基于灰色聚类方法的关键链项目工期风险评估
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摘要
工期不确定以及资源冲突等问题的存在使得项目进度管理更加复杂。为有效地识别工期风险,本文在灰色关键链法的基础上,首先运用一致指数对工序工期进行灰色估计,并综合考虑资源紧张度、工序复杂度、开工柔性、风险偏好、环境不确定性5个影响项目进度的不确定性因素。然后,基于三角白化权函数的灰色聚类评估模型确定综合聚类系数,从而进行工期风险评估。最后通过算例分析,快速识别工期风险大的工序,降低工期延误风险,验证所提方法的有效性和实用性。
Duration uncertainty, resource conflict and other issues make project schedule management more complex. In order to effectively identify the duration risk, based on the gray critical chain method, the consistency index is used to make a gray estimation of the duration and the uncertainty factors such as resource stress, process complexity, work flexibility,risk preference and environmental uncertainty are fully considered. Then the duration risk evaluation is carried out by using the clustering coefficient determined based on the gray clustering evaluation model of the triangular whitening weight function. Finally, it is applied into a practical case to identify the processes with high duration risk and reduce the delay risk to prove the effectiveness and practicability of proposed method.
Duration uncertainty, resource conflict and other issues make project schedule management more complex. In order to effectively identify the duration risk, based on the gray critical chain method, the consistency index is used to make a gray estimation of the duration and the uncertainty factors such as resource stress, process complexity, work flexibility,risk preference and environmental uncertainty are fully considered. Then the duration risk evaluation is carried out by using the clustering coefficient determined based on the gray clustering evaluation model of the triangular whitening weight function. Finally, it is applied into a practical case to identify the processes with high duration risk and reduce the delay risk to prove the effectiveness and practicability of proposed method.
引文
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[19]杨雪松,胡昊.基于关键链方法的多项目管理[J].工业工程与管理,2005,10(2):48-52.YANG Xuesong,HU Hao.Mult-project management based on critical chain method[J].Industrial Engineering and Management,2005,10(2):48-52.
[20]李芳健,王家骥,王培席,等.我国全科医学教育的PEST分析及策略选择[J].中国全科医学,2013,16(1):69-71.LI Fangjian,WANG Jiaji,WANG Peixi,et al.PEST analysis and strategy selection of general practice education in china[J].Chinese General Practice,2013,16(1):69-71.
[2]HU X,CUI N,Demeulemeester E,et al.Incorporation of activity sensitivity measures into buffer management to manage project schedule risk[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2015,249(2):717-727.
[3]孟丽丽,路春光,朱昌健,等.项目管理技术在钢铁企业大修项目中的应用案例[J].工业工程,2010,13(3):89-94.MENG Lili,LU Chunguang,ZHU Changjian,et al.Application of project management to equipment overhaul in a steel enterprise[J].Industrial Engineering Journal,2010,13(3):89-94.
[4]慕光宇,李莉,张文孝,等.基于CPM和挣值法的船舶建造项目进度控制的研究[J].科技管理研究,2011,31(7):206-208.MU Guangyu,LI Li,ZHANG Wenxiao,et al.Research on the progress management in shipbuilding project based on CPM and earned value method[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2011,31(7):206-208.
[5]刘庆.计划评审技术在工程项目管理中的应用[J].工程建设与设计,2005(2):61-62.LIU Qing.Application of program evaluation review technique on project management of engineering[J].Construction&Design for Project,2005(2):61-62.
[6]GOLDRATT E M.Critical chain[M].Great Barrington:The North River Press,1997:110-121.
[7]闫文周,任格叶.关键链的随机性及其在建筑工程项目进度中的应用[J].工业工程,2014,17(6):111-114.YAN Wenzhou,REN Geye.The randomness of the critical chain and its application in the progress of construction project[J].Industrial Engineering Journal,2014,17(6):111-114.
[8]UMBLE M,UMBLE E J.Utilizing buffer management to improve performance in a health care environment[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2006,174(2):1060-1075.
[9]KUO T C,CHANG S H,HUANG S N.Due-date performance improvement using TOC’s aggregated time buffer method at a wafer fabrication factory[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2009,36(2):1783-1792.
[10]LONG L D,OHSATO A.Fuzzy critical chain method for project scheduling under resource constraints and uncertainty[J].International Journal of Project Management,2008,26(6):688-698.
[11]高朋,冯俊文.基于灰色关键链的项目进度管理方法及应用[J].工业工程与管理,2009,14(3):55-59.GAO Peng,FENG Junwen.A grey critical chain approach for schedule management and its application[J].Industrial Engineering and Management,2009,14(3):55-59.
[12]刘思峰,方志耕,杨英杰.两阶段灰色综合测度决策模型与三角白化权函数的改进[J].控制与决策,2014,29(7):1232-1238.LIU Sifeng,FANG Zhigeng,YANG Yingjie.Two stages decision model with grey synthetic measure and a betterment of triangular whitenization weight function[J].Control and Decision,2014,29(7):1232-1238.
[13]刘思峰,党耀国,方志耕.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].3版.北京:科学出版社,2007:99.
[14]刘思峰,谢乃明.基于改进三角白化权函数的灰评估新方法[J].系统工程学报,2011,26(2):244-250.LIU Sifeng,XIE Naiming.New grey evaluation method based on reformative triangular whitenization weight function[J].Journal of Systems Engineering,2011,26(2):244-250.
[15]王凯,袁永博,丁乐.基于模糊关键链法工程项目缓冲区的确定[J].建筑经济,2009(s1):76-79.WANG Kai,YUAN Yongbo,DING Le.Determination of project project buffer based on fuzzy critical chain method[J].Construction Economy,2009(s1):76-79.
[16]MA G,WANG A,LI N,et al.Improved critical chain project management framework for scheduling construction projects[J].Journal of Construction Engineering&Management,2014,140(12):04014055-1-04014055-15.
[17]TUKEL O I,ROM W O,EKSIOGLU S D.An investigation of buffer sizing techniques in critical chain scheduling[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2006,172(2):401-416.
[18]杨立熙,李世其,黄夏宝,等.属性相关的关键链计划缓冲设置方法[J].工业工程与管理,2009,14(1):11-14.YANG Lixi,LI Shiqi,HUANG Xiabao,et al.A buffer sizing approach in critical chain scheduling with attributes dependent[J].Industrial Engineering and Management,2009,14(1):11-14.
[19]杨雪松,胡昊.基于关键链方法的多项目管理[J].工业工程与管理,2005,10(2):48-52.YANG Xuesong,HU Hao.Mult-project management based on critical chain method[J].Industrial Engineering and Management,2005,10(2):48-52.
[20]李芳健,王家骥,王培席,等.我国全科医学教育的PEST分析及策略选择[J].中国全科医学,2013,16(1):69-71.LI Fangjian,WANG Jiaji,WANG Peixi,et al.PEST analysis and strategy selection of general practice education in china[J].Chinese General Practice,2013,16(1):69-71.