基于主成分分析的抽蓄电站引水斜洞开挖工期预测模型
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摘要
引水隧洞开挖作为水电工程施工的重要工序,其工期的确定具有很强随机性、模糊性和不确定性。通过分析影响斜洞开挖工期的因素,确定主要影响因子,在此基础上建立了基于主成分分析的引水斜洞开挖工期多元线性回归预测模型。经工程实例验证,并将预测值与实际值比较表明,预测模型对案例工序工期预测精确,具有较好的适应性和适用性。
The construction duration is the base of the progress control of large-scale projects. The accuracy of the duration prediction directly affects the control of the whole construction progress. As an important part of the construction process of hydropower projects,the duration of the diversion tunnel excavation is characterized by strong randomness,ambiguity and uncertainty. Thus,factors that could affect the duration of the tunnel excavation are analyzed and the main influencing factors are determined. A multiple linear regression prediction model is developed based on the principal component analysis( PCA) to predict the tunnel excavation duration. Practical engineering examples are used to verify the proposed model. The results show that the proposed model could accurately predict the construction duration,and also of good adaptability and applicability.
The construction duration is the base of the progress control of large-scale projects. The accuracy of the duration prediction directly affects the control of the whole construction progress. As an important part of the construction process of hydropower projects,the duration of the diversion tunnel excavation is characterized by strong randomness,ambiguity and uncertainty. Thus,factors that could affect the duration of the tunnel excavation are analyzed and the main influencing factors are determined. A multiple linear regression prediction model is developed based on the principal component analysis( PCA) to predict the tunnel excavation duration. Practical engineering examples are used to verify the proposed model. The results show that the proposed model could accurately predict the construction duration,and also of good adaptability and applicability.
引文
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[2]王中和.关于铁路工程定额测定工作的思考[J].铁路工程造价管理,2007,22(5):1-3,8
[3]李万庆,岳丽飞,孟文清,等.气膜薄壳钢筋混凝土穹顶储仓的施工工期预测研究[J].价值工程,2015(28):52-54
[4]郭镇宁.工程网络计划的工期优化[J].工程建设,2006,38(3):1-4
[5]李平,顾新一.PERT网络工期风险计算方法的研究[J].统计与决策,2004(5):16-17
[6]王仁超,周洪利.导流隧洞施工工期的模糊类比预测与评价方法研究[J].长江科学院院报,2013,30(1):80-85
[7]张绍伶.基于熵权法的水利工程工期方案评价研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2014