新农保对农村居民消费的影响——基于地区差异视角
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摘要
本文利用中国综合社会调查(CGSS)微观数据,并采用倾向分数配对法,基于中国八大人文地理大区差异,实证检验新型农村社会养老保险对农村居民不同类型消费的影响。研究发现:地区变量显著作用于农户参保概率,在倾向分数配对模型中,参与新农保未对农村居民家庭总消费及各类别消费有显著影响。进一步的稳健性分析发现,仅在西北地区新农保对各类别消费有显著促进作用,但从全国范围来看作用并不显著。建议:在现行的地区划分标准(东部、中部、西部)下,中央补助比例可适当调整;加大力度宣传依然必不可少;视地方经济发展速度和中央及地方财政水平,提高养老金支付水平。
Using the Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS) micro data and a propensity score matching method, the paper conducts an empirical test on the impact of New Rural Social Pension Insurance on different types of consumption of rural residents based on the differences of eight major regions of human geography in China. The study finds that regional variables have a significant effect on the probability of farmers' participation in insurance. In propensity score matching model, participation in the new rural social pension insurance does not have a significant impact on the total consumption of rural households and the consumption of various types.Further robust analysis finds that participating in the insurance promotes various expenditures in the central and northwestern China,but the effect is not significant across the country. The central region has received full subsidies from central government as well as northwestern region, but the rural consumption has not been stimulated. Therefore, it is suggested that under the current regional classification standards(eastern, central and western region), the proportion of the subsidy from the central government could be appropriately adjusted. Second, it is still necessary to publicize the policy. Third, the pension payment should be increased depending on the speed of local economic development and the fiscal level of the central and local governments.
Using the Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS) micro data and a propensity score matching method, the paper conducts an empirical test on the impact of New Rural Social Pension Insurance on different types of consumption of rural residents based on the differences of eight major regions of human geography in China. The study finds that regional variables have a significant effect on the probability of farmers' participation in insurance. In propensity score matching model, participation in the new rural social pension insurance does not have a significant impact on the total consumption of rural households and the consumption of various types.Further robust analysis finds that participating in the insurance promotes various expenditures in the central and northwestern China,but the effect is not significant across the country. The central region has received full subsidies from central government as well as northwestern region, but the rural consumption has not been stimulated. Therefore, it is suggested that under the current regional classification standards(eastern, central and western region), the proportion of the subsidy from the central government could be appropriately adjusted. Second, it is still necessary to publicize the policy. Third, the pension payment should be increased depending on the speed of local economic development and the fiscal level of the central and local governments.
引文
[1]Barro R. J. Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1974, 82,(6):1095-1117.
[2]Bose N. Raising Consumption through India’s National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme[J]. World Devel-opment,2017, 96:245-263.
[3]Feldstein M., Liebman, J. B.“Social Security”[J]. Handbook of Public Economics,2002,(4):2245~2324.
[4]Feldstein M. Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation[J]. Journal of Political E-conomy,1974, 82,(5):905-926.
[5]Gao Q., Zhai F., Yang S., et al. Does Welfare Enable Family Expenditures on Human Capital? Evidence from China[J].World Development, 2014, 64:219-231.
[6]Levenson A. R. Do Consumers Respond to Future Income Shocks? Evidence from Social Security Reform in Taiwan[J].Journal of Public Economics, 1996, 62,(3):275-295.
[7]Modigliani, F. The life cycle hypothesis of saving and intercountry differences in the saving ratio[M]//Eltis W. A., Scott M. F.G., Wolfe J N. Induction, Growth and Trade:Essays in Honour of Sir Roy Harrod. Qxford:Clarendon Press, 1970:197-225.
[8]Pecchenino R. A., Pollard P S. Dependent children and aged parents:funding education and social security in an aging economy[J]. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2002, 24,(2):145-169.
[9]白重恩,吴斌珍,金烨.中国养老保险缴费对消费和储蓄的影响[J].中国社会科学,2012,(08):48-71.
[10]范辰辰,李文.“新农保”如何影响农村居民消费——以山东省为例[J].江西财经大学学报,2015,(01):55-65.
[11]方创琳,刘海猛,罗奎,于晓华.中国人文地理综合区划[J].地理学报,2017,(02):179-196.
