.Noninvasive genetic assessment of the population trend and sex ratio of the Shennongjia population of Sichuan snub-nosed monkeys(Rhinopithecus roxellana).Chinese Science Bulletin,57:1135-1141.
Cord AF,Klein D,Mora F,et al.2014.Comparing the suitability of classified land cover data and remote sensing variables for modeling distribution patterns of plants.Ecological Modelling,272:129-140.
Elith J,Yates CJ.2015.A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists.Diversity&Distributions,17:43-57.
Fowler CW.1981.Density dependence as related to life history strategy.Ecology,62:602-610.
Gouveia SF,Souza-Alves JP,Rattis L,et al.2016.Climate and land use changes will degrade the configuration of the landscape for titi monkeys in eastern Brazil.Global Change Biology,22:2003-2012.
Khatchikian C,Sangermano F,Kendell D,et al.2011.Evaluation of species distribution model algorithms for fine-scale container breeding mosquito risk prediction.Medical and Veterinary Entomology,25:268-275.
Kirkpatrick RC,Long YC,Zhong T,et al.1998.Social organization and range use in the Yunnan snub-nosed monkey Rhinopithecus bieti.International Journal of Primatology,19:13-51.
Lacy RC,Pollak JP.2017.Vortex:A Stochastic Simulation of the Extinction Process.Version 10.2.14 Chicago Zoological Society,Brookfield,Illinois,USA.
Lambers JHR.2015.Extinction risks from climate change.Science,348:501-502.
Li J,Liu F,Xue Y,et al.2017.Assessing vulnerability of giant pandas to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China.Ecology and Evolution,7:4003-4015.
Li L,Wu G,Xue Y,et al.2011.Habitat and connectivity of the black snub-nosed monkey(Rhinopithecus bieti)populations in Yunnan:A climate change scenario.VIth European Congress of Mammalogy.
Li M,Liu Z,Gou J,et al.2007.Phylogeography and population structure of the golden monkeys(Rhinopithecus roxellana):Inferred from mitochondrial DNA sequences.American Journal of Primatology,69:1195-1209.
Li Y,Liu X,Liao M,et al.2009.Characteristics of a group of Hubei golden snub-nosed monkeys(Rhinopithecus roxellana hubeiensis)before and after major snow storms.American Journal of Primatology,71:523-526.
Lister NM,Brocki M,Ament R.2015.Integrated adaptive design for wildlife movement under climate change.Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment,13:493-502.
Liu Z,Liu G,Roos C,et al.2015.Implications of genetics and current protected areas for conservation of 5 endangered primates in China.Conservation Biology,29:1508-1517.
Luo M,Pan H,Liu Z,et al.2012.Balancing selection and genetic drift at major histocompatibility complex class IIgenes in isolated populations of golden snub-nosed monkey(Rhinopithecus roxellana).BMC Evolutionary Biology,12:207.
Luo Z,Zhou S,Yu W,et al.2015.Impacts of climate change on the distribution of Sichuan snub-nosed monkeys(Rhinopithecus roxellana)in Shennongjia area,China:Climate change impacts on snub-nosed monkey.American Journal of Primatology,77:135-151.
Manh VV,Hoang TM,Van PT.2010.Using environmental niche model to study the distribution of Tonkin snub-nosed monkey(Rhinopithecus avunculus)in the Northeastern Vietnam under some climate change scenarios.International Conference on Informatics for Environmental Protection in Cooperation with Intergeo2010:Integration of Environmental Information in Europe.
O’Grady JJ,Brook BW,Reed DH,et al.2006.Realistic levels of inbreeding depression strongly affect extinction risk in wild populations.Biological Conservation,133:42-51.
Pan D,Hu H,Meng S,et al.2009.A high polymorphism level in Rhinopithecus roxellana.International Journal of Primatology,30:337-351.
Parmesan C.2006.Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change.Annual Review of Ecology,Evolution and Systematics,37:637-669.
