基于贫困脆弱性视角下的就业扶贫影响效应研究
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摘要
相对贫困地区农户的贫困防治对我国2020年后扶贫时代的扶贫框架构建具有重要的借鉴意义。而贫困脆弱性作为贫困防治的关键指标,更加关注农村人口的未来福利特征。文章以国家级扶贫改革试验区宿迁为研究对象,探究相对贫困地区农户贫困脆弱性特征及务工对减缓贫困脆弱性的影响。研究发现,在4 000元、6 000元和8 000元三条贫困线下,脆弱农户占总样本的比重分别为30.70%、43.57%和52.63%;参与务工显著降低总样本的脆弱性水平,且外出务工比本地务工在减缓贫困脆弱性方面更具有优越性。因此,扶贫政策应注重政策靶向目标的修正,将目标更多集中于未来贫困农户;进一步落实产业配套政策,推动就业扶贫,促进农村地区劳动力市场发展,从而实现脱贫可持续性;虽然外出务工更能减缓未来贫困,但在实践中既要考虑收入维度的益贫效率,也应关注支出型贫困问题。
The poverty prevention in relatively poor areas attaches great reference significance to the construction of poverty alleviation framework in the post-2020 poverty alleviation era in China. As a key index of poverty prevention,vulnerability to poverty addresses the future welfare of rural population. This paper takes Suqian,a state-level poverty alleviation reform pilot area,as a sample to study the characteristics of poverty vulnerability of farmers in relatively poor areas and the impact of the anti-poverty project through employment promotion on the alleviation of poverty vulnerability. Our study aims to achieve four basic goals:firstly,we measure the vulnerability to poverty in relatively poor areas; secondly,we analyze the relationship between current poverty and current vulnerability(future poverty),and judge the deviation degree of the current poverty identification target;thirdly,we clarify the relationship between participating in work and alleviating the vulnerability to poverty,and analyze the reasonable direction of policy adjustment by distinguishing the different effects of work on poor households and non-poor households;fourthly,we further analyze the difference of the impact of two employment flows,i.e. local workers and migrant workers,on the vulnerability to poverty,and give reasonable suggestions based on their advantages and disadvantages in practice.The study through the Chaudhuri prediction method shows that under the three poverty lines of 4 000 yuan,6 000 yuan,and 8 000 yuan,the proportion of vulnerable households in the total sample is 30.70%,43.57% and 52.63%,respectively. The proportion of vulnerable households is lower than the current sample poverty incidence which is 55.85% under the poverty line of6 000 yuan,and the current poverty is independent of current vulnerability. Participation in employment can significantly reduce the vulnerability of the total sample. The separate tests for poor and non-poor households also have significant effects. Further analysis shows that from the perspective of income,migrant work is more advantageous than local employment in reducing the vulnerability to poverty. Regarding the possible endogenous effects on research results,this paper uses Propensity Score Matching(PSM) to test the results,and the conclusions are consistent. Based on the research conclusions,this paper points out that:the poverty policy should pay more attention to the revision of the target of poverty alleviation policies and focus more on future poor farmers;the government should further implement industrial supporting policies to promote employment-driven poverty alleviation,promote the development of the labor market in rural areas,and thus achieve poverty alleviation sustainability; although migrant workers can alleviate future poverty,in practice we should also weigh the expenditure-type poverty caused by migrant work,the problem of "three-stays" and the transfer of the rural poor to cities.
