基于Mann-Kendall方法的大凌河中上游1956—2016年降水变化特性分析
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摘要
采用Mann-Kendall方法对大凌河中上游近61年降水变化及突变特征进行分析。结果表明:(1)大凌河中上游年降水总体呈现弱递减变化,递减变化均未通过90%的显著性检验,中游朝阳站以上非汛期降水递减明显,通过90%的显著性检验;(2)大凌河上游夏季降水呈现下降变化,但春、秋季降水递增趋势明显,均通过90%的显著性检验,递增率分别为14. 6 mm/10a及41. 7 mm/10a,中游在春季递增明显,递增率为14. 5 mm/10a,其他季节变化趋势均较弱;(3)中上游年降水突变特征较为一致,1960、1980、1990、2000年为其降水的4个主要突变点,2000年以后降水突变特征点明显增多,汛期降水突变和年降水突变较为一致,但中游在非汛期突变特征点较少,仅在1960年出现突变。
The Mann-Kendall method is used to analyze the changes of precipitation and mutations in the upper and middle reaches of the Daling River in the past 61 years. The results show that:(1)The annual precipitation in the middle and upper reaches of the Dalinghe River generally shows a weak decline, and the decreasing changes have not passed the 90% significance test. The precipitationin the middle reaches in the non-flood season is decreasing, and the changes have passed 90% significance test;(2)The precipitation in the upper reaches shows a downward change in summer, but the increasing trend of precipitation in spring and autumn is obvious. Both of them have passed the 95% significance test. The increase rates are 14. 6 mm/10 a and 41. 7 mm/10 a respectively. The middle reaches increases significantly in spring, and the increase rate is 14. 5 mm/10 a, other seasonal trends are weak;(3)The characteristics of annual precipitation in the upper and middle reaches are relatively consistent. The year of 1960, 1980, 1990 and 2000 were the four main catastrophe points of precipitation. After 2000, the catastrophe points were increased significantly, Precipitation changes in the flood season are similar to the annual precipitation, but there are few feature points in the midstream during the non-flood season, and catastrophe only occurred in 1960 year.
The Mann-Kendall method is used to analyze the changes of precipitation and mutations in the upper and middle reaches of the Daling River in the past 61 years. The results show that:(1)The annual precipitation in the middle and upper reaches of the Dalinghe River generally shows a weak decline, and the decreasing changes have not passed the 90% significance test. The precipitationin the middle reaches in the non-flood season is decreasing, and the changes have passed 90% significance test;(2)The precipitation in the upper reaches shows a downward change in summer, but the increasing trend of precipitation in spring and autumn is obvious. Both of them have passed the 95% significance test. The increase rates are 14. 6 mm/10 a and 41. 7 mm/10 a respectively. The middle reaches increases significantly in spring, and the increase rate is 14. 5 mm/10 a, other seasonal trends are weak;(3)The characteristics of annual precipitation in the upper and middle reaches are relatively consistent. The year of 1960, 1980, 1990 and 2000 were the four main catastrophe points of precipitation. After 2000, the catastrophe points were increased significantly, Precipitation changes in the flood season are similar to the annual precipitation, but there are few feature points in the midstream during the non-flood season, and catastrophe only occurred in 1960 year.
引文
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[3]MANN M E,BRADLEY R S,HUGHESS M K. Global-scale Temperature Patterns and Climate Forcing-over the Past six Centuries[J]. Nature,1998,392:787-799.
[4]刘政鸿.陕西省近50年来降水量时空变化特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(02):107-112.
[5]陆志华,夏自强,于岚岚,等. 1958—2009年松花江流域降水时空演变特征[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(06):990-1000.
[6]刘叶玲,翟晓丽,郑爱勤.关中盆地降水量变化趋势的MannKendall分析[J].人民黄河,2012,34(02):28-30+33.
[7]郭小芹,刘明春,钱莉,等.从Mann-Kendall特征看石羊河流域降水量的演变规律[J].干旱区地理,2010,33(04):593-599.
[8]康淑媛,张勃,柳景峰,等.基于Mann-Kendall法的张掖市降水量时空分布规律分析[J].资源科学,2009,31(03):501-508.
[9]师战伟.基于水文模型的大凌河流域综合干旱指数研究[J].水利规划与设计,2016(04):48-51.
[10]赵春雨.辽宁省近50年气候变化特征及影响因子研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2006.