2018年全球重大天气气候事件及其成因
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摘要
2018年全球主要温室气体浓度继续攀升,地表温度相比工业化前水平偏高0. 99℃,为有观测记录以来的历史第四高值。全球冰川总量连续31年减少,南北极海冰范围全年处于历史低位。全球海洋表面温度较常年显著偏高,海平面继续加速上升,海洋热含量创历史新高,海洋酸化的影响日益加剧。年内,世界各地发生了许多重大天气气候事件,包括北半球异常活跃的热带气旋季、欧洲夏季持续性高温干燥天气、印度西南部的特大洪灾、澳洲东部严重旱情、欧美多地的低温暴雪以及全球多地的森林大火和强对流天气,造成了严重的人口伤亡和社会经济损失。本文系统性总结了2018年全球重大天气气候事件及其影响,并重点分析了印度近百年来最严重洪灾和美国东海岸爆发性低温雨雪冰冻两个典型气候事件的形成原因。分析表明,夏季南亚季风强度偏强、控制时间偏长,8月在南亚季风槽西部位置偏北、索马里越赤道急流偏强的共同作用下,南印度洋及阿拉伯海上空的水汽大量向印度地区输送,持续性的强降水天气引发了该地区近百年以来最严重的洪灾;1月上旬,在耦合的急流结构、强烈的海洋温度梯度以及气旋外围气温偏高的共同作用下,冬季风暴格雷森在短时间内爆发性加强,造成美国东海岸出现气温骤降、强风暴雪等剧烈天气现象。
The concentration of greenhouse gases kept increasing in 2018, while the global mean temperatures were 0. 99℃ above pre-industrial levels, which was the fourth warmest year on record. The total amonnt of global glacier has been decreasing continuously for 31 years, and the sea ice extent of Arctic sea and Antarctic lay at a low level on record throughout the year. Global sea surface temperatures were positive above the 1981-2010 average, and the global mean sea level was rising steadily. The ocean heat content reached a new record highs, with the intensified impact of ocean acidification. Many significant weather and climate events occurred in 2018 and caused serious human casualties and socio-economic losses, including a very active tropical cyclone season in Northern Hemisphere, the persistent dry and hot summer in large parts of Europe, the severe floods in Southwest India, the severe drought in eastern Australia, the cold and heavy snowstorms in Europe and America, as well as the wildfires and severe convective weather events in many parts of the world. This paper systematically summarizes the major global weather and climate events in 2018 and their impacts, and focuses on the possible causes of the worst flooding in India in the recent 100 years and the explosive low temperature, rain-snow and freezing events on the east coast of the United States, the two typical weather events analysis results show that under the combined action of the strengthening and persistent South Asia summer monsoon, northwestward monsoon trough position and strengthening Somali jet in August, the water vapor transport to India was in great quantities from southern Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea, causing continuous heavy rainfall and resulting in the worst flooding in India in recent 100 years. In early January, under the combined influence of coupled jet structure,strong ocean temperature gradient and high temperature surrounding cyclones, the winter windstorm Grayson intensified explosively, resulting in severe coldwave and snowstorm in the east coast of the United States.
The concentration of greenhouse gases kept increasing in 2018, while the global mean temperatures were 0. 99℃ above pre-industrial levels, which was the fourth warmest year on record. The total amonnt of global glacier has been decreasing continuously for 31 years, and the sea ice extent of Arctic sea and Antarctic lay at a low level on record throughout the year. Global sea surface temperatures were positive above the 1981-2010 average, and the global mean sea level was rising steadily. The ocean heat content reached a new record highs, with the intensified impact of ocean acidification. Many significant weather and climate events occurred in 2018 and caused serious human casualties and socio-economic losses, including a very active tropical cyclone season in Northern Hemisphere, the persistent dry and hot summer in large parts of Europe, the severe floods in Southwest India, the severe drought in eastern Australia, the cold and heavy snowstorms in Europe and America, as well as the wildfires and severe convective weather events in many parts of the world. This paper systematically summarizes the major global weather and climate events in 2018 and their impacts, and focuses on the possible causes of the worst flooding in India in the recent 100 years and the explosive low temperature, rain-snow and freezing events on the east coast of the United States, the two typical weather events analysis results show that under the combined action of the strengthening and persistent South Asia summer monsoon, northwestward monsoon trough position and strengthening Somali jet in August, the water vapor transport to India was in great quantities from southern Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea, causing continuous heavy rainfall and resulting in the worst flooding in India in recent 100 years. In early January, under the combined influence of coupled jet structure,strong ocean temperature gradient and high temperature surrounding cyclones, the winter windstorm Grayson intensified explosively, resulting in severe coldwave and snowstorm in the east coast of the United States.
引文
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IMD,2018. End of Season Report for the 2018 Southwest Monsoon.India Meteorological Department[EB/OL].[2019-04-01]. http://www. imd. gov. in/pages/monsoon_main. php.
IPCC,2013. Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis[M]//Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. New York:Cambridge University Press.
Jain S K,Kumar V,2012. Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India[J]. Current sci, 102(1):37-49.