The poverty prevention in relatively poor areas attaches great reference significance to the construction of poverty alleviation framework in the post-2020 poverty alleviation era in China. As a key index of poverty prevention,vulnerability to poverty addresses the future welfare of rural population. This paper takes Suqian,a state-level poverty alleviation reform pilot area,as a sample to study the characteristics of poverty vulnerability of farmers in relatively poor areas and the impact of the anti-poverty project through employment promotion on the alleviation of poverty vulnerability. Our study aims to achieve four basic goals:firstly,we measure the vulnerability to poverty in relatively poor areas; secondly,we analyze the relationship between current poverty and current vulnerability(future poverty),and judge the deviation degree of the current poverty identification target;thirdly,we clarify the relationship between participating in work and alleviating the vulnerability to poverty,and analyze the reasonable direction of policy adjustment by distinguishing the different effects of work on poor households and non-poor households;fourthly,we further analyze the difference of the impact of two employment flows,i.e. local workers and migrant workers,on the vulnerability to poverty,and give reasonable suggestions based on their advantages and disadvantages in practice.The study through the Chaudhuri prediction method shows that under the three poverty lines of 4 000 yuan,6 000 yuan,and 8 000 yuan,the proportion of vulnerable households in the total sample is 30.70%,43.57% and 52.63%,respectively. The proportion of vulnerable households is lower than the current sample poverty incidence which is 55.85% under the poverty line of6 000 yuan,and the current poverty is independent of current vulnerability. Participation in employment can significantly reduce the vulnerability of the total sample. The separate tests for poor and non-poor households also have significant effects. Further analysis shows that from the perspective of income,migrant work is more advantageous than local employment in reducing the vulnerability to poverty. Regarding the possible endogenous effects on research results,this paper uses Propensity Score Matching(PSM) to test the results,and the conclusions are consistent. Based on the research conclusions,this paper points out that:the poverty policy should pay more attention to the revision of the target of poverty alleviation policies and focus more on future poor farmers;the government should further implement industrial supporting policies to promote employment-driven poverty alleviation,promote the development of the labor market in rural areas,and thus achieve poverty alleviation sustainability; although migrant workers can alleviate future poverty,in practice we should also weigh the expenditure-type poverty caused by migrant work,the problem of "three-stays" and the transfer of the rural poor to cities.
引文
[1]池振合,杨宜勇.贫困线研究综述[J].经济理论与经济管理,2012,(7).
[2]樊丽明,解垩.公共转移支付减少了贫困脆弱性吗?[J].经济研究,2014,(8).
[3]高若晨,李实.农村劳动力外出是否有利留守家庭持久脱贫?——基于贫困脆弱性方法的实证分析[J].北京师范大学学报(社会科学版),2018,(4).
[4]顾昕.贫困度量的国际探索与中国贫困线的确定[J].天津社会科学,2011,(1).
[5]郭熙保,周强.长期多维贫困、不平等与致贫因素[J].经济研究,2016,(6).
[6]胡伦,陆迁.干旱风险冲击下节水灌溉技术采用的减贫效应——以甘肃省张掖市为例[J].资源科学,2018,(2).
[7]胡晗,司亚飞,王立剑.产业扶贫政策对贫困户生计策略和收入的影响——来自陕西省的经验证据[J].中国农村经济,2018,(1).
[8]黄承伟,王小林,徐丽萍.贫困脆弱性:概念框架和测量方法[J].农业技术经济,2010,(8).
[9]蒋丽丽.贫困脆弱性理论与政策研究新进展[J].经济学动态,2017,(6).
[10]李聪.易地移民搬迁对农户贫困脆弱性的影响——来自陕南山区的证据[J].经济经纬,2018,(1).
[11]李永友,沈坤荣.财政支出结构、相对贫困与经济增长[J].管理世界,2007,(11).
[12]林文,邓明.贸易开放度是否影响了我国农村贫困脆弱性——基于CHNS微观数据的经验分析[J].国际贸易问题,2014,(6).
[13]刘一伟,刁力.社会资本、非农就业与农村居民贫困[J].华南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2018,(2).
[14]陆汉文,李文君.“有用无效”:贫困人口能力建设的结构性困境——以豫西Y县农村实用技术培训为例[J].贵州社会科学,2017,(4).
[15]史志乐,张琦.我国农村居民家庭的多维贫困测度及动态变化研究[J].当代经济管理,2018,(11).
[16]万广华,刘飞,章元.资产视角下的贫困脆弱性分解:基于中国农户面板数据的经验分析[J].中国农村经济,2014,(4).
[17]王荣党,李保春.西方贫困线理论渊源和构造方法的演进脉络[J].财政研究,2017,(7).
[18]文辉星.农户土地经营方式与农户经济效益关系的研究[D].杭州:浙江大学,2016.
[19]徐伟,章元,万广华.社会网络与贫困脆弱性——基于中国农村数据的实证分析[J].学海,2011,(4).
[20]杨龙,汪三贵.贫困地区农户脆弱性及其影响因素分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,(10).
[21]叶普万.贫困概念及其类型研究述评[J].经济学动态,2006,(7).
