1975-2015年洪泽湖水沙变化趋势及成因分析
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摘要
淮河流域洪涝灾害频繁,洪泽湖对其防洪除涝起关键性作用。掌握洪泽湖水沙变化趋势及突变点对流域水资源管理、水沙调节有重要的现实意义。利用入、出洪泽湖各支流代表水文站1975-2015年实测年径流量和年输沙量数据,分析入、出洪泽湖水量和沙量分布特征。通过Mann-Kendall(M-K)秩相关检验法和Pettitt突变点识别法研究入湖、出湖水沙量年际变化趋势和突变点。在此基础上,从流域降雨、水资源开发利用和水库滞沙三个方面分析了洪泽湖水沙变化的主要影响因素。研究表明:洪泽湖入湖、出湖水量年际变化趋势一致,无明显减小趋势,且无显著突变点。入湖沙量有小幅减小趋势,出湖沙量M-K统计值超过95%显著性水平,有明显减小趋势。入湖、出湖沙量发生突变的年份为1991年。对影响因素的分析得到:降雨量变化是水量变化的重要影响因素。1993-2015年,入湖水量呈不明显减小趋势则与流域用水量明显增加、水资源开发利用程度不断提高有关。上游水库建设是导致洪泽湖沙量有明显减小趋势的主要原因,1991年治淮工程的实施,水库复建和水土保持等措施是沙量突变的主要原因。
The flood disasters are frequent in the Huaihe River Basin,and Hongze Lake plays a key role in flood control.It is ofgreat practical significance for water resources management,streamflow and sediment regulation to detect the trend and changing points of streamflow and sediment in the Hongze Lake.The temporal characteristics of streamflow and sediment in the Hongze Lake were investigated with observed annual streamflow and sediment discharge data at representative hydrological stations from 1975 to 2015.The Mann-Kendall trend test and the Pettit change point detection method were used to explore temporal trend and changing points of streamflow and sediment.The main influencing factors of streamflow and sediment changes in the Hongze Lake were identified from the aspects of river water resources development and utilization,basin rainfall and sediment retaining of reservoir.The research showed that the annual variations of inflows and outflows of the Hongze Lake was consistent,and there was not statistically significant trend or changing point.There was a slight and insignificant decreasing trend for the amount of sediment inflows at 0.05 significance level,but a statistically significant decreasing trend for the sediment outflows.Sediment inflows and outflows both had a changing point in 1991.Rainfall was the most important factor affecting the variation of streamflow.The streamflow showed a decreasing trend from 1993 to 2015,which was related to the increasing development and utilization of water resources in the basin.Decrease in sediment was mainly from the upstream reservoirconstructions.The main reasons for the changing points were the engineering projects of the Huaihe River started in 1991,which included the reconstruction of reservoirs and conservation countermeasures of water and soil.
The flood disasters are frequent in the Huaihe River Basin,and Hongze Lake plays a key role in flood control.It is ofgreat practical significance for water resources management,streamflow and sediment regulation to detect the trend and changing points of streamflow and sediment in the Hongze Lake.The temporal characteristics of streamflow and sediment in the Hongze Lake were investigated with observed annual streamflow and sediment discharge data at representative hydrological stations from 1975 to 2015.The Mann-Kendall trend test and the Pettit change point detection method were used to explore temporal trend and changing points of streamflow and sediment.The main influencing factors of streamflow and sediment changes in the Hongze Lake were identified from the aspects of river water resources development and utilization,basin rainfall and sediment retaining of reservoir.The research showed that the annual variations of inflows and outflows of the Hongze Lake was consistent,and there was not statistically significant trend or changing point.There was a slight and insignificant decreasing trend for the amount of sediment inflows at 0.05 significance level,but a statistically significant decreasing trend for the sediment outflows.Sediment inflows and outflows both had a changing point in 1991.Rainfall was the most important factor affecting the variation of streamflow.The streamflow showed a decreasing trend from 1993 to 2015,which was related to the increasing development and utilization of water resources in the basin.Decrease in sediment was mainly from the upstream reservoirconstructions.The main reasons for the changing points were the engineering projects of the Huaihe River started in 1991,which included the reconstruction of reservoirs and conservation countermeasures of water and soil.
