基于Shapley值-仿真技术的工序工期预测
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摘要
针对传统工期预测方法中对工序工期影响因素间相关性考虑不足的缺陷,利用随机数仿真工序工期影响因素的不确定性和Shapley值函数计算多因素间相关性的原理,将仿真技术和Shapley值函数相结合,计算出影响因素对工期的综合影响系数。并且根据每道工序工程量与单位时间完成工程量的比值准确计算出每道工序的理想化工期。在此基础上利用工期综合影响系数对其进行调整,建立一种新的工期预测模型。最后,以工程实例对工期预测模型进行验证,并建立4DBIM进度模型对施工进度进行三维可视化模拟对比,结果表明,文中方法对施工工期的预测效果精确,具有较好的实际指导意义。
Aiming at the defects that insufficient consideration of the correlation between the factors affecting the process duration in the traditional forecasting method,we use the uncertainty of the factors affecting random number simulated duration and the correlation between multiple factors of Shapley value function calculation,combine the simulation technique and Shapley function and then worke out the comprehensive influencing coefficiency of the influencing factor on the time limit. In addition,the ideal period for each process is calculated according to the ratio of the amount of each working procedure and the amount of unit time. Based on this,a new model for predicting the duration is established by using the comprehensive effect coefficient of the time limit to adjust it.Finally,the engineering projects are used to verify this model,and a 4D BIM progress model is established to simulate the construction progress. The results show that the proposed method has obvious forecast effect on the construction progress,and has better practical guiding significance.
Aiming at the defects that insufficient consideration of the correlation between the factors affecting the process duration in the traditional forecasting method,we use the uncertainty of the factors affecting random number simulated duration and the correlation between multiple factors of Shapley value function calculation,combine the simulation technique and Shapley function and then worke out the comprehensive influencing coefficiency of the influencing factor on the time limit. In addition,the ideal period for each process is calculated according to the ratio of the amount of each working procedure and the amount of unit time. Based on this,a new model for predicting the duration is established by using the comprehensive effect coefficient of the time limit to adjust it.Finally,the engineering projects are used to verify this model,and a 4D BIM progress model is established to simulate the construction progress. The results show that the proposed method has obvious forecast effect on the construction progress,and has better practical guiding significance.
引文
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[3]Salem O,Solomon J,Genaidy A,et al.Site implementation and assessment of lean con struction techniques[J].Lean Construction Journal,2005,2(2):1-21.
[4]孟文清,张立宁,李万庆.基于模糊网络的工程项目工期风险评估研究[J].河北建筑科技学院学报,2005,22(2):73-75.
[5]刘英杰.灰色系统理论在工程进度预测中的应用[J].东北水利水电,2006,24(4):45-47.
[6]贾铭钰,杨秀芸,朱美洁,等.基于挣得进度的灰色Verhulst模型对工程工期的动态预测[J].北京城市学院学报,2013,(5):32-38.
[7]Wang W C,Demsetz L A.Application example for evaluating networks considering correlation[J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,2000,126(6):467-474.
[8]李军辉,张云波,祁神军,等.基于风险相关性和随机性的工序工期预测模型[J].武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工程版),2010,32(6):1018-1021.
[9]李林,李树丞,王道平.基于风险分析的项目工期的估算方法研究[J].系统工程,2001,19(5):77-81.
[10]阮爱清,刘思峰,方志耕.基于不确定性的shapley值模型及其风险研究[J].统计与决策,2009,(20):15-17.
[11]Stephen A Jones.Introduction to BIM[EB/OL].[2009-01-21].http://bimhalcrow.wordpress.Com/2009/01/21/megraw-hill-construction-bim-smartmarkte-report/.
[12]王友群.BIM技术在工程项目三大目标管理中的应用[D].重庆:重庆大学,2012.
[2]Ahuja H N,Nandakumar V.Simulation model to forecast project completion time[J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,1985,111(4):325-342.
[3]Salem O,Solomon J,Genaidy A,et al.Site implementation and assessment of lean con struction techniques[J].Lean Construction Journal,2005,2(2):1-21.
[4]孟文清,张立宁,李万庆.基于模糊网络的工程项目工期风险评估研究[J].河北建筑科技学院学报,2005,22(2):73-75.
[5]刘英杰.灰色系统理论在工程进度预测中的应用[J].东北水利水电,2006,24(4):45-47.
[6]贾铭钰,杨秀芸,朱美洁,等.基于挣得进度的灰色Verhulst模型对工程工期的动态预测[J].北京城市学院学报,2013,(5):32-38.
[7]Wang W C,Demsetz L A.Application example for evaluating networks considering correlation[J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,2000,126(6):467-474.
[8]李军辉,张云波,祁神军,等.基于风险相关性和随机性的工序工期预测模型[J].武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工程版),2010,32(6):1018-1021.
[9]李林,李树丞,王道平.基于风险分析的项目工期的估算方法研究[J].系统工程,2001,19(5):77-81.
[10]阮爱清,刘思峰,方志耕.基于不确定性的shapley值模型及其风险研究[J].统计与决策,2009,(20):15-17.
[11]Stephen A Jones.Introduction to BIM[EB/OL].[2009-01-21].http://bimhalcrow.wordpress.Com/2009/01/21/megraw-hill-construction-bim-smartmarkte-report/.
[12]王友群.BIM技术在工程项目三大目标管理中的应用[D].重庆:重庆大学,2012.