1988—2016年新疆工业技术进步偏向测算及分析
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摘要
新疆正处于以创新驱动发展推进工业转型升级的战略机遇期,为了探究工业技术变迁机理及其收入分配效应,利用包含要素增强型技术进步项的CES生产函数构建标准化供给面系统,借助STATA 15. 0软件考察1988—2016年新疆工业技术进步偏向及其成因。结果显示:资本深化使新疆工业技术进步总体上偏向劳动,在人力资本积累不足背景下,也加剧了资本对非熟练、低技能劳动的替代性,使技术进步呈现就业挤出效应,粗放型投资增长方式还引发资本生产效率的相对下降,进而使技术进步表现为劳动增强型。
The industrial economy of Xinjiang is in a period of strategic opportunities for transformation and upgrading promoted by innovation-driven development. It is a practical topic to reveal the mechanism of industrial technology change and its income distribution effect with Xinjiang characteristics. So,based on time series data from 1988 to 2016,this paper measured and analyzed Xinjiang's industrial biased technical progress and the causes using the normalized supply-side system estimation approach. In recent 30 years,Xinjiang's industrial technical progress is generally biased to labor owing to capital deepening. Under the background of insufficient accumulation of human capital,the substitution of capital to unskilled and low-skilled labor is aggravated,which triggers the crowding-out effect of technical progress on employment. Extensive investment growth also leads to a relative decline in capital productivity,then resulting that Xinjiang's industrial technical progress is labor-intensive.
The industrial economy of Xinjiang is in a period of strategic opportunities for transformation and upgrading promoted by innovation-driven development. It is a practical topic to reveal the mechanism of industrial technology change and its income distribution effect with Xinjiang characteristics. So,based on time series data from 1988 to 2016,this paper measured and analyzed Xinjiang's industrial biased technical progress and the causes using the normalized supply-side system estimation approach. In recent 30 years,Xinjiang's industrial technical progress is generally biased to labor owing to capital deepening. Under the background of insufficient accumulation of human capital,the substitution of capital to unskilled and low-skilled labor is aggravated,which triggers the crowding-out effect of technical progress on employment. Extensive investment growth also leads to a relative decline in capital productivity,then resulting that Xinjiang's industrial technical progress is labor-intensive.
引文
[1] BLANCHARD O J,NORDHAUS W D,PHELPS E S. The Medium Run[J]. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,1997,28(2):89-158.
[2]钟世川,雷钦礼.技术进步偏向对要素收入份额的影响——基于中国工业行业数据的研究[J].产经评论,2013,4(5):16-27.
[3] HICKS J R. The Theory of Wages[M]. London:Palgrave Macmillan,1932.
[4] HAYAMI Y,RUTTAN V W. Agricultural Development:An International Perspective[M]. Maryland:The Johns Hopkins University Press,1985.
[5] BASU S,WEIL D N. Appropriate Technology and Growth[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1998,113(4):1025-1054.
[6] ACEMOGLU D. Directed Technical Change[J]. Review of Economic Studies,2002,69(4):781-810.
[7] ACEMOGLU D. Equilibrium Bias of Technology[J]. Econometrica,2007,75(5):1371-1409.
[8] ACEMOGLU D,ZILBOTTI F. Productivity Differences[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2001,116(2):563-606.
[9]曾刚.技术扩散与区域经济发展[J].地域研究与开发,2002,21(3):38-41.
[10]易信,刘凤良.中国技术进步偏向资本的原因探析[J].上海经济研究,2013,25(10):13-21.
[11]徐莹莹,李平.要素价格扭曲与中国技术进步方向[J].中国科技论坛,2017,33(8):12-19.
[12]雷钦礼.技术进步偏向、资本效率与劳动收入份额变化[J].经济与管理研究,2012,33(12):15-24.
[13]董直庆,戴杰,陈锐.技术进步方向及其劳动收入分配效应检验[J].上海财经大学学报,2013,15(5):65-72.
[14]苏永照.技术进步偏向对中国劳动力市场的影响[J].财贸研究,2010,31(1):17-23.
[15]钟世川.技术进步偏向、劳动力结构与行业工资差距[J].经济经纬,2015,32(4):97-102.
[16] ANTONELLI C,QUATRARO F. The Effects of Biased Technological Change on Total Factor Productivity:Emprical Evidence from A Sample of OECD Countries[J].The Journal of Technology Transfer,2010,35(4):361-383.
