中国入境旅游目的地时空地域格局分异研究
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摘要
入境旅游是衡量一个国家或地区旅游国际竞争力的重要指标。入境旅游目的地由于资源、市场等禀赋不同,造成了时空地域格局的差异。借助区位商、市场占有两个指标构建研究模型,选取1995年、2000年、2005年、2010年、2014年、2015年6个典型年份的历史数据,对我国入境旅游目的地空间地域格局分布差异进行分析。根据研究模型将我国入境旅游目的地划分为核心区、强势区、潜力增长区、转型区4类区域,入境旅游目的地的旅游产业地位和市场竞争力两极分化较严重,有13个省区呈现动态发展变化,主要有正向演化、负向演化、不规则抛物线型演化和波动演化4种类型。
Inbound tourism was an important indicator to measure a country or a region' s international competitiveness. Inbound tourism destinations,due to the different resources and market endowments,also caused differences in temporal and spatial patterns.Based on the two indicators of location quotient and market share,this paper constructed the research model,selected the historical data of 6 typical years in 1995,2000,2005,2010,2014 and 2015,and analyzed the difference of spatial distribution pattern of China' s inbound tourism destination. According to the research model,the destination of inbound tourism could be divided into four categories:Core area,strong area,potential growth area,transition area. In the core area,the position of tourism industry was higher and the competitiveness of tourism market was stronger,so the regional growth pole should be brought into play. Strong area,the competitiveness of tourism market was stronger,but the status of tourism industry was not high,so the market could develop freely without much intervention. Potential growth area,tourism market competitiveness was weak,but the status of tourism industry was high,could build a new tourism-led city image. Transition areas,tourism industry status was low,tourism market competitiveness was weak,could adjust the tourism industry structure. The status of tourism industry and market competitiveness of inbound tourism destinations were polarized seriously. There were 13 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions showing dynamic changes,mainly showing positive evolution and negative evolution,irregular parabolic evolution and wave evolution. The evolution of irregular parabolic type also had the difference between the irregular positive parabolic type and the inverted parabolic type,volatility evolution also had weak volatility and strong volatility.
Inbound tourism was an important indicator to measure a country or a region' s international competitiveness. Inbound tourism destinations,due to the different resources and market endowments,also caused differences in temporal and spatial patterns.Based on the two indicators of location quotient and market share,this paper constructed the research model,selected the historical data of 6 typical years in 1995,2000,2005,2010,2014 and 2015,and analyzed the difference of spatial distribution pattern of China' s inbound tourism destination. According to the research model,the destination of inbound tourism could be divided into four categories:Core area,strong area,potential growth area,transition area. In the core area,the position of tourism industry was higher and the competitiveness of tourism market was stronger,so the regional growth pole should be brought into play. Strong area,the competitiveness of tourism market was stronger,but the status of tourism industry was not high,so the market could develop freely without much intervention. Potential growth area,tourism market competitiveness was weak,but the status of tourism industry was high,could build a new tourism-led city image. Transition areas,tourism industry status was low,tourism market competitiveness was weak,could adjust the tourism industry structure. The status of tourism industry and market competitiveness of inbound tourism destinations were polarized seriously. There were 13 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions showing dynamic changes,mainly showing positive evolution and negative evolution,irregular parabolic evolution and wave evolution. The evolution of irregular parabolic type also had the difference between the irregular positive parabolic type and the inverted parabolic type,volatility evolution also had weak volatility and strong volatility.
引文
[1]李创新,马耀峰,王永明. 1993—2012年中国入境旅游时空地域格局分异与动态演进——基于全局K-Means谱聚类法的“典型区域”实证研究[J].资源科学,2015,37(11)∶2100-2110.
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[3]唐睿,冯学钢,周成.“丝绸之路经济带”入境旅游市场效率研究——基于西北五省(区)DEA—面板Tobit的实证[J].国际经贸探索,2017,33(7)∶4-18.
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[5]王佳果,吴忠军,曹宏丽.“一带一路”背景下民族地区入境旅游时空特征[J].经济地理,2017,37(7)∶208-215.
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[7]王钦安,张丽惠.我国入境旅游时序差异特征与空间格局演变分析[J].统计与决策,2017(14)∶130-134.
