惠阳区1967—2016年农业热量资源变化特征
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摘要
本研究依据1967—2016年惠阳区国家基本气象观测站逐日平均气温资料,运用趋势分析、M-K突变检验和小波分析指标分析了惠阳区农业热量资源变化特征。结果表明,近50年来惠阳区农业热量资源增加明显,≥10℃年积温与年平均气温的增加呈显著相关,且皆表现出明显的增加趋势,平均升高102.6℃·d/10 a和0.24℃/10 a;≥10℃的年积温日呈缓慢波动增加趋势,升高速率1.73 d/10 a;热量资源增加趋势的阶段性显著,整体表现为一种突变现象,年平均气温和≥10℃的积温突变年分别为1990年和1988年,1996年为年平均气温显著增加开始年份;≥10℃的年积温日突变呈现升降交替,2017年后还将有1次突变后增加的趋势;震荡主周期为24~32年,在10~32年时间尺度的震荡周期上,发生了3次高低交替,且≥10℃的年积温日和积温较之年平均气温震荡表现更频繁。惠阳近50年平均气温为22.1℃,≥10℃积温平均为8028.8℃·d,满足热带作物生长对热量的需求,并满足三季稻的种植。因此,对于近50年来惠阳区热量资源增加并将继续增加的趋势下,需合理评估、开发和利用热量资源,及时有效规避农业气象风险。
Based on the daily mean temperature data of Huiyang National Basic Meteorological Station from 1967 to 2016, this paper analyzed the variation characteristics of agricultural heat resources in Huiyang bytrend analysis, M-K mutation test and wavelet analysis index. The results showed that: the increase ofagricultural heat resources in Huiyang in recent 50 years was obvious, specifically, ≥10℃ accumulated temperature and the increase of annual mean temperature showed a significant correlation, they both had anincreasing trend, the growth rate was 102.6℃·d/10 a and 0.24℃/10 a, respectively; however, ≥10℃ accumulated temperature duration days increased slowly and fluctuated with an increasing rate of 1.73 d/10 a; the increasingtrend of heat resources showed significant stages with a mutation phenomenon overall in recent 50 years, andthe mutation of the annual mean temperatures and ≥10℃ accumulated temperature occurred in 1990 and1988, respectively, the significant increase of annual mean temperature began in 1996; in addition, themutation test result of ≥10℃ accumulated temperature days showed a rise and fall alternation trend, it alsoindicated that there was another rising after 2017; the primary period of periodic oscillations was 24 to 32 years, and during the oscillation cycle of the 10 to 32 years, the periodic oscillations had 3 high and lowalternations, and the oscillations of ≥10℃ accumulated temperature and days were much more frequently thanthat of annual mean temperature. In the past 50 years, the average temperature and ≥10℃ accumulated temperature was 22.1℃ and 8028.8℃·d, which met the heat demand of the growth of tropical crops, and theplanting of triple-cropping rice. Therefore, considering the increase situation and continue increasing trend ofheat resources in Huiyang, it is necessary to evaluate, develop and utilize heat resources reasonably, and toavoid agricultural meteorological risks in a timely and effective manner.
Based on the daily mean temperature data of Huiyang National Basic Meteorological Station from 1967 to 2016, this paper analyzed the variation characteristics of agricultural heat resources in Huiyang bytrend analysis, M-K mutation test and wavelet analysis index. The results showed that: the increase ofagricultural heat resources in Huiyang in recent 50 years was obvious, specifically, ≥10℃ accumulated temperature and the increase of annual mean temperature showed a significant correlation, they both had anincreasing trend, the growth rate was 102.6℃·d/10 a and 0.24℃/10 a, respectively; however, ≥10℃ accumulated temperature duration days increased slowly and fluctuated with an increasing rate of 1.73 d/10 a; the increasingtrend of heat resources showed significant stages with a mutation phenomenon overall in recent 50 years, andthe mutation of the annual mean temperatures and ≥10℃ accumulated temperature occurred in 1990 and1988, respectively, the significant increase of annual mean temperature began in 1996; in addition, themutation test result of ≥10℃ accumulated temperature days showed a rise and fall alternation trend, it alsoindicated that there was another rising after 2017; the primary period of periodic oscillations was 24 to 32 years, and during the oscillation cycle of the 10 to 32 years, the periodic oscillations had 3 high and lowalternations, and the oscillations of ≥10℃ accumulated temperature and days were much more frequently thanthat of annual mean temperature. In the past 50 years, the average temperature and ≥10℃ accumulated temperature was 22.1℃ and 8028.8℃·d, which met the heat demand of the growth of tropical crops, and theplanting of triple-cropping rice. Therefore, considering the increase situation and continue increasing trend ofheat resources in Huiyang, it is necessary to evaluate, develop and utilize heat resources reasonably, and toavoid agricultural meteorological risks in a timely and effective manner.