[12]贺立龙,姜召花.新农保的消费增进效应——基于CHARLS数据的分析[J].人口与经济,2015,(01):116-125.
[13]胡宏兵,高娜娜.城乡二元结构养老保险与农村居民消费不足[J].宏观经济研究,2017,(07):104-113.
[14]黄睿.新型农村社会养老保险对高龄农民家庭消费的影响——基于2011~2013年CHARLS数据的研究[J].经济体制改革,2016,(06):84-92.
[15]李慧,孙东升.新型农村社会养老保险对我国农民消费的影响——基于SEM的实证研究[J].经济问题,2014,(09):68-71.
[16]李涛,陈斌开.家庭固定资产、财富效应与居民消费:来自中国城镇家庭的经验证据[J].经济研究,2014,(03):62-75.
[17]田玲,刘章艳.基本养老保险能有效缓解居民消费压力感知吗?——基于中国综合社会调查(CGSS)的经验证据[J].中国软科学,2017,(01):31-40.
[18]王晓霞,孙华臣.社会保障支出对消费需求影响的实证研究[J].东岳论丛,2008,(06):47-50.
[19]王旭光.新型农村养老保险政策提升农民消费水平了吗——来自CFPS数据的实证研究[J].南方经济,2017,(01):1-12.
[20]肖攀,李连友,苏静.农村社会保障对农村居民消费影响的门槛效应与区域异质性——基于面板平滑转换模型的分析[J].软科学,2015,(06):15-18.
[21]杨继军,张二震.人口年龄结构、养老保险制度转轨对居民储蓄率的影响[J].中国社会科学,2013.(08):47-66.
[22]建华,魏欣芝.新型农村社会养老保险对农民消费水平影响的实证分析[J].消费经济,2014,(04):66-70.
[23]岳爱,杨矗,常芳,田新,史耀疆,罗仁福,易红梅.新型农村社会养老保险对家庭日常费用支出的影响[J].管理世界,2013,(08):101-108.
[24]张芳芳,陈习定,林学宏,周秝宸.“新农保”对农村居民消费的影响——基于浙江省的调查数据[J].农业经济问题,2017,(08):17-24.
[25]赵吉林,桂河清.中国家庭文化消费影响因素分析:来自CHFS的证据[J].消费经济,2014,(06):25-31.
1中国人文地理综合区划定量指标体系中考量了包括了自然要素(海拔高度、干燥度、≥10℃积温)、人口要素(常住人口、人口密度)、经济要素(人均GDP、经济密度、非农产业结构比率)、文化要素(平均受教育年限、少数民族人口比重)、交通要素(路网密度指数)、城镇化要素(城镇化率)。
2 国家统计局东中西部和东北地区划分方法:东部:北京、天津、河北、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东和海南;中部:山西、安徽、江西、河南、湖北和湖南;西部:内蒙古、广西、重庆、四川、贵州、云南、西藏、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏和新疆;东北部:辽宁、吉林和黑龙江。
3 根据国家政策规定,东部地区包括北京、天津、河北、辽宁、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东、海南11个省级行政区;中部地区包括山西、吉林、黑龙江、安徽、江西、河南、湖北、湖南8个省级行政区;西部地区包括四川、重庆、贵州、云南、西藏、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆、广西、内蒙古12个省级行政区。
4 来自社保100,网址https://www.douban.com/note/632558778/
[2]Bose N. Raising Consumption through India’s National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme[J]. World Devel-opment,2017, 96:245-263.
[3]Feldstein M., Liebman, J. B.“Social Security”[J]. Handbook of Public Economics,2002,(4):2245~2324.
[4]Feldstein M. Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation[J]. Journal of Political E-conomy,1974, 82,(5):905-926.
[5]Gao Q., Zhai F., Yang S., et al. Does Welfare Enable Family Expenditures on Human Capital? Evidence from China[J].World Development, 2014, 64:219-231.
[6]Levenson A. R. Do Consumers Respond to Future Income Shocks? Evidence from Social Security Reform in Taiwan[J].Journal of Public Economics, 1996, 62,(3):275-295.