引文
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[8]虞邦义,郁玉锁.洪泽湖泥沙淤积分析.泥沙研究,2010(6):38-43.(YU B Y,YU Y S.Sediment deposition in Hongze Lake[J].Journal of Sediment Research,2010(6):38-43(in Chinese))DOI:10.16239/j.cnki.0468-155x.2010.06.005.
[9]齐凌艳,黄佳聪,高俊峰,等.洪泽湖叶绿素a浓度的时空变化特征[J].湖泊科学,2016,28(3):583-591.(QI LY,HUANG J C,GAO J F,et al.Spatial-temporal variation characteristics of chlorophyll-a concentration in Lake Hongze[J].Journal of Lake Sciences,2016,28(3):583-591.(in Chinese))DOI:10.18307/2016.0314.
[10]邓恒,徐国宾,段宇,等.淮河与洪泽湖河湖关系研究进展及展望[J].水资源与水工程学报,2018,29(5):139-144.(DENG H,XU G B,DUAN Y,et al.Research progress and prospects of the relationship between Huaihe River and Hongze Lake[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2018,29(5):139-144.(in Chinese))
[11]DONALD H B,MOHAMED A H E.Detection of hydrologic trends and variability[J].Journal of Hydrology,2002,55:107-122.
[12]OMAR I A A,DONALD H B.Trends and variability in the hydrological regime of the Mackenzie River Basin[J].Journal of Hydrology,2006,319:282-294.
[13]高伟,陈岩,徐敏,等.抚仙湖水质变化(1980-2011年)趋势与驱动力分析[J].湖泊科学,2013,25(5):635-642.(GAO W,CHEN Y,XU M et al.Trend and driving factors of water quality change in Lake Fuxian(1980-2011)[J].Journal of Lake Sciences,2013,25(5):635-642.(in Chinese))DOI:10.18307/2013.0503.
[14]杨雪,杨东,安丽娜,等.1961-2013年吉林省气温与降水变化特征[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(29):139-146.(YANG X,YANG D,AN L N,et al.Variation characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Jilin From 1961to 2013[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2016,32(29):139-146.(in Chinese))
[15]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第2版)[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.(WEI F Y.Modern climate statistical diagnosis and prediction technology(Second Edition)[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2007.(in Chinese))
[16]李文文,傅旭东,吴文强,等.黄河下游水沙突变特征分析[J].水力发电学报,2014,33(1):108-113.(LI W W,FU X D,WU W Q,et al.Study on runoff and sediment process variation in the lower Yellow River[J].J Hydroelectr Eng,2014,33(1):108-113.(in Chinese))
[17]史红玲,胡春宏,王延贵,等.淮河流域水沙变化趋势及其成因分析[J].水利学报,2012,43(5):571-579.(SHIH L,HU C H,WANG Y G,et al.Multi-objective reservoir regulation model based on simulation rules and intelligent optimization and its application[J].(in Chinese))DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.2012.05.007.
[18]罗蔚,张翔,邓志民,等.1956-2008年鄱阳湖流域水沙输移趋势及成因分析[J].水科学进展,2014,25(5):658-667.(LUO W,ZHANG X,DENG Z M,et al.Runoff and sediment load transport and cause analysis in Poyang Lake basin over the period 1956-2008[J].Advances in Water Science,2014,25(5):658-667(in Chinese))DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2014.05.008.
[19]孙鹏,孙玉燕,张强,等.淮河流域径流过程变化时空特征及成因[J].湖泊科学,2018,30(2):497-508.(SUN P,SUN Y Y,ZHANG Q,et al.Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of runoff processes and its causes in Huaihe Basin[J].Journal of Lake Sciences,2018,30(2):497-508.(in Chinese))DOI10.18307/2018.0221.
