中美贸易不平衡对美国就业影响的实证研究
|
摘要
中美贸易摩擦是由于中美双方的贸易差额状况及价值观念等差异所引起的贸易问题。随着两国经贸关系的快速发展,贸易摩擦日益加剧,美国曾多次宣称美中贸易逆差导致美国就业形势恶化。文章将理论与实证分析相结合,分析贸易收支对就业的影响机制,并选取1993—2018年美中两国贸易逆差额、美国失业人数、美国国内生产总值、美国劳动生产率的季度数据进行实证研究。结果表明:从长期来看,中美贸易失衡并不是美国失业人数增加的主要原因,美国劳动生产率及国内生产总值对其影响效应更大;从短期来看,美中贸易逆差甚至在一定程度上增加了美国就业机会。因此,将美国就业问题归结于中国对美长期贸易顺差是不合理、不客观的。
Sino-US trade frictions are caused by the trade balance and differences in values between China and the United States. With the rapid development of economic and trade relations between the two countries, trade frictions have become more and more serious. The United States has repeatedly claimed that the trade deficit between China and the United States has led to the deterioration of the employment situation in the United States. This paper combines theoretical and empirical analysis to analyze the impact mechanism of trade balance on employment. It takes quarterly data of the trade deficit between the United States and China, the number of unemployed people in the United States, the gross domestic product of the United States and the productivity of the United States from 1993 to 2018 to do empirical research. The results show that in the long run, the trade imbalance between China and the United States is not the main reason for the increase in the number of unemployed people in the United States. The impact of US labor productivity and GDP is even greater. In the short run, the Sino-US trade deficit has even reduced the number of unemployed people in the United States to some extent. Therefore, it is unreasonable and unobjective to attribute the US employment problem to China's long-term trade surplus with the United States.
Sino-US trade frictions are caused by the trade balance and differences in values between China and the United States. With the rapid development of economic and trade relations between the two countries, trade frictions have become more and more serious. The United States has repeatedly claimed that the trade deficit between China and the United States has led to the deterioration of the employment situation in the United States. This paper combines theoretical and empirical analysis to analyze the impact mechanism of trade balance on employment. It takes quarterly data of the trade deficit between the United States and China, the number of unemployed people in the United States, the gross domestic product of the United States and the productivity of the United States from 1993 to 2018 to do empirical research. The results show that in the long run, the trade imbalance between China and the United States is not the main reason for the increase in the number of unemployed people in the United States. The impact of US labor productivity and GDP is even greater. In the short run, the Sino-US trade deficit has even reduced the number of unemployed people in the United States to some extent. Therefore, it is unreasonable and unobjective to attribute the US employment problem to China's long-term trade surplus with the United States.
引文
[1] ROGOWSKY Robert A,张丽娟.就业保护与美国贸易保护新阶段[J].国际贸易问题,2018(3):1-11.
[2] WHITE R.Import competition and job displacement:Evidence from U.S.manufacturing,1981—1999[J].International trade journal,2007,21(1):1-23.
[3] ROXBURGH C,MANYIKA J,DOBBS R,et al.Trading myths:Addressing misconceptions about trade,jobs,and competitiveness [J].McKinsey global institute,2012(5).
[4] SEMIH Ak?omak,GROOT Henri de,GROOT Stefan.The impact of trade,offshoring and multinationals on job loss and job finding[R].CPB Discussion paper,CPB netherlands bureau for economic policy analysis,2013.
[5] PIERCE J R,SCHOTT P K.The surprisingly swift decline of US manufacturing employment[J].American economic review,2016,106(7):1632-1662.
[6] RIKER David.The effect of furniture imports from China on employment in U.S.regions[R].Office of economics working paper 2017-08-A,2017.
[7] KAMAL F,LOVELY M E.Import competition from and offshoring to low-income countries:Implications for employment and wages at U.S.domestic manufacturers[J].Journal of Asian economics,2017,48:100-119.
[8] 李未无.美国对华贸易逆差对美国制造业失业率影响的实证分析[J].财贸经济,2004(3):41-46+96.