[7]Modigliani, F. The life cycle hypothesis of saving and intercountry differences in the saving ratio[M]//Eltis W. A., Scott M. F.G., Wolfe J N. Induction, Growth and Trade:Essays in Honour of Sir Roy Harrod. Qxford:Clarendon Press, 1970:197-225.
[8]Pecchenino R. A., Pollard P S. Dependent children and aged parents:funding education and social security in an aging economy[J]. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2002, 24,(2):145-169.
[9]白重恩,吴斌珍,金烨.中国养老保险缴费对消费和储蓄的影响[J].中国社会科学,2012,(08):48-71.
[10]范辰辰,李文.“新农保”如何影响农村居民消费——以山东省为例[J].江西财经大学学报,2015,(01):55-65.
[11]方创琳,刘海猛,罗奎,于晓华.中国人文地理综合区划[J].地理学报,2017,(02):179-196.
[12]贺立龙,姜召花.新农保的消费增进效应——基于CHARLS数据的分析[J].人口与经济,2015,(01):116-125.
[13]胡宏兵,高娜娜.城乡二元结构养老保险与农村居民消费不足[J].宏观经济研究,2017,(07):104-113.
[14]黄睿.新型农村社会养老保险对高龄农民家庭消费的影响——基于2011~2013年CHARLS数据的研究[J].经济体制改革,2016,(06):84-92.
[15]李慧,孙东升.新型农村社会养老保险对我国农民消费的影响——基于SEM的实证研究[J].经济问题,2014,(09):68-71.
[16]李涛,陈斌开.家庭固定资产、财富效应与居民消费:来自中国城镇家庭的经验证据[J].经济研究,2014,(03):62-75.
[17]田玲,刘章艳.基本养老保险能有效缓解居民消费压力感知吗?——基于中国综合社会调查(CGSS)的经验证据[J].中国软科学,2017,(01):31-40.
[18]王晓霞,孙华臣.社会保障支出对消费需求影响的实证研究[J].东岳论丛,2008,(06):47-50.
[19]王旭光.新型农村养老保险政策提升农民消费水平了吗——来自CFPS数据的实证研究[J].南方经济,2017,(01):1-12.
[20]肖攀,李连友,苏静.农村社会保障对农村居民消费影响的门槛效应与区域异质性——基于面板平滑转换模型的分析[J].软科学,2015,(06):15-18.
[21]杨继军,张二震.人口年龄结构、养老保险制度转轨对居民储蓄率的影响[J].中国社会科学,2013.(08):47-66.
[22]建华,魏欣芝.新型农村社会养老保险对农民消费水平影响的实证分析[J].消费经济,2014,(04):66-70.
[23]岳爱,杨矗,常芳,田新,史耀疆,罗仁福,易红梅.新型农村社会养老保险对家庭日常费用支出的影响[J].管理世界,2013,(08):101-108.
[24]张芳芳,陈习定,林学宏,周秝宸.“新农保”对农村居民消费的影响——基于浙江省的调查数据[J].农业经济问题,2017,(08):17-24.
[25]赵吉林,桂河清.中国家庭文化消费影响因素分析:来自CHFS的证据[J].消费经济,2014,(06):25-31.
1中国人文地理综合区划定量指标体系中考量了包括了自然要素(海拔高度、干燥度、≥10℃积温)、人口要素(常住人口、人口密度)、经济要素(人均GDP、经济密度、非农产业结构比率)、文化要素(平均受教育年限、少数民族人口比重)、交通要素(路网密度指数)、城镇化要素(城镇化率)。
2 国家统计局东中西部和东北地区划分方法:东部:北京、天津、河北、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东和海南;中部:山西、安徽、江西、河南、湖北和湖南;西部:内蒙古、广西、重庆、四川、贵州、云南、西藏、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏和新疆;东北部:辽宁、吉林和黑龙江。
3 根据国家政策规定,东部地区包括北京、天津、河北、辽宁、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东、海南11个省级行政区;中部地区包括山西、吉林、黑龙江、安徽、江西、河南、湖北、湖南8个省级行政区;西部地区包括四川、重庆、贵州、云南、西藏、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆、广西、内蒙古12个省级行政区。
4 来自社保100,网址https://www.douban.com/note/632558778/