[20]陈峪,高歌,任国玉,等.中国十大流域近40多年降水量时空变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2005,20(5):637-643.(CHEN Y,GAO G,REN G Y,et al.Spatial and temporal variation of precipitation over ten Major Basins in China between 1956and 2000[J].Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research,2005,20(5):637-643.(in Chinese))
[21]王珂清,曾燕,谢志清,等.1961-2008年淮河流域气温和降水变化趋势[J].气象科学,2012,32(6):671-677.(WANG K Q,ZENG Y,XIE Z Q,et al.Change trend of temperature and precipitation in Huaihe River Basin from 1961to 2008[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2012,32(6):671-677.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/2012jms.0061.
[22]楚恩国.洪泽湖水资源现状分析及对策[J].中国水利,2007(23):33-35.(CHU E G.Analysis and countermeasures of water resources in Hongze Lake[J].China Water Resources,2007(23):33-35.(in Chinese))
[23]蒋艳,彭期冬,骆辉煌,等.淮河流域水质污染时空变异特征分析[J].水利学报,2011,42(11):1283-1288.(JIANG Y,PENG Q D,LUO H H,et al.Analysis of spatial and temporal variation of water quality in Huaihe River Basin[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2011,42(11):1283-1288.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.2011.11.010.
[2]叶正伟.近60年洪泽湖流域汛期降水特征及其与EASM关系[J].地理科学,2012,32(11):1358-1363.(YE Z W.Precipitation change in flood season and its relationship with EASM in the Hongze Lake catchments in recent 60years[J].Scientia Geogrsphica Sinica,2012,32(11):1358-1363.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.11.019.
[3]叶正伟,李宗花.1951年来洪泽湖流域面雨量变化特征与趋势分析[J].长江流域资源与环境2010,19(12):1392-1396.(YE Z W,LI Z H.Characteristics and trends of areal precipitation in the Hongze Lake catachment since 1951[J].Resour Environ Yangtze Basin.2010,19(12):1392-1396.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.11.019.
[4]李波,濮培民.淮河流域及洪泽湖水质的演变趋势分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2003,12(1):67-73.(LI B,PU PM.Study on the evolution tendency of water quality in Huaihe River basin and Hongze Lake[J].Resour Environ Yangtze Basin.2003,12(1):67-73.(in Chinese))
[5]宋玉,李致家,杨涛.分布式水文模型在淮河洪泽湖以上流域洪水预报中的应用[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2006,34(2):127-131.(SONG Y,LI Z J,Yang T.Application of distributed hydrological model to flood forecasting for upper reaches of the Huaihe River above Hongze Lake[J].Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences).2006,34(2):127-131.(in Chinese))
[6]姜加虎,袁静秀.洪泽湖历史洪水分析(1736-1992年)[J].湖泊科学,1997(3):231-236.(JIANG J H,YUAN J X.Analysis on the historical flood of Hongze Lake(1736-1992)[J].Journal of Lake Sciences,1997(3):231-236.(in Chinese))
[7]楚恩国.洪泽湖流域水文特征分析.水科学与工程技术[J].2008(3):22-25.(CHU E G.Analysis of hydrological characteristics of Hongze Lake Basin[J].Water Sciences and Engineering Technology,2008(3):22-25.(in Chinese))
[8]虞邦义,郁玉锁.洪泽湖泥沙淤积分析.泥沙研究,2010(6):38-43.(YU B Y,YU Y S.Sediment deposition in Hongze Lake[J].Journal of Sediment Research,2010(6):38-43(in Chinese))DOI:10.16239/j.cnki.0468-155x.2010.06.005.
[9]齐凌艳,黄佳聪,高俊峰,等.洪泽湖叶绿素a浓度的时空变化特征[J].湖泊科学,2016,28(3):583-591.(QI LY,HUANG J C,GAO J F,et al.Spatial-temporal variation characteristics of chlorophyll-a concentration in Lake Hongze[J].Journal of Lake Sciences,2016,28(3):583-591.(in Chinese))DOI:10.18307/2016.0314.