Phillips SJ,Anderson RP,Schapire RE.2006.Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions.Ecological Modelling,190:231-259.
Qi XG,Li BG,Ji WH.2008.Reproductive parameters of wild female Rhinopithecus roxellana.American Journal of Primatology,70:311-319.
Searcy CA,Shaffer HB.2016.Do ecological niche models accurately identify climatic determinants of species ranges?American Naturalist,187:423-435.
Songer M,Delion M,Biggs A,et al.2012.Modeling impacts of climate change on giant panda habitat.International Journal of Ecology,2012:1-12.
Struebig MJ,Fischer M,Gaveau DLA,et al.2015.Anticipated climate and land-cover changes reveal refuge areas for Borneo’s orang-utans.Global Change Biology,21:2891-2904.
UNFCCC.2015.Adoption of the Paris agreement.Report No.FCCC/CP/2015/L.9/Rev.1.Retrieved from http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf.
侯万儒,任正隆,胡锦矗.2003.唐家河自然保护区黑熊种群生存力初步分析.广西科学,10(4):301-304.
李佳,李言阔,缪泸君,等.2014.江西桃红岭国家级自然保护区梅花鹿种群生存力分析.江西科学,32(6):815-822.
李欣海,李典谟,路宝忠,等.1996.朱鹮(Nipponia nippon)种群生存力分析.生物多样性,4(2):69-77.
梁冰,戚汉君,张树义,等.2001.笼养川金丝猴不同年龄阶段的发育特征.动物学报,47(4):381-387.
苏化龙,马强,林英华,等.2004.湖北省巴东县小神农架地区川金丝猴的种群调查.兽类学报,24(1):84-87.
田瑜,邬建国,寇晓军,等.2011.种群生存力分析(PVA)的方法与应用.应用生态学报,22(1):257-267.
铁军,张晶,彭林鹏,等.2011.神农架川金丝猴冬春季节取食影响因素.生态学杂志,30(11):2562-2569.
王昊,李松岗,潘文石.2002.秦岭大熊猫(Ailuropoda melanoleuca)的种群存活力分析.北京大学学报:自然科学版,38(6):756-761.
王程亮,王晓卫,赵海涛,等.2016.秦岭大坪峪川金丝猴(Rhinopithecus roxellana)种群生存力分析.生态学报,36(23):7724-7731.
肖文,霍晟,向左甫,等.2005.黑白仰鼻猴种群生存力初步分析.动物学研究,26(1):9-16.
杨敬元,廖明尧,余辉亮,等.2008.神农架金丝猴保护与研究现状.世界科技研究与发展,30(4):418-421.
张先锋,王丁,王克雄.1994.漩涡模型及其在白暨豚种群管理中的应用.生物多样性,2(3):133-139.
Boyce MS.1992.Population viability analysis.Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics,23:481-497.
Chang Z,Liu Z,Yang J,et al.2012.Noninvasive genetic assessment of the population trend and sex ratio of the Shennongjia population of Sichuan snub-nosed monkeys(Rhinopithecus roxellana).Chinese Science Bulletin,57:1135-1141.
Cord AF,Klein D,Mora F,et al.2014.Comparing the suitability of classified land cover data and remote sensing variables for modeling distribution patterns of plants.Ecological Modelling,272:129-140.
Elith J,Yates CJ.2015.A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists.Diversity&Distributions,17:43-57.
Fowler CW.1981.Density dependence as related to life history strategy.Ecology,62:602-610.
Gouveia SF,Souza-Alves JP,Rattis L,et al.2016.Climate and land use changes will degrade the configuration of the landscape for titi monkeys in eastern Brazil.Global Change Biology,22:2003-2012.
Khatchikian C,Sangermano F,Kendell D,et al.2011.Evaluation of species distribution model algorithms for fine-scale container breeding mosquito risk prediction.Medical and Veterinary Entomology,25:268-275.