[8]邢珏珏,李业锦,赵明.我国城市国际旅游竞争优势特征及其影响因素分析[J].经济地理,2005,25(5)∶712-715.
[9]靳诚,陆玉麒,徐菁. 1995年来中国省际入境旅游相对优势演化的空间特征分析[J].人文地理,2010,25(1)∶148-154.
[10]隋建利,刘碧莹.中国旅游发展与宏观经济增长的非线性时变因果关系——基于非线性马尔科夫区制转移因果模型[J].经济管理,2017,39(8)∶24-41.
[11]把多勋,温倩.“一带一路”背景下西部地区入境旅游趋势与发展研究[J].世界经济研究,2017(8)∶64-73,136.
[12]马耀峰,梁旺兵.基于亲景度的美国旅华市场拓展研究——以我国六大旅游热点城市为例[J].旅游学刊,2005,20(1)∶35-38.
[13]孙根年,杨忍,姚宏.基于重心模型的中国入境旅游地域结构演变研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2008,22(7)∶150-157.
[14]赵安周,白凯,卫海燕.中国入境旅游重心演变与省域空间分异规律[J].陕西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2011,39(4)∶97-102.
[15]马丽君,郭留留,龙茂兴,等. 1994年来中国入境旅游与对外贸易重心演变及其相关分析[J].经济地理,2015,35(11)∶198-204.
[16]宋鸿,陈晓玲.运用空间自相关分析中国入境旅游增长空间格局[J].世界地理研究,2006,15(1)∶99-106.
[17]马丽君,龙云.基于社会网络分析法的中国省际入境旅游经济增长空间关联性[J].地理科学,2017,37(11)∶1705-1711.
[18]郝金连,林善浪,王利.长江经济带入境旅游经济时空格局动态性——基于ESDA&GWR法[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(10)∶1498-1507.
[19]Stephanie A,Brett A G,Patricia P M. International Entrepreneurship and Geographic Location:An Empirical Examination of New Venture Internationalization[J]. Journal of International Business Studies,2008,39(2)∶267-290.
[20]Bin S,Doo-Kwon B,Shunxian Z. Human Eye Location Algorithm Based on Multi-scale Self-quotient Image and Morphological Filtering for Multimedia Big Data[J]. Multimedia Tools and Applications,2017,(7)∶1-13.
[21]夏学英,金艳春,李龙.我国旅游产业区域比较优势与发展策略研究[J].经济问题,2012,(9)∶119-122.
[22]付帅,李龙.基于区位商的旅游产业区域比较优势研究——以辽宁省为例[J].资源开发与市场,2013,29(4)∶433-435.
[23]李龙,武永成.基于LQ-MS模型的安徽省旅游产业空间分异研究[J].安徽农业大学学报(社会科学版),2017,26(3)∶49-52.
[24]田广增.基于区位商理论的河南省京广/京珠沿线旅游带空间组织研究[J].国土与自然资源研究,2011(3)∶54-56.
[25]吴文浩,戴明辉.基于区位商的黄山国际旅游城市竞争力的实证研究[J].统计与决策,2012(19)∶127-129.
[26]王兆峰.旅游产业集群识别方法分析[J].华中科技大学学报(社会科学版),2009,23(1)∶82-86.
[27]李龙.辽宁省旅游产业结构优化研究[D].沈阳:沈阳师范大学硕士学位论文,2013.
[28]阎友兵,文小连.基于区位商的湖南省旅游产业集聚度评价[J].邵阳学院学报(社会科学版),2014,13(3)∶83-88.
[29]李航飞.广东省旅游产业集聚水平与效应分析[J].云南地理环境研究,2017,29(2)∶9-16.
[2]乔苗苗,任瑞萍,冯文勇,等. 2001—2014年河南省入境旅游市场变化特征分析[J].山西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2017,31(3)∶102-106.
[3]唐睿,冯学钢,周成.“丝绸之路经济带”入境旅游市场效率研究——基于西北五省(区)DEA—面板Tobit的实证[J].国际经贸探索,2017,33(7)∶4-18.
[4]朱亮,张建萍.基于Bernstein Copula函数的中国入境旅游需求预测[J].旅游学刊,2017,32(11)∶41-48.