[10]邓恒,徐国宾,段宇,等.淮河与洪泽湖河湖关系研究进展及展望[J].水资源与水工程学报,2018,29(5):139-144.(DENG H,XU G B,DUAN Y,et al.Research progress and prospects of the relationship between Huaihe River and Hongze Lake[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2018,29(5):139-144.(in Chinese))
[11]DONALD H B,MOHAMED A H E.Detection of hydrologic trends and variability[J].Journal of Hydrology,2002,55:107-122.
[12]OMAR I A A,DONALD H B.Trends and variability in the hydrological regime of the Mackenzie River Basin[J].Journal of Hydrology,2006,319:282-294.
[13]高伟,陈岩,徐敏,等.抚仙湖水质变化(1980-2011年)趋势与驱动力分析[J].湖泊科学,2013,25(5):635-642.(GAO W,CHEN Y,XU M et al.Trend and driving factors of water quality change in Lake Fuxian(1980-2011)[J].Journal of Lake Sciences,2013,25(5):635-642.(in Chinese))DOI:10.18307/2013.0503.
[14]杨雪,杨东,安丽娜,等.1961-2013年吉林省气温与降水变化特征[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(29):139-146.(YANG X,YANG D,AN L N,et al.Variation characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Jilin From 1961to 2013[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2016,32(29):139-146.(in Chinese))
[15]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第2版)[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.(WEI F Y.Modern climate statistical diagnosis and prediction technology(Second Edition)[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2007.(in Chinese))
[16]李文文,傅旭东,吴文强,等.黄河下游水沙突变特征分析[J].水力发电学报,2014,33(1):108-113.(LI W W,FU X D,WU W Q,et al.Study on runoff and sediment process variation in the lower Yellow River[J].J Hydroelectr Eng,2014,33(1):108-113.(in Chinese))
[17]史红玲,胡春宏,王延贵,等.淮河流域水沙变化趋势及其成因分析[J].水利学报,2012,43(5):571-579.(SHIH L,HU C H,WANG Y G,et al.Multi-objective reservoir regulation model based on simulation rules and intelligent optimization and its application[J].(in Chinese))DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.2012.05.007.
[18]罗蔚,张翔,邓志民,等.1956-2008年鄱阳湖流域水沙输移趋势及成因分析[J].水科学进展,2014,25(5):658-667.(LUO W,ZHANG X,DENG Z M,et al.Runoff and sediment load transport and cause analysis in Poyang Lake basin over the period 1956-2008[J].Advances in Water Science,2014,25(5):658-667(in Chinese))DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2014.05.008.
[19]孙鹏,孙玉燕,张强,等.淮河流域径流过程变化时空特征及成因[J].湖泊科学,2018,30(2):497-508.(SUN P,SUN Y Y,ZHANG Q,et al.Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of runoff processes and its causes in Huaihe Basin[J].Journal of Lake Sciences,2018,30(2):497-508.(in Chinese))DOI10.18307/2018.0221.
[20]陈峪,高歌,任国玉,等.中国十大流域近40多年降水量时空变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2005,20(5):637-643.(CHEN Y,GAO G,REN G Y,et al.Spatial and temporal variation of precipitation over ten Major Basins in China between 1956and 2000[J].Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research,2005,20(5):637-643.(in Chinese))
[21]王珂清,曾燕,谢志清,等.1961-2008年淮河流域气温和降水变化趋势[J].气象科学,2012,32(6):671-677.(WANG K Q,ZENG Y,XIE Z Q,et al.Change trend of temperature and precipitation in Huaihe River Basin from 1961to 2008[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2012,32(6):671-677.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/2012jms.0061.
[22]楚恩国.洪泽湖水资源现状分析及对策[J].中国水利,2007(23):33-35.(CHU E G.Analysis and countermeasures of water resources in Hongze Lake[J].China Water Resources,2007(23):33-35.(in Chinese))
[23]蒋艳,彭期冬,骆辉煌,等.淮河流域水质污染时空变异特征分析[J].水利学报,2011,42(11):1283-1288.(JIANG Y,PENG Q D,LUO H H,et al.Analysis of spatial and temporal variation of water quality in Huaihe River Basin[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2011,42(11):1283-1288.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.2011.11.010.