[17]钟世川.技术进步偏向与中国工业行业全要素生产率增长[J].经济学家,2014,26(7):46-54.
[18] SONG M,WANG S. Can Employment Structure Promote Environment-biased Technical Progress?[J]. Technological Forecasting&Social Change,2016,112:285-292.
[19] LEóN-LEDESMA M A,MCADAM P,WILLIAM A. In Dubio Pro CES:Supply Estimation with Misspecified Technical-change[R]. Germany:European Central Bank Working Paper Series No. 1175,2010.
[20] KLUMP R,MCADAM P,WILLMAN A. Factor Substitution and Factor-augmenting Technical Progress in the US:A Normalized Supply-side System Approach[J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics,2007,89(1):183-192.
[21] KLUMP R,MCADAM P,WILLMAN A. Unwrapping Some Euro Area Growth Puzzles:Factor Substitution,Productivity and Unemployment[J]. Journal of Macroeconomics,2008,30(2):645-666.
[22] SATO R,MORITA T. Quantity or Quality:The Impact of Labor Saving Innovation on US and Japanese Growth Rates:1960—2004[J]. The Japanese Economic Review,2009,60(4):407-430.
[23]戴天仕,徐现祥.中国的技术进步方向[J].世界经济,2010,33(1):54-70.
[24]钟世川,刘岳平.中国工业技术进步偏向研究[J].云南财经大学学报,2014,29(2):64-73.
[25]张永恒,郝寿义.技术进步率差异下的中国制造业集聚——基于新经济地理学的分析[J].地域研究与开发,2016,35(5):7-11.
[26]李太龙,朱曼,王志斌.长三角地区技术进步偏向的测算与分析[J].浙江理工大学学报(社会科学版),2015,34(5):363-370.
[27]佚名.科技部、国家发改委批复支持新疆开展丝绸之路经济带核心区创新驱动发展试验[N].新疆日报,2017-11-30(A01).
[28]陈晓玲,连玉君.资本-劳动替代弹性与地区经济增长——德拉格兰德维尔假说的检验[J].经济学(季刊),2012,12(1):93-118.
[29]张月玲,林锋.中国区域要素替代弹性变迁及其增长效应——基于异质劳动视角的随机前沿生产函数分析[J].财经研究,2017,43(6):118-131.
[30]赵珍.新疆人力资本存量分析——基于基尼系数和泰尔指数方法[J].新疆社会科学,2016,36(2):45-50.
[31]王燕,巴合提努尔,李秀花,等.新疆丝绸之路经济带核心区职业教育与区域经济协调发展分析[J].职业技术教育,2017,38(23):18-21.
[32]赵强,赵磊.西北少数民族地区劳动力文化素质状况分析——以新疆为例[J].西南民族大学学报,2016,38(6):35-40.
[33]赵珍.就业视角下的新疆人力资本配置[J].克拉玛依学刊,2015,5(5):41-47.
[34]朱轶,曾春琼.中国工业的资本深化与技术进步偏向是否互为关联——基于省际面板数据的实证检验[J].现代财经,2016,36(9):49-63.
[35]朱轶,吴超林.中国工业资本深化的区域特征与就业效应——兼论分权体制下资本深化态势的应对[J].南开经济研究,2010,26(5):125-139.
[2]钟世川,雷钦礼.技术进步偏向对要素收入份额的影响——基于中国工业行业数据的研究[J].产经评论,2013,4(5):16-27.
[3] HICKS J R. The Theory of Wages[M]. London:Palgrave Macmillan,1932.
[4] HAYAMI Y,RUTTAN V W. Agricultural Development:An International Perspective[M]. Maryland:The Johns Hopkins University Press,1985.
[5] BASU S,WEIL D N. Appropriate Technology and Growth[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1998,113(4):1025-1054.
[6] ACEMOGLU D. Directed Technical Change[J]. Review of Economic Studies,2002,69(4):781-810.
[7] ACEMOGLU D. Equilibrium Bias of Technology[J]. Econometrica,2007,75(5):1371-1409.
[8] ACEMOGLU D,ZILBOTTI F. Productivity Differences[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2001,116(2):563-606.
[9]曾刚.技术扩散与区域经济发展[J].地域研究与开发,2002,21(3):38-41.