[22]Alock P. Understanding poverty[M]. London:Macmillan,1993.
[23]Azeem M M,Mugera A W,Schilizzi S. Poverty and vulnerability in the Punjab,Pakistan:A multilevel analysis[J]. Journal of Asian Economics,2016,44:57–72.
[24]Chang Y M,Huang B W,Chen Y J. Labor supply,income,and welfare of the farm household[J]. Labour Economics,2012,19(3):427–437.
[25]Chaudhuri S,Jalan J,Suryahadi A. Assessing household vulnerability to poverty from cross-sectional data:A methodology and estimates from Indonesia[D]. Columbia:Department of Economics,Columbia University,2002.
[26]Dercon S,Krishnan P. Vulnerability,seasonality and poverty in Ethiopia[J]. The Journal of Development Studies,2000,36(6):25–53.
[27]échevin D. Measuring vulnerability to asset-poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa[J]. World Development,2013,46:211–222.
[28]Günther I,Harttgen K. Estimating households vulnerability to idiosyncratic and covariate shocks:A novel method applied in Madagascar[J]. World Development,2009,37(7):1222–1234.
[29]Klasen S,Waibel H. Vulnerability to poverty in South-East Asia:Drivers,measurement,responses,and policy issues[J]. World Development,2014,71:1–3.
[30]Ligon E,Schechter L. Measuring vulnerability[J]. The Economic Journal,2003,113(486):C95–C102.
[31]Mahanta R,Das D. Flood induced vulnerability to poverty:Evidence from Brahmaputra Valley,Assam,India[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,2017,24:451–461.
[32]Niemietz K. A New understanding of poverty:Poverty measurement and policy implications[D]. London:The Institute of Economic Affairs,2011.
[33]Novignon J,Nonvignon J,Mussa R,et al. Health and vulnerability to poverty in Ghana:Evidence from the Ghana living standards survey round 5[J]. Health Economics Review,2012,2:11.
[34]Ward P S. Transient poverty,poverty dynamics,and vulnerability to poverty:An empirical analysis using a balanced panel from rural China[J]. World Development,2016,78:541–553.
[35]World Bank. World development report 2000/2001:Attacking poverty[M]. Washington,D.C.:World Bank,2001.
[36]Xu D D,Peng L,Liu S Q,et al. Influences of migrant work income on the poverty vulnerability disaster threatened area:A case study of the Three Gorges Reservoir area,China[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,2017,22:62–70.
[37]Zereyesus Y A,Embaye W T,Tsiboe F,et al. Implications of non-farm work to vulnerability to food povertyrecent evidence from northern Ghana[J]. World Development,2017,91:113–124.
(1)数据来源:国家统计局。
(1)“十位一体”是指宿迁市村社区建设中配备的党群服务中心、便民超市、“银村通”、卫生室、文体广场、公交站台、文化活动中心、幼儿园、“三来一加”加工点、电商服务点。
[2]樊丽明,解垩.公共转移支付减少了贫困脆弱性吗?[J].经济研究,2014,(8).
[3]高若晨,李实.农村劳动力外出是否有利留守家庭持久脱贫?——基于贫困脆弱性方法的实证分析[J].北京师范大学学报(社会科学版),2018,(4).
[4]顾昕.贫困度量的国际探索与中国贫困线的确定[J].天津社会科学,2011,(1).
[5]郭熙保,周强.长期多维贫困、不平等与致贫因素[J].经济研究,2016,(6).
[6]胡伦,陆迁.干旱风险冲击下节水灌溉技术采用的减贫效应——以甘肃省张掖市为例[J].资源科学,2018,(2).
[7]胡晗,司亚飞,王立剑.产业扶贫政策对贫困户生计策略和收入的影响——来自陕西省的经验证据[J].中国农村经济,2018,(1).
[8]黄承伟,王小林,徐丽萍.贫困脆弱性:概念框架和测量方法[J].农业技术经济,2010,(8).
[9]蒋丽丽.贫困脆弱性理论与政策研究新进展[J].经济学动态,2017,(6).
[10]李聪.易地移民搬迁对农户贫困脆弱性的影响——来自陕南山区的证据[J].经济经纬,2018,(1).
[11]李永友,沈坤荣.财政支出结构、相对贫困与经济增长[J].管理世界,2007,(11).