Kirkpatrick RC,Long YC,Zhong T,et al.1998.Social organization and range use in the Yunnan snub-nosed monkey Rhinopithecus bieti.International Journal of Primatology,19:13-51.
Lacy RC,Pollak JP.2017.Vortex:A Stochastic Simulation of the Extinction Process.Version 10.2.14 Chicago Zoological Society,Brookfield,Illinois,USA.
Lambers JHR.2015.Extinction risks from climate change.Science,348:501-502.
Li J,Liu F,Xue Y,et al.2017.Assessing vulnerability of giant pandas to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China.Ecology and Evolution,7:4003-4015.
Li L,Wu G,Xue Y,et al.2011.Habitat and connectivity of the black snub-nosed monkey(Rhinopithecus bieti)populations in Yunnan:A climate change scenario.VIth European Congress of Mammalogy.
Li M,Liu Z,Gou J,et al.2007.Phylogeography and population structure of the golden monkeys(Rhinopithecus roxellana):Inferred from mitochondrial DNA sequences.American Journal of Primatology,69:1195-1209.
Li Y,Liu X,Liao M,et al.2009.Characteristics of a group of Hubei golden snub-nosed monkeys(Rhinopithecus roxellana hubeiensis)before and after major snow storms.American Journal of Primatology,71:523-526.
Lister NM,Brocki M,Ament R.2015.Integrated adaptive design for wildlife movement under climate change.Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment,13:493-502.
Liu Z,Liu G,Roos C,et al.2015.Implications of genetics and current protected areas for conservation of 5 endangered primates in China.Conservation Biology,29:1508-1517.
Luo M,Pan H,Liu Z,et al.2012.Balancing selection and genetic drift at major histocompatibility complex class IIgenes in isolated populations of golden snub-nosed monkey(Rhinopithecus roxellana).BMC Evolutionary Biology,12:207.
Luo Z,Zhou S,Yu W,et al.2015.Impacts of climate change on the distribution of Sichuan snub-nosed monkeys(Rhinopithecus roxellana)in Shennongjia area,China:Climate change impacts on snub-nosed monkey.American Journal of Primatology,77:135-151.
Manh VV,Hoang TM,Van PT.2010.Using environmental niche model to study the distribution of Tonkin snub-nosed monkey(Rhinopithecus avunculus)in the Northeastern Vietnam under some climate change scenarios.International Conference on Informatics for Environmental Protection in Cooperation with Intergeo2010:Integration of Environmental Information in Europe.
O’Grady JJ,Brook BW,Reed DH,et al.2006.Realistic levels of inbreeding depression strongly affect extinction risk in wild populations.Biological Conservation,133:42-51.
Pan D,Hu H,Meng S,et al.2009.A high polymorphism level in Rhinopithecus roxellana.International Journal of Primatology,30:337-351.
Parmesan C.2006.Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change.Annual Review of Ecology,Evolution and Systematics,37:637-669.
Phillips SJ,Anderson RP,Schapire RE.2006.Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions.Ecological Modelling,190:231-259.
Qi XG,Li BG,Ji WH.2008.Reproductive parameters of wild female Rhinopithecus roxellana.American Journal of Primatology,70:311-319.
Searcy CA,Shaffer HB.2016.Do ecological niche models accurately identify climatic determinants of species ranges?American Naturalist,187:423-435.
Songer M,Delion M,Biggs A,et al.2012.Modeling impacts of climate change on giant panda habitat.International Journal of Ecology,2012:1-12.
Struebig MJ,Fischer M,Gaveau DLA,et al.2015.Anticipated climate and land-cover changes reveal refuge areas for Borneo’s orang-utans.Global Change Biology,21:2891-2904.
UNFCCC.2015.Adoption of the Paris agreement.Report No.FCCC/CP/2015/L.9/Rev.1.Retrieved from http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf.