一种智能变电站保护装置寿命预测方法
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摘要
继电保护设备剩余有效寿命预测是智能变电站二次设备状态检修的技术关键。文中提出了一种基于马尔科夫链的智能变电站继电保护设备寿命预测方法,该方法基于马尔科夫链,利用设备在线监测信息和历史运行数据获得其状态分布向量以及状态转移矩阵,进而根据可靠性原理预测其剩余有效寿命。算例分析结果表明该方法可以对保护装置未来运行状态分布和剩余寿命进行有效预测,其预测结果可以为运行人员提供参考。目前该方法已应用在实际智能变电站的二次设备在线监测系统中,有助于提高智能变电站的安全运行水平。
The remaining effective life prediction of the relay protection equipment is the key technology of the secondary equipment condition maintenance of the intelligent substation. A method for predicting the life of relay protection equipment based on the Markov chain is proposed in this paper. Based on the Markov chain,the state distribution vector and the state transition matrix are obtained by using the equipment on-line monitoring information and historical operation data,and then,its remaining effective life is predicted based on reliability principle. The results of numerical examples show that the proposed method can effectively predict the future operation state distribution and residual life of the protection device,and the prediction results can provide reference for the operation personnel. At present,this method has been applied in the on-line monitoring system of the intelligent substation secondary equipment,which can help to improve the stability of the intelligent substation.
The remaining effective life prediction of the relay protection equipment is the key technology of the secondary equipment condition maintenance of the intelligent substation. A method for predicting the life of relay protection equipment based on the Markov chain is proposed in this paper. Based on the Markov chain,the state distribution vector and the state transition matrix are obtained by using the equipment on-line monitoring information and historical operation data,and then,its remaining effective life is predicted based on reliability principle. The results of numerical examples show that the proposed method can effectively predict the future operation state distribution and residual life of the protection device,and the prediction results can provide reference for the operation personnel. At present,this method has been applied in the on-line monitoring system of the intelligent substation secondary equipment,which can help to improve the stability of the intelligent substation.
引文
[1]何旭.智能变电站继电保护可靠性的评估方法研究[D].上海:上海交通大学硕士学位论文,2015.He Xu.Research on reliability evaluation method for relay protections in smart substation[D].Shanghai:Shanghai Jiao Tong University,2015.
[2]韩雪.关于继电保护装置的状态检修探讨[J].中国新技术新产品,2013,(5):118.Han Xue.Discussion on state maintenance of relay protection device[J].China New Technologies and Products,2013,(5):118.
[3]徐志超,李晓明,杨玲君.基于全寿命周期成本的继电保护装置退出时间评估[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(21):151-155.Xu Zhichao,Li Xiaoming,Yang Lingjun.Evaluation for exit time of relay protection devices based on life cycle cost[J].Automation of Electric power systems,2013,37(21):151-155.
[4]齐广峰,吕军锋.基于Weibull分布的设备寿命损耗预测[J].西安文理学院学报(自然科学报),2009,12(4):62-64.Qi Guangfeng,Lv Junfeng.The forecast of equipment life loss based on Weibull distribution[J].Journal of Xi’an University of Arts&Science(Natural Science Edition,2009,12(4):62-64.
[5]邓旭阳,陈志光,林燕贞,等.基于优化的LS-SVR的继电保护设备故障率预测模型[J].电网与清洁能源,2016,32(3):25-33,39.Deng Xuyang,Chen Zhiguang,Lin Yanzhen,et al.Failure rate prediction model of relay protection equipment based on optimized LSSVR[J].Power System and Clean Energy,2016,32(3):25-33,39.
[6]周雄兵.温度试验对电子元器件的性能影响分析[J].信息通信,2016,(11):257-258.Zhou Xiongbing.Analysis of the effect of temperature test on the performance of electronic Components[J].Information&Communications,2016,(11):257-258.
[7]杨红英,张勇,张银玲.常用电子元器件的性能和特征[J].科技资讯,2010,(5):62-64.Yang Hongying,Zhang Yong,Zhang Yinling.Performance and characteristics of commonly used electronic components[J].Science&Technology Information,2010,(5):62-64.
[8]温培和.常用电子元器件的性能分析[J].价值工程,2010,(36):91.Wen Peihe.Performance analysis of commonly used electronic components[J].Value Engineering,2010,(36):91.
[9]工则.马尔科夫转移矩阵法[J].科技咨询导报,2005,(2):60.Gong Ze.Markov transfer matrix method[J].Science and Technology Consulting Herald,2005,(2):60.
[10]原媛,卓东风.隐半马尔科夫模型在剩余寿命预测中的应用[J].计算机技术与发展,2014,24(1):184-187,191.Yuan Yuan,Zhuo Dongfeng.Application of hidden Semi-Markov model in prediction of residual life[J].Computer Technology and Development,2014,24(1):184-187,191.
[11]薛安成,罗麟,景琦,等.基于Markov模型的高压输电线继电保护装置风险评估[J].电网技术,2014,38(7):1995-2000.Xue Ancheng,Luo Lin,Jing Qi,et al.Research on Markov model based risk assessment of protective relaying for high voltage transmission line[J].Power System Technology,2014,38(7):1995-2000.
[12]易永辉.继电保护装置寿命分析及寿命影响机理研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2013,41(2):79-83.Yi Yonghui.Research of relay protection device’s life and relative effect mechanism[J].Power System Protection and Control,2013,41(2):79-83.
[13]王睿琛,薛安成,毕天姝,等.继电保护装置时变失效率估算及其区域性差异分析[J].电力系统自动化,2012,36(5):11-15,23.Wang Ruichen,Xue Ancheng,Bi Tianshu,et al.Time-varying failure rate estimation of relay protection devices and their regional differences analysis[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2012,36(5):11-15,23.
[14]周玉辉,康锐.基于退化失效模型的旋转机械寿命预测方法[J].核科学与工程,2009,29(2):146-151.Zhou Yuhui,Kangrui.Degradation model and application in life prediction of rotating-mechanism[J].Chinese Journal of Nuclear Science and Engineering,2009,29(2):146-151.
[15]左芳君.机械结构的疲劳寿命预测与可靠性方法研究[D].成都:电子科技大学博士学位论文,2016.Zuo Fangjun.Research on methods for reliability analysis and fatigue life prediction for mechanical structure[D].Chengdu:University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,2016.
[16]DL/T 587-2007,微机继电保护装置运行管理规程[S].
[2]韩雪.关于继电保护装置的状态检修探讨[J].中国新技术新产品,2013,(5):118.Han Xue.Discussion on state maintenance of relay protection device[J].China New Technologies and Products,2013,(5):118.
[3]徐志超,李晓明,杨玲君.基于全寿命周期成本的继电保护装置退出时间评估[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(21):151-155.Xu Zhichao,Li Xiaoming,Yang Lingjun.Evaluation for exit time of relay protection devices based on life cycle cost[J].Automation of Electric power systems,2013,37(21):151-155.
[4]齐广峰,吕军锋.基于Weibull分布的设备寿命损耗预测[J].西安文理学院学报(自然科学报),2009,12(4):62-64.Qi Guangfeng,Lv Junfeng.The forecast of equipment life loss based on Weibull distribution[J].Journal of Xi’an University of Arts&Science(Natural Science Edition,2009,12(4):62-64.
[5]邓旭阳,陈志光,林燕贞,等.基于优化的LS-SVR的继电保护设备故障率预测模型[J].电网与清洁能源,2016,32(3):25-33,39.Deng Xuyang,Chen Zhiguang,Lin Yanzhen,et al.Failure rate prediction model of relay protection equipment based on optimized LSSVR[J].Power System and Clean Energy,2016,32(3):25-33,39.
[6]周雄兵.温度试验对电子元器件的性能影响分析[J].信息通信,2016,(11):257-258.Zhou Xiongbing.Analysis of the effect of temperature test on the performance of electronic Components[J].Information&Communications,2016,(11):257-258.
[7]杨红英,张勇,张银玲.常用电子元器件的性能和特征[J].科技资讯,2010,(5):62-64.Yang Hongying,Zhang Yong,Zhang Yinling.Performance and characteristics of commonly used electronic components[J].Science&Technology Information,2010,(5):62-64.
[8]温培和.常用电子元器件的性能分析[J].价值工程,2010,(36):91.Wen Peihe.Performance analysis of commonly used electronic components[J].Value Engineering,2010,(36):91.
[9]工则.马尔科夫转移矩阵法[J].科技咨询导报,2005,(2):60.Gong Ze.Markov transfer matrix method[J].Science and Technology Consulting Herald,2005,(2):60.
[10]原媛,卓东风.隐半马尔科夫模型在剩余寿命预测中的应用[J].计算机技术与发展,2014,24(1):184-187,191.Yuan Yuan,Zhuo Dongfeng.Application of hidden Semi-Markov model in prediction of residual life[J].Computer Technology and Development,2014,24(1):184-187,191.
[11]薛安成,罗麟,景琦,等.基于Markov模型的高压输电线继电保护装置风险评估[J].电网技术,2014,38(7):1995-2000.Xue Ancheng,Luo Lin,Jing Qi,et al.Research on Markov model based risk assessment of protective relaying for high voltage transmission line[J].Power System Technology,2014,38(7):1995-2000.
[12]易永辉.继电保护装置寿命分析及寿命影响机理研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2013,41(2):79-83.Yi Yonghui.Research of relay protection device’s life and relative effect mechanism[J].Power System Protection and Control,2013,41(2):79-83.
[13]王睿琛,薛安成,毕天姝,等.继电保护装置时变失效率估算及其区域性差异分析[J].电力系统自动化,2012,36(5):11-15,23.Wang Ruichen,Xue Ancheng,Bi Tianshu,et al.Time-varying failure rate estimation of relay protection devices and their regional differences analysis[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2012,36(5):11-15,23.
[14]周玉辉,康锐.基于退化失效模型的旋转机械寿命预测方法[J].核科学与工程,2009,29(2):146-151.Zhou Yuhui,Kangrui.Degradation model and application in life prediction of rotating-mechanism[J].Chinese Journal of Nuclear Science and Engineering,2009,29(2):146-151.
[15]左芳君.机械结构的疲劳寿命预测与可靠性方法研究[D].成都:电子科技大学博士学位论文,2016.Zuo Fangjun.Research on methods for reliability analysis and fatigue life prediction for mechanical structure[D].Chengdu:University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,2016.
[16]DL/T 587-2007,微机继电保护装置运行管理规程[S].