[12]林文,邓明.贸易开放度是否影响了我国农村贫困脆弱性——基于CHNS微观数据的经验分析[J].国际贸易问题,2014,(6).
[13]刘一伟,刁力.社会资本、非农就业与农村居民贫困[J].华南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2018,(2).
[14]陆汉文,李文君.“有用无效”:贫困人口能力建设的结构性困境——以豫西Y县农村实用技术培训为例[J].贵州社会科学,2017,(4).
[15]史志乐,张琦.我国农村居民家庭的多维贫困测度及动态变化研究[J].当代经济管理,2018,(11).
[16]万广华,刘飞,章元.资产视角下的贫困脆弱性分解:基于中国农户面板数据的经验分析[J].中国农村经济,2014,(4).
[17]王荣党,李保春.西方贫困线理论渊源和构造方法的演进脉络[J].财政研究,2017,(7).
[18]文辉星.农户土地经营方式与农户经济效益关系的研究[D].杭州:浙江大学,2016.
[19]徐伟,章元,万广华.社会网络与贫困脆弱性——基于中国农村数据的实证分析[J].学海,2011,(4).
[20]杨龙,汪三贵.贫困地区农户脆弱性及其影响因素分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,(10).
[21]叶普万.贫困概念及其类型研究述评[J].经济学动态,2006,(7).
[22]Alock P. Understanding poverty[M]. London:Macmillan,1993.
[23]Azeem M M,Mugera A W,Schilizzi S. Poverty and vulnerability in the Punjab,Pakistan:A multilevel analysis[J]. Journal of Asian Economics,2016,44:57–72.
[24]Chang Y M,Huang B W,Chen Y J. Labor supply,income,and welfare of the farm household[J]. Labour Economics,2012,19(3):427–437.
[25]Chaudhuri S,Jalan J,Suryahadi A. Assessing household vulnerability to poverty from cross-sectional data:A methodology and estimates from Indonesia[D]. Columbia:Department of Economics,Columbia University,2002.
[26]Dercon S,Krishnan P. Vulnerability,seasonality and poverty in Ethiopia[J]. The Journal of Development Studies,2000,36(6):25–53.
[27]échevin D. Measuring vulnerability to asset-poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa[J]. World Development,2013,46:211–222.
[28]Günther I,Harttgen K. Estimating households vulnerability to idiosyncratic and covariate shocks:A novel method applied in Madagascar[J]. World Development,2009,37(7):1222–1234.
[29]Klasen S,Waibel H. Vulnerability to poverty in South-East Asia:Drivers,measurement,responses,and policy issues[J]. World Development,2014,71:1–3.
[30]Ligon E,Schechter L. Measuring vulnerability[J]. The Economic Journal,2003,113(486):C95–C102.
[31]Mahanta R,Das D. Flood induced vulnerability to poverty:Evidence from Brahmaputra Valley,Assam,India[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,2017,24:451–461.
[32]Niemietz K. A New understanding of poverty:Poverty measurement and policy implications[D]. London:The Institute of Economic Affairs,2011.
[33]Novignon J,Nonvignon J,Mussa R,et al. Health and vulnerability to poverty in Ghana:Evidence from the Ghana living standards survey round 5[J]. Health Economics Review,2012,2:11.
[34]Ward P S. Transient poverty,poverty dynamics,and vulnerability to poverty:An empirical analysis using a balanced panel from rural China[J]. World Development,2016,78:541–553.
[35]World Bank. World development report 2000/2001:Attacking poverty[M]. Washington,D.C.:World Bank,2001.
[36]Xu D D,Peng L,Liu S Q,et al. Influences of migrant work income on the poverty vulnerability disaster threatened area:A case study of the Three Gorges Reservoir area,China[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,2017,22:62–70.
[37]Zereyesus Y A,Embaye W T,Tsiboe F,et al. Implications of non-farm work to vulnerability to food povertyrecent evidence from northern Ghana[J]. World Development,2017,91:113–124.
(1)数据来源:国家统计局。
(1)“十位一体”是指宿迁市村社区建设中配备的党群服务中心、便民超市、“银村通”、卫生室、文体广场、公交站台、文化活动中心、幼儿园、“三来一加”加工点、电商服务点。