台湾东北部海域海表温度季节与年际异常及其对历史气候重建的启示
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摘要
SST(海洋表层温度,sea surface temperature)的季节与年际异常对于认识现代全球变暖、重建历史时期气候变化以及探讨气候变化机制具有重要意义,而台湾东北部海域SST季节与年际异常的研究却相对较少.为更好地理解现代全球变暖和历史气候变化,利用NOAA的全球海表温度最优插值资料、Hadley中心的全球海表温度数据以及MEI逐月指数,分析了现代全球变暖背景下台湾东北部海域SST季节与年际异常及其控制因素.季节尺度上,受东亚冬季风的影响,研究海区的冬季SST变化比夏季更为剧烈,冬季SST控制着该海域年均SST和SST季节性的变化.现代器测和古气候记录表明该现象在年际-百年尺度上可能一直存在.年际尺度上,SST异常与MEI指数存在显著的8个月滞后相关性,ENSO(厄尔尼诺—南方涛动,El Ni1o-Southern Oscillation)事件通过东亚冬季风来影响研究海域的SST变化.在历史气候重建中区分气候变化的多尺度性和替代指标的季节性、认识历史气候对ENSO及东亚冬季风的响应特征和机制,这将有助于进一步理解现代全球气候变暖的原因.
Seasonal and inter-annual anomalies of sea surface temperature(SST)are very important for recognizing modern global warming,reconstructing historical climate changes and discussing mechanisms of climate changes.However,the related researches of SST offshore northeastern Taiwan are not enough.Based on NOAA's monthly SST data,monthly SST data from Hadley Center and monthly Multivariate ENSO Index(MEI),the seasonal and inter-annual anomalies of SST and their influencing factors offshore northeastern Taiwan under the background of modern global warming are analyzed in order to further understand modern global warming and historical climate changes.On seasonal timescales,winter SST always displays greatervariation range than summer SST,and its influence on the annual mean SST and SST seasonality is more serious,which could be contributed to the effects of East Asian Winter Monsoon(EAWM).Modern instrumental data and paleoclimate records show that greater variabilities of winter SST than summer SST possibly also exist on the inter-annual-centennial timescales.On inter-annual timescales,the SST anomalies offshore northeastern Taiwan exhibit a good lag correlation to MEI Index indicating the significant effect of ENSO on SST anomalies through the robust role of EAWM.It is crucial to distinguish the different multi-scales of climate change and seasonal explanations of temperature proxies when reconstructing the past temperature variation.And,insight to the responses of historical climate to ENSO and EAWM would be helpful to further understand the cause of modern global warming.
Seasonal and inter-annual anomalies of sea surface temperature(SST)are very important for recognizing modern global warming,reconstructing historical climate changes and discussing mechanisms of climate changes.However,the related researches of SST offshore northeastern Taiwan are not enough.Based on NOAA's monthly SST data,monthly SST data from Hadley Center and monthly Multivariate ENSO Index(MEI),the seasonal and inter-annual anomalies of SST and their influencing factors offshore northeastern Taiwan under the background of modern global warming are analyzed in order to further understand modern global warming and historical climate changes.On seasonal timescales,winter SST always displays greatervariation range than summer SST,and its influence on the annual mean SST and SST seasonality is more serious,which could be contributed to the effects of East Asian Winter Monsoon(EAWM).Modern instrumental data and paleoclimate records show that greater variabilities of winter SST than summer SST possibly also exist on the inter-annual-centennial timescales.On inter-annual timescales,the SST anomalies offshore northeastern Taiwan exhibit a good lag correlation to MEI Index indicating the significant effect of ENSO on SST anomalies through the robust role of EAWM.It is crucial to distinguish the different multi-scales of climate change and seasonal explanations of temperature proxies when reconstructing the past temperature variation.And,insight to the responses of historical climate to ENSO and EAWM would be helpful to further understand the cause of modern global warming.
引文
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Qin,Z.K.,Sun,Z.B.,2006.Influence of Abnormal East Asian Winter Monsoon on the Northwestern Pacific Sea Temperature.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,30(2):257-267(in Chinese with English abstract).
Qu,T.D.,Du,Y.,Stachan,J.,et al.,2005.Sea Surface Temperature and Its Variability in the Indonesian Region.Oceanography,18(4):50-61.https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2005.05
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