基于CA-Markov模型的鄱阳湖区土地利用变化模拟研究
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摘要
以鄱阳湖区为研究区,采用Logistic回归测度不同影响因子与各地类之间的驱动作用,结合Markov预测构建适用于湖区土地利用变化模拟的元胞自动机模型,对模型精度进行检验并对湖区未来土地利用发展趋势进行模拟预测。结果表明:(1)2000~2010年湖区各地类变化幅度呈显著提升趋势,草地是最活跃地类,耕地面积大幅下降,城镇化扩张稳定;(2)不同影响因子对各地类的驱动作用方向与解释能力各不相同,整体解释效果良好,各个ROC检验值均超过了0.81;(3)CA-Markov模型整体Kappa系数>0.85,点对点精度>75%,模拟结果具有较高精度,其中模型对于林地、耕地及水域变化的模拟效果最优;(4)2010~2025年湖区各地类变化幅度有所扩大,但其变化活跃程度趋向稳定;(5)2010~2025年耕地、林地面积减少主要是城市建设用地的侵占所致,其它类型转变为居民用地的单向变化趋势显著,湖区城镇化进程大幅加速,主要集中在昌九一体化城市群区域;(6)2010~2025年草地、未利用土地面积增加主要集中在湖区各区县城镇边缘地带,城镇化进程中绿地保护措施效果明显,但仍容易造成耕地、林地抛荒等状况。
Taking Poyang Lake region as an example,we applied the Logistic regression to calculate the driving effects between various factors and land-use types. A Cellular Automata model combining the Markov method was built to simulate the land-use change in the Poyang Lake region. We completed the precision tests of the proposed model and predicted the developing trends of the land-use change in the region. The results show that: 1) The variation of land use types in Poyang Lake region had an obvious ascending trend from 2000 to 2010. Grassland was the most active land-use type. The area of cultivated land had sharply declined,and the expansion of the residential land kept stable. 2) The driving directions and the explanatory abilities of different factors had significant differences on influencing land-use change. The overall explanatory effect was good and all the ROC values were higher than 0. 81. 3) The overall Kappa index for the proposed CA-Markov model was higher than 0.85 and the overall precision index was over 75%. It indicated that the model had a high-precision simulation effect and had a good performance in simulating the changes of woodland,cultivated land and water. 4) The variations of the land-use types in Poyang Lake region increased from 2010 to 2025,whereas their active levels had a stable trend. 5) The lost area of cultivated land and woodland was mainly caused by the gain area of the residential land from 2010 to 2025,the land-use change pattern performed a significant one-way transmission trend from other land-use types to the residential land. The regional urbanization accelerated obviously and urban expansion mainly distributed in the Nanchang-Jiujiang metropolitan area. 6) The lost area of grassland and the unused land mainly distributed in the boundary areas of the counties from 2010 to 2025. The regional urbanization had a positive effect on grassland protection,however,it is easy to cause the inefficient use of cultivated land and the woodland.
Taking Poyang Lake region as an example,we applied the Logistic regression to calculate the driving effects between various factors and land-use types. A Cellular Automata model combining the Markov method was built to simulate the land-use change in the Poyang Lake region. We completed the precision tests of the proposed model and predicted the developing trends of the land-use change in the region. The results show that: 1) The variation of land use types in Poyang Lake region had an obvious ascending trend from 2000 to 2010. Grassland was the most active land-use type. The area of cultivated land had sharply declined,and the expansion of the residential land kept stable. 2) The driving directions and the explanatory abilities of different factors had significant differences on influencing land-use change. The overall explanatory effect was good and all the ROC values were higher than 0. 81. 3) The overall Kappa index for the proposed CA-Markov model was higher than 0.85 and the overall precision index was over 75%. It indicated that the model had a high-precision simulation effect and had a good performance in simulating the changes of woodland,cultivated land and water. 4) The variations of the land-use types in Poyang Lake region increased from 2010 to 2025,whereas their active levels had a stable trend. 5) The lost area of cultivated land and woodland was mainly caused by the gain area of the residential land from 2010 to 2025,the land-use change pattern performed a significant one-way transmission trend from other land-use types to the residential land. The regional urbanization accelerated obviously and urban expansion mainly distributed in the Nanchang-Jiujiang metropolitan area. 6) The lost area of grassland and the unused land mainly distributed in the boundary areas of the counties from 2010 to 2025. The regional urbanization had a positive effect on grassland protection,however,it is easy to cause the inefficient use of cultivated land and the woodland.
引文
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