内蒙古典型草原文化遗址地区气候变化特征
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摘要
基于内蒙古成吉思汗陵、元上都和甘珠尔庙3个典型草原文化遗址地区1960—2010年32个气象站点的日值气象观测数据,利用线性倾向估计法和M-K非参数统计检验法对研究区年平均气温、年降水量、干燥度和≥10℃年积温4个气象因子的变化情况进行了比较研究。结果表明,各研究区的气候总体一致呈现暖干化趋势,3个地区51 a来的年平均气温和年积温变化均表现为上升趋势;年降水量总体都在减少,但不同年代区间变化各异。干燥度的多年变化显著性从大到小分别为成吉思汗陵遗址地区、元上都遗址地区和甘珠尔庙遗址地区。从年均气温和年降水的突变检测来看,3个遗址地区的年均气温都有突变现象,表明研究区的年均气温波动剧烈。而成吉思汗陵遗址地区的年降水未检测到突变现象,元上都和甘珠尔庙遗址地区的年降水发生了突变,说明相对于成吉思汗陵遗址地区,这2个区域降水的变化更明显;从时间序列来看,年降水的突变较年均气温要晚。
Based on the daily meteorological observation data of the years from 1960 to 2010 at 32 meteorological observation stations in the relics regions of Genghis Khan Mausoleum,Yuan Dynasty Capital and Ganggyur Temple,typical of Inner Mongolia,comparative analysis was done of variations of the four meteorological factors,i.e. annual mean temperature,annual precipitation,aridity,and annual≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature,in the regions,using the linear trend estimation method and M-K nonparametric statistical validation method. Results show that generally,the climates in the three regions tended to be warmer and more arid,and during the 51 years,annual mean temperature and annual accumulated temperature displayed a rising trend,while annual precipitation a declining one. However,the changes varied between years and between regions. In terms of significance of the change for years in aridity,the three regions followed an order of the Genghis Khan Mausoleum>Yuan Dynasty Capital>the Ganggyur Temple,while in terms of mutation in annual mean temperature and annual precipitation,all the three regions experienced mutations in annual mean temperature,indicating that annual mean temperature fluctuated drastically,while phenomena of mutation in annual precipitation were found in the Yuan Dynasty Capital region and the Ganggyur Temple region,but not in the Genghis Khan Mausoleum region,indicating that the changes in annual precipitation were more obvious in the former two regions than in the latter. In terms of chronic sequence,the mutation in annual precipitation came later than that in annual mean temperature did.
Based on the daily meteorological observation data of the years from 1960 to 2010 at 32 meteorological observation stations in the relics regions of Genghis Khan Mausoleum,Yuan Dynasty Capital and Ganggyur Temple,typical of Inner Mongolia,comparative analysis was done of variations of the four meteorological factors,i.e. annual mean temperature,annual precipitation,aridity,and annual≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature,in the regions,using the linear trend estimation method and M-K nonparametric statistical validation method. Results show that generally,the climates in the three regions tended to be warmer and more arid,and during the 51 years,annual mean temperature and annual accumulated temperature displayed a rising trend,while annual precipitation a declining one. However,the changes varied between years and between regions. In terms of significance of the change for years in aridity,the three regions followed an order of the Genghis Khan Mausoleum>Yuan Dynasty Capital>the Ganggyur Temple,while in terms of mutation in annual mean temperature and annual precipitation,all the three regions experienced mutations in annual mean temperature,indicating that annual mean temperature fluctuated drastically,while phenomena of mutation in annual precipitation were found in the Yuan Dynasty Capital region and the Ganggyur Temple region,but not in the Genghis Khan Mausoleum region,indicating that the changes in annual precipitation were more obvious in the former two regions than in the latter. In terms of chronic sequence,the mutation in annual precipitation came later than that in annual mean temperature did.
引文
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[2]IPCC.Summary for Policymakers of Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007:36.
[3]王亚凤,温家洪,刘吉英.南极冰盖与冰川的快速变化[J].极地研究,2006,18(1):63-74.
[4]李忠勤,沈永平,王飞腾,等.冰川消融对气候变化的响应[J].冰川冻土,2007,29(3):333-342.
[5]申辉,郭佩芳.1993—2001年全球海面高度变化特征[J].海洋与湖沼,2003,34(2):169-178.
[6]颜梅,左军成,傅深波,等.全球及中国海海平面变化研究进展[J].海洋环境科学,2008(2):197-200.
[7]张宝森,冀鸿兰,张兴红.黄河内蒙古河段冰凌时空分布特性分析[J].人民黄河,2012,34(2):36-38.
[8]胡宜昌,董文杰,何勇.21世纪初极端天气气候事件研究进展[J].地球科学进展,2007,22(10):1066-1075.
[9]丁文荣.横断山区干旱河谷气候变化趋势研究[J].生态与农村环境学报,2013,29(6):681-687.
[10]陈隆勋,朱文琴,王文,等.中国45年来气候变化的研究[J].气象学报,1998,56(3):257-271.
[11]于淑秋.近50年我国日平均气温的气候变化[J].应用气象学报,2005,16(6):787-793.
[12]王颖,施能,顾骏强,等.中国雨日的气候变化[J].大气科学,2006,30(1):162-170.
[13]向辽元,陈星,黎翠红,等.近55年中国大陆地区降水突变的区域特征[J].暴雨灾害,2007,26(2):149-153.
[14]丁勇,萨茹拉,刘朋涛,等.近40年内蒙古区域温度和降雨量变化的时空格局[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(4):96-102.
[15]马瑞芳.内蒙古草原区近50年气候变化及其对草地生产力的影响[D].北京:中国农业科学院,2007.
[16]李青丰,李福生,乌兰.气候变化与内蒙古草地退化初探[J].旱地区农业研究,2002,20(4):98-102.
[17]鲁丽波.鄂尔多斯市土地生态状况调查与评估分析[D].呼和浩特:内蒙古师范大学,2013.
[18]王海梅,李政海,韩国栋.锡林郭勒地区气候变化规律与植被覆盖变化驱动机制研究[D].呼和浩特:内蒙古农业大学,2009.
[19]丁书萍.呼伦贝尔森林-草原生态交错带气候变化特征研究[D].哈尔滨:东北农业大学,2012.
[20]王海军,涂诗玉,陈正洪.日气温数据缺测的插补方法试验与误差分析[J].气象,2008,34(7):83-91.
[21]孟猛,倪健,张治国.地理生态学的干燥度指数及其应用评述[J].植物生态学报,2004,28(6):853-861.
[22]韩芳,刘朋涛,牛建明.50年来内蒙古荒漠草原气候干燥度的空间分布及其演变特征[J].干旱区研究,2013,30(3):449-456.
[23]高峰,隋波,孙鸿雁,等.1951-2008年东北地区冬季气温变化及环流场特征[J].气象与环境学报,2001,27(4):12-16.
[24]孟秀敬,张士锋,张永勇.河西走廊57年来气温和降水时空变化特征[J].地理学报,2012,67(11):1482-1492.
[25]任国玉,徐铭志,初子莹.中国气温变化研究的最新进展[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(4):701-716.
[26]任国玉,吴虹,陈正洪.我国降水变化趋势的空间特征[J].应用气象学报,2000,11(3):322-330.