基于改进TOPSIS多目标水库防洪调度方案决策
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摘要
针对目前多目标水库防洪调度方案决策所采用的方法存在主观性强,以及传统TOPSIS法受指标相关性影响的缺点,介绍了改进的TOPSIS法的决策模型。以洪家渡水库为例,选取能够反映不同调洪方案特性的5个指标,使用主成分分析法从这些指标中提取线性无关的主成分,以这些主成分得分代替原指标,最后以这些新的指标为依据,使用加权TOPSIS法对各个调洪方案进行排序与决策。把计算出的结果同灰色优选法和属性识别法的计算结果进行比较,结果显示三种方法的计算结果基本一致,说明该方法可运用于多目标水库防洪调度方案的决策,且适用性强。
Aiming at the shortcomings of strong subjectivity existed in the current method used in the decision-making of flood control scheme of multipurpose reservoir and the shortcomings that the original TOPSIS method affected by the correlation of indicators,it introduced the decision model of improved TOPSIS method.In the case of Hongjiadu Reservoir,selecting five evaluation indexes that were able to reflect the different characteristics of flood control scheme,principal component analysis was used to extract linear independent principal components from these evaluation indexes and then replacing the old evaluation indexes by principal components.Finally based on these new evaluation indexes,it used the weighted TOPSIS method for each flood control scheme to sort and decisions.Comparing the results calculated with the calculated results of grey optimization method and the calculated results of attribute recognition method,the comparison result shows that the calculated results of the three methods are basically the same,which shows that the method can be applied to the decision-making of flood control scheme of multipurpose reservoir and the applicability is strong.
Aiming at the shortcomings of strong subjectivity existed in the current method used in the decision-making of flood control scheme of multipurpose reservoir and the shortcomings that the original TOPSIS method affected by the correlation of indicators,it introduced the decision model of improved TOPSIS method.In the case of Hongjiadu Reservoir,selecting five evaluation indexes that were able to reflect the different characteristics of flood control scheme,principal component analysis was used to extract linear independent principal components from these evaluation indexes and then replacing the old evaluation indexes by principal components.Finally based on these new evaluation indexes,it used the weighted TOPSIS method for each flood control scheme to sort and decisions.Comparing the results calculated with the calculated results of grey optimization method and the calculated results of attribute recognition method,the comparison result shows that the calculated results of the three methods are basically the same,which shows that the method can be applied to the decision-making of flood control scheme of multipurpose reservoir and the applicability is strong.
引文
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[2]陈守煜.防洪调度多目标决策理论与模型[J].中国工程科学,2000,2(2):47-52.
[3]李继伟,纪昌明,张新明,等.基于改进TOPSIS的水库水沙联合调度方案评价[J].中国农村水利水电,2013(10):42-45.
[4]王先甲,汪磊.基于马氏距离的改进型TOPSIS在供应商选择中的应用[J].控制与决策,2012,27(10):1566-1570.
[5]严春香,方亚,陈腊运,等.主成分分析应用于医院综合效益的评价[J].中国医院统计,2002,9(4):211-214.
[6]孙振球.医学统计学[M].北京:人民卫生出版社,2005:424.
[7]陈欢,叶少有.基于属性识别模型的节水灌溉方案优选[J].合肥工业大学学报,2009,32(12):1893-1895.
[8]陈胜可.SPSS统计分析从入门到精通[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2010:372-375.
[9]叶宗裕.关于多指标综合评价中指标正向化和无量纲化方法的选择[J].浙江统计,2003(4):24-25.
[10]李一萍.用主成分分析法综合评价医院工作质量[J].医院管理论坛,2008,25(6):34-36.
[11]龙艳红,肖飞鹏,左江林.基于TOPSIS的农村电网现代化综合评价研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2012(5):83-84,89.
[12]邓聚龙.灰理论基础[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2002:122-202.