[5]王佳果,吴忠军,曹宏丽.“一带一路”背景下民族地区入境旅游时空特征[J].经济地理,2017,37(7)∶208-215.
[6]王秀兰,吴亚琪,王秀芬.中国不同地区入境旅游客源时空差异分析[J].山西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2017,31(4)∶106-112.
[7]王钦安,张丽惠.我国入境旅游时序差异特征与空间格局演变分析[J].统计与决策,2017(14)∶130-134.
[8]邢珏珏,李业锦,赵明.我国城市国际旅游竞争优势特征及其影响因素分析[J].经济地理,2005,25(5)∶712-715.
[9]靳诚,陆玉麒,徐菁. 1995年来中国省际入境旅游相对优势演化的空间特征分析[J].人文地理,2010,25(1)∶148-154.
[10]隋建利,刘碧莹.中国旅游发展与宏观经济增长的非线性时变因果关系——基于非线性马尔科夫区制转移因果模型[J].经济管理,2017,39(8)∶24-41.
[11]把多勋,温倩.“一带一路”背景下西部地区入境旅游趋势与发展研究[J].世界经济研究,2017(8)∶64-73,136.
[12]马耀峰,梁旺兵.基于亲景度的美国旅华市场拓展研究——以我国六大旅游热点城市为例[J].旅游学刊,2005,20(1)∶35-38.
[13]孙根年,杨忍,姚宏.基于重心模型的中国入境旅游地域结构演变研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2008,22(7)∶150-157.
[14]赵安周,白凯,卫海燕.中国入境旅游重心演变与省域空间分异规律[J].陕西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2011,39(4)∶97-102.
[15]马丽君,郭留留,龙茂兴,等. 1994年来中国入境旅游与对外贸易重心演变及其相关分析[J].经济地理,2015,35(11)∶198-204.
[16]宋鸿,陈晓玲.运用空间自相关分析中国入境旅游增长空间格局[J].世界地理研究,2006,15(1)∶99-106.
[17]马丽君,龙云.基于社会网络分析法的中国省际入境旅游经济增长空间关联性[J].地理科学,2017,37(11)∶1705-1711.
[18]郝金连,林善浪,王利.长江经济带入境旅游经济时空格局动态性——基于ESDA&GWR法[J].长江流域资源与环境,2017,26(10)∶1498-1507.
[19]Stephanie A,Brett A G,Patricia P M. International Entrepreneurship and Geographic Location:An Empirical Examination of New Venture Internationalization[J]. Journal of International Business Studies,2008,39(2)∶267-290.
[20]Bin S,Doo-Kwon B,Shunxian Z. Human Eye Location Algorithm Based on Multi-scale Self-quotient Image and Morphological Filtering for Multimedia Big Data[J]. Multimedia Tools and Applications,2017,(7)∶1-13.
[21]夏学英,金艳春,李龙.我国旅游产业区域比较优势与发展策略研究[J].经济问题,2012,(9)∶119-122.
[22]付帅,李龙.基于区位商的旅游产业区域比较优势研究——以辽宁省为例[J].资源开发与市场,2013,29(4)∶433-435.
[23]李龙,武永成.基于LQ-MS模型的安徽省旅游产业空间分异研究[J].安徽农业大学学报(社会科学版),2017,26(3)∶49-52.
[24]田广增.基于区位商理论的河南省京广/京珠沿线旅游带空间组织研究[J].国土与自然资源研究,2011(3)∶54-56.
[25]吴文浩,戴明辉.基于区位商的黄山国际旅游城市竞争力的实证研究[J].统计与决策,2012(19)∶127-129.
[26]王兆峰.旅游产业集群识别方法分析[J].华中科技大学学报(社会科学版),2009,23(1)∶82-86.
[27]李龙.辽宁省旅游产业结构优化研究[D].沈阳:沈阳师范大学硕士学位论文,2013.
[28]阎友兵,文小连.基于区位商的湖南省旅游产业集聚度评价[J].邵阳学院学报(社会科学版),2014,13(3)∶83-88.
[29]李航飞.广东省旅游产业集聚水平与效应分析[J].云南地理环境研究,2017,29(2)∶9-16.