中国葡萄气候区划Ⅰ:指标与方法
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摘要
随着中国葡萄(Vitis vinifera L.)与葡萄酒产业的迅速发展,葡萄栽培越来越多元化,对葡萄气候区划的精度要求越来越高.中国气候类型复杂,葡萄栽培品种多,区划难度大.以前的研究大多是针对某一区域、局部小范围区划研究较多,或是针对某一葡萄种类,还没有形成基于全国并细致到各产区的完整区划研究.由于资料获取难度大,数据处理困难,区划精度普遍不足.本研究对中国各地区、各葡萄种类区划指标进行筛选,选用生长季活动积温和无霜期作为中国葡萄气候区划的热量指标,干燥度作为水分指标,年极端低温和埋土防寒线作为辅助指标.在ArcGIS平台支持下,以中国2294个气象站点1982~2011年30年逐日气象数据和中国全境90 m分辨率数字高程模型数据为基础,采用多元逐步回归与残差插值相结合的混合插值法对气象要素进行模拟,建立了无霜期和活动积温的多元逐步回归模型.利用交叉验证法分别对不同插值方法在进行不同指标插值时的误差大小进行了对比,分别选用普通克里金法和反距离权重法对无霜期和活动积温空间回归残差进行插值.选用普通克里金法对干燥度进行空间内插,分别得到无霜期、活动积温、干燥度栅格图层.在此基础上绘制了高精度的中国葡萄气候区划图.与以往仅针对某一个葡萄品种的气候区划不同,此次中国葡萄气候区划结果中的适宜栽培区还进一步被细分为山葡萄(Vitis amurensis Rupr.)栽培区、欧亚种栽培区、欧美杂种栽培区和避雨栽培区,并根据山葡萄、欧亚种葡萄以及欧美杂种葡萄抵御极端低温的不同能力,分别绘制了埋土防寒线.本研究在前人研究的基础上对区划指标和区划方法进行了选择,对中国不同葡萄栽培种适宜区域进行了划分,区划精度高,对全国各地未来葡萄种植及相关产业发展的指导有着重要的参考价值.
With the rapid development of the grape and wine industry in China, there is an increasing demand of the breadth and precision for climatic regionalization of grape. The climate types of China are complex; the grape varieties for cultivation are plenty, so the regionalization work is difficult. Most of the previous studies mainly focused on one region or one variety, the overall grape regionalization index system is not formed yet; because the data is difficult to be obtained and processed, the regionalization has generally low accuracy. The purpose of this study is to select suitable regionalization indexes and appropriate regionalization methods to improve the accuracy of grape climatic regionalization. This study analyzed the indexes which were adopted in the grape climatic regionalization researches in various regions of China during the past 30 years and chose the active accumulated temperature in the grape growth season and the frost-free period as the heat index, the dryness index in the grape growth season as the moisture index, to establish the multivariate stepwise regression model of the frost-free period and active accumulated temperature on the basic of the meteorological data of 2294 stations in 30 years(from 1982 to 2011) and the digital elevation model(DEM) data with the resolution of 3″(90 meter) in China, and chose cross validation method to contrast the error caused by different interpolation methods. The ordinary kriging and inverse distance weighting methods were adopted to make interpolation of the spatial regression residual error of the frost-free period and the active accumulated temperature, and the ordinary kriging was chosen for the spatial interpolation of dryness index. Supported by ArcGIS, the raster layers of frost-free period, dryness index and active accumulated temperature are drawn according to the above method. The climatic regionalization map of grape with high accuracy in China was produced on this basis, the suitable cultivation area for grape in China was divided into 4 districts, they are Vitis amurensis suitable cultivation area, Vitisvinifera suitable cultivation area, Franco-American suitable cultivation area and Shelter cultivation area, and presented the suitable grape varieties for different cultivation regions and the problems which should be paid attention to. Opinions and suggestions for grape cultivation in different regions were also put forward according to the different regional characteristics. Topographic factors including elevation, slope, aspect, latitude, and longitude were taken into consideration in terms of the complex geography and distinct tridimensional variety of climate resources in China. The DEM with the resolution of 3″ was adopted in this study, more weather stations data is used, and the mixed interpolation method which combined multiple stepwise regression and residual interpolation method was also adopted in the spatial simulation of the heat indexes in the regionalization. The simulation accuracy of each meteorological factor was improved to reduce the error and make the regionalization more accurate by the introduction of dryness index. This study provided certain reference value not only to the development of grape and wine industry, but also provide scientific support for agricultural sustainable development in China.
With the rapid development of the grape and wine industry in China, there is an increasing demand of the breadth and precision for climatic regionalization of grape. The climate types of China are complex; the grape varieties for cultivation are plenty, so the regionalization work is difficult. Most of the previous studies mainly focused on one region or one variety, the overall grape regionalization index system is not formed yet; because the data is difficult to be obtained and processed, the regionalization has generally low accuracy. The purpose of this study is to select suitable regionalization indexes and appropriate regionalization methods to improve the accuracy of grape climatic regionalization. This study analyzed the indexes which were adopted in the grape climatic regionalization researches in various regions of China during the past 30 years and chose the active accumulated temperature in the grape growth season and the frost-free period as the heat index, the dryness index in the grape growth season as the moisture index, to establish the multivariate stepwise regression model of the frost-free period and active accumulated temperature on the basic of the meteorological data of 2294 stations in 30 years(from 1982 to 2011) and the digital elevation model(DEM) data with the resolution of 3″(90 meter) in China, and chose cross validation method to contrast the error caused by different interpolation methods. The ordinary kriging and inverse distance weighting methods were adopted to make interpolation of the spatial regression residual error of the frost-free period and the active accumulated temperature, and the ordinary kriging was chosen for the spatial interpolation of dryness index. Supported by ArcGIS, the raster layers of frost-free period, dryness index and active accumulated temperature are drawn according to the above method. The climatic regionalization map of grape with high accuracy in China was produced on this basis, the suitable cultivation area for grape in China was divided into 4 districts, they are Vitis amurensis suitable cultivation area, Vitisvinifera suitable cultivation area, Franco-American suitable cultivation area and Shelter cultivation area, and presented the suitable grape varieties for different cultivation regions and the problems which should be paid attention to. Opinions and suggestions for grape cultivation in different regions were also put forward according to the different regional characteristics. Topographic factors including elevation, slope, aspect, latitude, and longitude were taken into consideration in terms of the complex geography and distinct tridimensional variety of climate resources in China. The DEM with the resolution of 3″ was adopted in this study, more weather stations data is used, and the mixed interpolation method which combined multiple stepwise regression and residual interpolation method was also adopted in the spatial simulation of the heat indexes in the regionalization. The simulation accuracy of each meteorological factor was improved to reduce the error and make the regionalization more accurate by the introduction of dryness index. This study provided certain reference value not only to the development of grape and wine industry, but also provide scientific support for agricultural sustainable development in China.
引文
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