[10]易信,刘凤良.中国技术进步偏向资本的原因探析[J].上海经济研究,2013,25(10):13-21.
[11]徐莹莹,李平.要素价格扭曲与中国技术进步方向[J].中国科技论坛,2017,33(8):12-19.
[12]雷钦礼.技术进步偏向、资本效率与劳动收入份额变化[J].经济与管理研究,2012,33(12):15-24.
[13]董直庆,戴杰,陈锐.技术进步方向及其劳动收入分配效应检验[J].上海财经大学学报,2013,15(5):65-72.
[14]苏永照.技术进步偏向对中国劳动力市场的影响[J].财贸研究,2010,31(1):17-23.
[15]钟世川.技术进步偏向、劳动力结构与行业工资差距[J].经济经纬,2015,32(4):97-102.
[16] ANTONELLI C,QUATRARO F. The Effects of Biased Technological Change on Total Factor Productivity:Emprical Evidence from A Sample of OECD Countries[J].The Journal of Technology Transfer,2010,35(4):361-383.
[17]钟世川.技术进步偏向与中国工业行业全要素生产率增长[J].经济学家,2014,26(7):46-54.
[18] SONG M,WANG S. Can Employment Structure Promote Environment-biased Technical Progress?[J]. Technological Forecasting&Social Change,2016,112:285-292.
[19] LEóN-LEDESMA M A,MCADAM P,WILLIAM A. In Dubio Pro CES:Supply Estimation with Misspecified Technical-change[R]. Germany:European Central Bank Working Paper Series No. 1175,2010.
[20] KLUMP R,MCADAM P,WILLMAN A. Factor Substitution and Factor-augmenting Technical Progress in the US:A Normalized Supply-side System Approach[J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics,2007,89(1):183-192.
[21] KLUMP R,MCADAM P,WILLMAN A. Unwrapping Some Euro Area Growth Puzzles:Factor Substitution,Productivity and Unemployment[J]. Journal of Macroeconomics,2008,30(2):645-666.
[22] SATO R,MORITA T. Quantity or Quality:The Impact of Labor Saving Innovation on US and Japanese Growth Rates:1960—2004[J]. The Japanese Economic Review,2009,60(4):407-430.
[23]戴天仕,徐现祥.中国的技术进步方向[J].世界经济,2010,33(1):54-70.
[24]钟世川,刘岳平.中国工业技术进步偏向研究[J].云南财经大学学报,2014,29(2):64-73.
[25]张永恒,郝寿义.技术进步率差异下的中国制造业集聚——基于新经济地理学的分析[J].地域研究与开发,2016,35(5):7-11.
[26]李太龙,朱曼,王志斌.长三角地区技术进步偏向的测算与分析[J].浙江理工大学学报(社会科学版),2015,34(5):363-370.
[27]佚名.科技部、国家发改委批复支持新疆开展丝绸之路经济带核心区创新驱动发展试验[N].新疆日报,2017-11-30(A01).
[28]陈晓玲,连玉君.资本-劳动替代弹性与地区经济增长——德拉格兰德维尔假说的检验[J].经济学(季刊),2012,12(1):93-118.
[29]张月玲,林锋.中国区域要素替代弹性变迁及其增长效应——基于异质劳动视角的随机前沿生产函数分析[J].财经研究,2017,43(6):118-131.
[30]赵珍.新疆人力资本存量分析——基于基尼系数和泰尔指数方法[J].新疆社会科学,2016,36(2):45-50.
[31]王燕,巴合提努尔,李秀花,等.新疆丝绸之路经济带核心区职业教育与区域经济协调发展分析[J].职业技术教育,2017,38(23):18-21.
[32]赵强,赵磊.西北少数民族地区劳动力文化素质状况分析——以新疆为例[J].西南民族大学学报,2016,38(6):35-40.
[33]赵珍.就业视角下的新疆人力资本配置[J].克拉玛依学刊,2015,5(5):41-47.
[34]朱轶,曾春琼.中国工业的资本深化与技术进步偏向是否互为关联——基于省际面板数据的实证检验[J].现代财经,2016,36(9):49-63.
[35]朱轶,吴超林.中国工业资本深化的区域特征与就业效应——兼论分权体制下资本深化态势的应对[J].南开经济研究,2010,26(5):125-139.