Munich Re, 2019. Munich Reinsurance Group[EB/OL].[2019-04-01]. https://www. munichre. com/en/media-relations/publications.
NOAA,2019. Global climate report annual 2018[EB/OL].[2019-04-01]. https://www. ncdc. noaa. gov/sotc/global/201813.
Sanders F,Gyakum J R, 1980. Synoptic-Dynamic Climatology of the"Bomb"[J]. Mon Wea Rev,108(10):1589-1606.
Turner A G,Slingo J M,2011. Using idealized snow forcing to test teleconnections with the Indian summer monsoon in the Hadley Centre GCM[J]. Climate Dynamics,36(9/10):1717-1735.
Uccellini L W, Koch S E, 1987. The synoptic setting and possible energy sources for mesoscale wave disturbances[J]. Mon Wea Rev,115(3):721-729.
WCRP,2018. Global sea-level budget 1993-present[J]. Earth Systems Science Data, 10(3):1551-1590.
WMO,2019. WMO statement on the status of the global climate in2018[EB/OL].[2019-04-01]. https://library. wmo. int/doc_num. php? explnum_id=5789.
Yoshida A,Asuma Y,2004. Numerical study of explosively developing extratropical cyclones in the Northwestern Pacific Region[J]. Mon Wea Rev, 132(5):1121-1142.
秦大河,2015.中国极端天气气候事件和灾害风险管理与适应国家评估报告[M].北京:科学出版社. Qin D H,2015. China National Assessment Report on Risk Management and Adaptation of Climate Extremes and Disasters[M]. Beijing:Science Press(in Chinese).
孙劭,李多,刘绿柳,等,2017. 2016年全球重大天气气候事件及其成因[J].气象,43(4):477-485. Sun S,Li D,Liu L L,et al,2017.Global major weather and climate events in 2016 and the possible causes[J]. Meteor Mon,43(4):477-485(in Chinese).
孙劭,王东阡,尹宜舟,等,2018. 2017年全球重大天气气候事件及其成因[J].气象,44(4):556-564. Sun S,Wang D Q,Yin Y Z,etal,2018. Global major weather and climate events in 2017 and the possible causes[J]. Meteor Mon, 44(4). 556-564(in Chinese).
张树钦,傅刚,2017.北太平洋爆发性气旋的统计特征[J].中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版),47(8):13-22. Zhang S Q,Fu G,2017.Statistical features of explosive cyclones over the Northern Pacific[J]. Periodical of Ocean University of China,47(8):13-22(in Chinese).
张顺利,陶诗言,2001.青藏高原积雪对亚洲夏季风影响的诊断及数值研究[J].大气科学,25(3):372-390. Zhang S L,Tao S Y,2001. Influences of snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau on Asian summer monsoon[J]. Chin J Atmos Sci, 25(3):372-390(in Chinese).
Bamzai A S,Shukla J,1999. Relation between Eurasian snow cover,snow depth and the Indian summer monsoon:an observational study[J]. J Climate, 12(10):3117-3132.
Eckstein D,Hutfils M,Winges M,2018. Global Climate Risk Index2019[EB/OL].[2019-04-01]. http://www. germanwatch.org/.
Hahn D G,Shukla J, 1976. An apparent relationship between Eurasian snow cover and Indian monsoon rainfall[J]. J Atmos Sci,33(12):2461-2462.
IMD,2018. End of Season Report for the 2018 Southwest Monsoon.India Meteorological Department[EB/OL].[2019-04-01]. http://www. imd. gov. in/pages/monsoon_main. php.
IPCC,2013. Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis[M]//Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. New York:Cambridge University Press.
Jain S K,Kumar V,2012. Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India[J]. Current sci, 102(1):37-49.
Munich Re, 2019. Munich Reinsurance Group[EB/OL].[2019-04-01]. https://www. munichre. com/en/media-relations/publications.
NOAA,2019. Global climate report annual 2018[EB/OL].[2019-04-01]. https://www. ncdc. noaa. gov/sotc/global/201813.
Sanders F,Gyakum J R, 1980. Synoptic-Dynamic Climatology of the"Bomb"[J]. Mon Wea Rev,108(10):1589-1606.
Turner A G,Slingo J M,2011. Using idealized snow forcing to test teleconnections with the Indian summer monsoon in the Hadley Centre GCM[J]. Climate Dynamics,36(9/10):1717-1735.
Uccellini L W, Koch S E, 1987. The synoptic setting and possible energy sources for mesoscale wave disturbances[J]. Mon Wea Rev,115(3):721-729.
WCRP,2018. Global sea-level budget 1993-present[J]. Earth Systems Science Data, 10(3):1551-1590.
WMO,2019. WMO statement on the status of the global climate in2018[EB/OL].[2019-04-01]. https://library. wmo. int/doc_num. php? explnum_id=5789.
Yoshida A,Asuma Y,2004. Numerical study of explosively developing extratropical cyclones in the Northwestern Pacific Region[J]. Mon Wea Rev, 132(5):1121-1142.