[9] 项松林,赵曙东.中美贸易对美国就业影响研究——基于美国制造业面板数据的分析[J].世界经济研究,2010(11):63-68+89.
[10] 陈心颖.中美贸易逆差对美国就业影响的动态分析[J].经济社会体制比较,2012(5):193-202.
[11] 刘遵义,陈锡康,杨翠红,等.非竞争型投入占用产出模型及其应用——中美贸易顺差透视[J].中国社会科学,2007(5):91-103+206-207.
[12] 戴枫,陈百助.全球价值链分工视角下中美贸易对美国就业的影响:基于WIOT的结构性分解[J].国际贸易问题,2016(10):62-73.
[13] 金英姬,张中元.中美贸易逆差真的导致美国就业下降吗?——兼论特朗普“贸易再平衡促进就业”的困境[J].上海经济研究,2018(6):91-102.
[14] 王威.美国对华“双反”调查发展态势、成因与应对[J].国际经济合作,2018(7):40-46.
[15] 陈继勇.中美贸易战的背景、原因、本质及中国对策[J].武汉大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2018,71(5):72-81.
[16] 尹秀.贸易逆差对美国就业影响的实证研究[D].济南:山东大学,2018.
[17] 庞皓.计量经济学[M].北京:科学出版社,2014.
[18] 张晓峒.计量经济学基础[M].天津:南开大学出版社,2014.
[2] WHITE R.Import competition and job displacement:Evidence from U.S.manufacturing,1981—1999[J].International trade journal,2007,21(1):1-23.
[3] ROXBURGH C,MANYIKA J,DOBBS R,et al.Trading myths:Addressing misconceptions about trade,jobs,and competitiveness [J].McKinsey global institute,2012(5).
[4] SEMIH Ak?omak,GROOT Henri de,GROOT Stefan.The impact of trade,offshoring and multinationals on job loss and job finding[R].CPB Discussion paper,CPB netherlands bureau for economic policy analysis,2013.
[5] PIERCE J R,SCHOTT P K.The surprisingly swift decline of US manufacturing employment[J].American economic review,2016,106(7):1632-1662.
[6] RIKER David.The effect of furniture imports from China on employment in U.S.regions[R].Office of economics working paper 2017-08-A,2017.
[7] KAMAL F,LOVELY M E.Import competition from and offshoring to low-income countries:Implications for employment and wages at U.S.domestic manufacturers[J].Journal of Asian economics,2017,48:100-119.
[8] 李未无.美国对华贸易逆差对美国制造业失业率影响的实证分析[J].财贸经济,2004(3):41-46+96.
[9] 项松林,赵曙东.中美贸易对美国就业影响研究——基于美国制造业面板数据的分析[J].世界经济研究,2010(11):63-68+89.
[10] 陈心颖.中美贸易逆差对美国就业影响的动态分析[J].经济社会体制比较,2012(5):193-202.
[11] 刘遵义,陈锡康,杨翠红,等.非竞争型投入占用产出模型及其应用——中美贸易顺差透视[J].中国社会科学,2007(5):91-103+206-207.
[12] 戴枫,陈百助.全球价值链分工视角下中美贸易对美国就业的影响:基于WIOT的结构性分解[J].国际贸易问题,2016(10):62-73.
[13] 金英姬,张中元.中美贸易逆差真的导致美国就业下降吗?——兼论特朗普“贸易再平衡促进就业”的困境[J].上海经济研究,2018(6):91-102.
[14] 王威.美国对华“双反”调查发展态势、成因与应对[J].国际经济合作,2018(7):40-46.
[15] 陈继勇.中美贸易战的背景、原因、本质及中国对策[J].武汉大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2018,71(5):72-81.
[16] 尹秀.贸易逆差对美国就业影响的实证研究[D].济南:山东大学,2018.
[17] 庞皓.计量经济学[M].北京:科学出版社,2014.
[18] 张晓峒.计量经济学基础[M].天津:南开大学出版社,2014.