虚拟经济与货币供给的交互影响——基于货币“脱实向虚”与经济“虚实背离”的视角
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摘要
随着经济虚拟化程度不断提高,传统的货币理论已不能对超额货币增长做出合理解释。构建虚拟经济和货币供给交互影响作用机制的整体框架,并通过数理分析及向量自回归模型来推导、检验货币"脱实向虚"与经济"虚实分离"的关系。研究表明,货币"脱实向虚"会加剧经济"虚实背离",经济"虚实背离"又反过来强化货币"脱实向虚";货币"脱实向虚"对经济"虚实背离"的作用力度大于其反向作用力度;利率对经济"虚实背离"的正向影响大于对货币"脱实向虚"的负向影响。要有效改善经济的"虚实背离",需着力控制货币的"脱实向虚",分别对虚拟经济部门和实体经济采取有差别的利率政策,从而实现货币供给与经济发展的宏观均衡。
With increasing economic virtualization,the traditional monetary theory can no longer adequately explain excessive monetary growth.This study constructs a comprehensive framework from the interaction mechanisms of the virtual economy and money supply and uses mathematical analysis and vector autoregression models to derive and test the relationship between "diversion away from the real and toward the virtual economy" and "real and virtual economic divergence." The research shows that monetary "diversion away from the real and toward the virtual economy" exacerbates "real and virtual economic divergence." Furthermore,"real and virtual economic divergence" strengthens monetary "diversion away from the real and toward the virtual economy." The degree of influence of monetary "diversion away from the real and toward the virtual economy" on "real and virtual economic divergence" is larger than the influence of "real and virtual economic divergence" on monetary "diversion away from the real and toward the virtual economy." The positive effect of interest rates on "real and virtual economic divergence" is larger than their negative influence on "diversion away from the real and toward the virtual economy." In order to effectively improve the problem of "real and virtual economic divergence," it is necessary to control monetary "diversion away from the real and toward the virtual economy," and to adopt different interest policies to address virtual and real economic sectors,thereby achieving macroeconomic equilibrium in the money supply and economic development.
With increasing economic virtualization,the traditional monetary theory can no longer adequately explain excessive monetary growth.This study constructs a comprehensive framework from the interaction mechanisms of the virtual economy and money supply and uses mathematical analysis and vector autoregression models to derive and test the relationship between "diversion away from the real and toward the virtual economy" and "real and virtual economic divergence." The research shows that monetary "diversion away from the real and toward the virtual economy" exacerbates "real and virtual economic divergence." Furthermore,"real and virtual economic divergence" strengthens monetary "diversion away from the real and toward the virtual economy." The degree of influence of monetary "diversion away from the real and toward the virtual economy" on "real and virtual economic divergence" is larger than the influence of "real and virtual economic divergence" on monetary "diversion away from the real and toward the virtual economy." The positive effect of interest rates on "real and virtual economic divergence" is larger than their negative influence on "diversion away from the real and toward the virtual economy." In order to effectively improve the problem of "real and virtual economic divergence," it is necessary to control monetary "diversion away from the real and toward the virtual economy," and to adopt different interest policies to address virtual and real economic sectors,thereby achieving macroeconomic equilibrium in the money supply and economic development.
引文
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[24] 马方方,高明宇.中国超额货币供给现象研究—基于修正的交易方程式的实证分析[J].武汉金融,2018(8).
[2] Khan,R.E.A.,and A.R.Gill,2013.Velocity of Money in Pakistan:Time Series Analysis.Actual Problems of Economics,Vol.140,No.2:396-403.
[3] 王勇.中国金融发展对货币流通速度影响研究——基于银行及非银行金融部门的实证分析[J].金融经济学研究,2015(5).
[4] Binswanger M.,2004.The Finance Processona Macroeconomic Level from a Flow Perspective:A New Interpretation of Hoarding.International Review of Financial Analysis,Vol.6,No.2:107-131.
[5] 伍志文.“中国之谜”:理论及基于中国的经验分析[J].财经研究,2003(1).
[6] 刘徳斌.中国国际收支与流动性过剩联动机制分析[D].复旦大学硕士论文,2008.
[7] 左昊华,何小锋.中国资本市场吸收实体经济通胀能力研究[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2009(6).
[8] 鞠方,周建军.房地产泡沫成因新解:房地产市场货币积聚假说[J].求索,2008(4).
[9] 黄建华,左昊华.房地产交易对实体经济通胀吸收作用的实证研究[J].统计与决策,2012(5).
[10] 李世美,韩庆兰,曾昭志.房地产价格的货币沉淀效应研究[J].管理评论,2012(4).
[11] 刘骏民,段彦飞.虚拟经济的流动性储备池功能及其估测[J].开放导报,2009(3).
[12] 赵留彦,赵岩,陈瑛.金融交易与货币流通速度的波动[J].国际金融研究,2013(4).
[13] 鲁晓琳,董志.经济虚拟化过程中货币供给、经济增长与通货膨胀关系的发展演变——基于美国和中国数据的对比分析[J].金融与经济,2017(3).
[14] 刘晓欣,梁志杰.经济虚拟化降低了货币流通速度吗?[J].经济与管理研究,2018(4).
[15] Joti Mangat,2012.Global finance:Running on empty.Euromoney,Vol.42:513-514.
[16] Cukierman,Alex,2017.Money growth and inflation:Policy lessons from a comparison of the US since 2008 with hyperinflation Germany in the 1920s.Economics Letters,Vol.154:109-112.
[17] Negro,Marco Del,and C.Otrok,2005.99 Luftballons:Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S.states.Social Science Electronic Publishing,Vol.54,No.7:1962-1985.
[18] Elbourne,Adam,2008.The UK housing market and the monetary policy transmission mechanism:An SVAR approach.Journal of Housing Economics,Vol.17,No.1:65-87.
[19] 李健,邓瑛.推动房价上涨的货币因素研究——基于美国、日本、中国泡沫积聚时期的实证比较分析[J].金融研究,2011(6).
[20] 张大凯,来志勤.货币供应量对股票价格的影响研究——一个基于VAR模型的实证分析[J].投资研究,2012(3).
[21] 刘金全,王译兴,陈德凯.货币供给对股票价格影响机制的时变特征研究[J].价格理论与实践,2017(5).
[22] 沈虹,何建敏,胡小平,赵伟雄.多尺度GARCH模型研究货币增长对期货价格波动的影响[J].管理学报,2010(2).
[23] 何问陶,王成进.货币供给、虚拟经济与通货膨胀—对通胀决定因素中货币供给与虚拟经济影响的再认识[J].财经研究,2008(10).
[24] 马方方,高明宇.中国超额货币供给现象研究—基于修正的交易方程式的实证分析[J].武汉金融,2018(8).