引文
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[19]顾骏强,杨军.中国华南地区气候和环境变化特征及其对策[J].资源科学,2005,27(1):128-135.
[20]丁丽佳,王春林,凌良新.广东地区平均气温的时空变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2011,32(4):500-506.
[21]刘巽浩,陈阜.中国农作制[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2005:154-155.
[22]李勇,杨晓光,王文峰,等.全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响Ⅴ.气候变暖对中国热带作物种植北界和寒害风险的影响分析[J].中国农业科学,2010,43(12):2477-2484.
[23]官春云,黄璜,黄国勤,等.中国南方稻田多熟种植存在的问题及对策[J].作物杂志,2016(2):1-7.
[24]吉莉,李家启,李强,等.气候变化对北碚区蔬菜气候生产潜力影响研究[J].中国农学通报,2013(20):165-169.
[25]刘文栋,葛意活,何燕.气候变化对水稻病虫害发生发展趋势的影响[J].中国农学通报,2010,26(24):243-246.
[26]陈淡芳,丁丽佳,陈清辉.潮州市近年来气候变化特征及水稻生产对策[J].广东气象,2001(4):47-48.
[2]Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Climate Change 2007:Impacts,Adaptation and Vulnerability.Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[R].Cambridge,UK and New York,USA:IPCC,2007.
[3]周伟东,朱洁华,王艳琴,等.上海地区百年农业气候资源变化特征[J].资源科学,2008,30(5):642-647.
[4]李宁,杨洋,何士平,等.天津市西青区农业气候资源及主要农业气象灾害分析[J].现代农业科技,2015(2):232-234.
[5]刘志娟,杨晓光,王文峰,等.气候变化背景下我国东北三省农业气候资源变化特征[J].应用生态学报,2009,20(9):2199-2206.
[6]胡琦,潘学标,邵长秀,等.1961—2010年中国农业热量资源分布和变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2014,35(2):119-127.
[7]梁玉莲,韩明臣,白龙,等.中国近30年农业气候资源时空变化特征[J].干旱地区农业研究,2015,4:259-267.
[8]陈家金,陈惠,马治国,等.福建农业气候资源时空分布特征及其对农业生产的影响[J].中国农业气象,2007,28(1):1-4.
[9]赵锦,杨晓光,刘志娟,等.全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响Ⅱ.南方地区气候要素变化特征及对种植制度界限可能影响[J].中国农业科学,2010,43(9):1860-1867.
[10]李勇,杨晓光,代姝玮,等.长江中下游地区农业气候资源时空变化特征[J].应用生态学报,2010,11(11):2912-2921.
[11]叶清,杨晓光,等.气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化Ⅷ.江西省双季稻各生育期热量条件变化特征[J].应用生态学报,2011,22(8):2021-2030.
[12]艾治勇,郭夏宇,刘文祥,等.农业气候资源变化对双季稻生产的可能影响分析[J].自然资源报,2014,29(12):2089-2102.
[13]杜尧东,宋丽莉,毛慧琴,等.广东地区的气候变暖及其对农业的影响与对策[J].热带气象学报,2004,20(3):302-310.
[14]李勇,杨晓光,王文峰,等.气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化Ⅰ.华南地区农业气候资源时空变化特征[J].应用生态学报,2010(10):2605-2614.
[15]张明洁,李文韬,张京红,等.1961—2011年海南岛农业气候资源变化及影响研究[J].中国农学报,2014,30(32):232-241.
[16]曹倩,姚凤梅,林而达,等.近50年冬小麦主产区农业气候资源变化特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2011,32(2):161-166.
[17]Mann H B.Nonparametric tests against trend[J].Econometrica,1945,13(3):245-259.
[18]李湘阁,胡凝,等.实用气象统计方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2015:247-250.
[19]顾骏强,杨军.中国华南地区气候和环境变化特征及其对策[J].资源科学,2005,27(1):128-135.
[20]丁丽佳,王春林,凌良新.广东地区平均气温的时空变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2011,32(4):500-506.
[21]刘巽浩,陈阜.中国农作制[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2005:154-155.
[22]李勇,杨晓光,王文峰,等.全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响Ⅴ.气候变暖对中国热带作物种植北界和寒害风险的影响分析[J].中国农业科学,2010,43(12):2477-2484.
[23]官春云,黄璜,黄国勤,等.中国南方稻田多熟种植存在的问题及对策[J].作物杂志,2016(2):1-7.
[24]吉莉,李家启,李强,等.气候变化对北碚区蔬菜气候生产潜力影响研究[J].中国农学通报,2013(20):165-169.
[25]刘文栋,葛意活,何燕.气候变化对水稻病虫害发生发展趋势的影响[J].中国农学通报,2010,26(24):243-246.
[26]陈淡芳,丁丽佳,陈清辉.潮州市近年来气候变化特征及水稻生产对策[J].广东气象,2001(4):47-48.