摘要
电-热联合系统中分布式可再生能源出力波动大、电和热负荷随机变化。建立电-热联合系统含不确定性的稳态能量流模型。通过Sobol点列构造低偏差点列,基于拟蒙特卡罗模拟法对随机变量抽样,考虑随机变量之间的相关性,求解电-热联合系统的概率能量流。算例表明所提方法收敛稳定性好,为后续研究电-热联合系统安全分析奠定了基础。
The output of distributed renewable energy fluctu-ates greatly and the electrical and thermal loads vary randomly inthe combined heat and electricity system. A steady-state energyflow model with uncertainties for the combined heat and electricitysystem is established. A low deviation point series through Sobolpoint series is constructed. Based on the quasi-monte carlo simula-tion method, random variables are sampled, and the correlation be-tween random variables is considered to solve the probabilistic en-ergy flow of the combined heat and electricity system. The caseshows that the proposed method has good convergence stability,which lays a foundation for the subsequent research on the safetyanalysis of the combined heat and electricity system.
引文
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