武威市平均风速变化特征及其对气候变暖的响应
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摘要
利用1960～2015年武威市5个气象站逐日平均风速、平均气温、平均最高和最低气温资料,应用趋势系数法和相关系数法分析了该区域平均风速的时空变化特征、周期性、突变点及其对气候变暖的响应。结果表明:武威市平均风速表现为山区大于荒漠区,荒漠区大于绿洲平原区;除天祝外,武威市平均风速及其极大值的年代、年、季节变化均呈减小趋势;除古浪外,各地平均风速的季节性变化基本一致,以春季最大,夏季次之,秋、冬季最小;各地(古浪除外)平均风速的月变化也基本一致,1月和9月为两个低谷,4月为一个高峰;武威市平均风速的时间序列存在9～11年的准周期变化,且发生了气候突变;全市及各地年平均气温、平均最高和最低气温均呈显著的上升趋势;除天祝外,武威市各地平均风速与平均气温、平均最高和最低气温间均呈负相关,说明区域气候变暖是造成武威市风速减小的可能原因。
Using the data of daily average wind speed,mean air temperature,mean maximum air temperature and mean minimum air temperature of five meteorological stations in Wuwei city during 1960 ～ 2015,the author analyzed the temporal and spatial change characteristics,periodicity and abrupt-change point of average wind speed,and its response to climatic warming in Wuwei city by using trend coefficient method and correlation coefficient method. The average wind speed of Wuwei city exhibited the following order: mountainous area> desert area> oasis plain area. Except for Tianzhu,the decade,annual and seasonal changes in average wind speed and its maximum value in Wuwei city all showed a decreasing trend. Except for Gulang,the seasonal changes in average wind speed in different regions of Wuwei city were basically the same,and showed the following sequence:spring> summer> autumn and winter. The monthly changes in average wind speed in various regions( except for Gulang) of this city were also basically the same,two low values appeared in January and September,and one peak value was in April. The time series of average wind speed in Wuwei city had the quasi periodic variation of 9 ～ 11 years,and its climatic abrupt-changes occurred. The annual average air temperature,average maximum air temperature and average minimum air temperature in various regions of Wuwei city all revealed a significantly upward trend. The average wind speed was negatively correlated with the average air temperature,average maximum air temperature and average minimum air temperature in various regions( except for Tianzhu) of Wuwei city,suggesting that the regional climatic warming is a possible reason for the wind speed reduction in this city.
Using the data of daily average wind speed,mean air temperature,mean maximum air temperature and mean minimum air temperature of five meteorological stations in Wuwei city during 1960 ～ 2015,the author analyzed the temporal and spatial change characteristics,periodicity and abrupt-change point of average wind speed,and its response to climatic warming in Wuwei city by using trend coefficient method and correlation coefficient method. The average wind speed of Wuwei city exhibited the following order: mountainous area> desert area> oasis plain area. Except for Tianzhu,the decade,annual and seasonal changes in average wind speed and its maximum value in Wuwei city all showed a decreasing trend. Except for Gulang,the seasonal changes in average wind speed in different regions of Wuwei city were basically the same,and showed the following sequence:spring> summer> autumn and winter. The monthly changes in average wind speed in various regions( except for Gulang) of this city were also basically the same,two low values appeared in January and September,and one peak value was in April. The time series of average wind speed in Wuwei city had the quasi periodic variation of 9 ～ 11 years,and its climatic abrupt-changes occurred. The annual average air temperature,average maximum air temperature and average minimum air temperature in various regions of Wuwei city all revealed a significantly upward trend. The average wind speed was negatively correlated with the average air temperature,average maximum air temperature and average minimum air temperature in various regions( except for Tianzhu) of Wuwei city,suggesting that the regional climatic warming is a possible reason for the wind speed reduction in this city.
引文
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[23]刘学锋,江滢,任国玉,等.河北城市化和观测环境改变对地面风速观测资料序列的影响[J].高原气象,2009,28(2):433-439.
[24]汪权,王建国,张鸣祥.随机风速场的数值模拟及高层建筑风振控制[J].控制理论与应用,2009,26(6):613-618.
[25]江滢,罗勇,赵宗慈,等.近50年中国风速变化及原因分析[C]//2007年中国气象学会年会会刊.2007:80-89.
[26]Solomon S. Climate change 2007:the physical science basis[M]//Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge and New York:Cambridge University Press,2007.
[27]Guo H,Xu M,Hu Q. Changes in near surface wind speed in China:1969~2005[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2011,31(3):349-358.
[2]强明瑞,肖舜,张家武,等.柴达木盆地北部风速对尘暴事件降尘的影响[J].中国沙漠,2007,27(2):290-295.
[3]吴占华,任国玉,徐卫丽,等.我国北方沙尘天气的气候成因分析[J].干旱区地理,2011,34(3):429-435.
[4]周向玲,俞胜清,阿布都米基提,等.布古里沙漠部分地区风沙环境特征分析[J].干旱区地理,2013,36(5):796
[5]Mcvicar T R,Van Niel T G,Li L T,et al. Wind speed climatology and trends for Australia,1975~2006:capturing the stilling phenomenon and comparison with near-surface reanalysis output[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2008, 35(20):L20403.
[6]任国玉,郭军,徐铭志,等.近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征[J].气象学报,2005,63(6):942-956.
[7] Wang B,Li T. East Asian monsoon and ENSO interactions[M]//Chang C P. East Asian monsoon. Hackensack:World Scientific,2004:177-212.
[8]Xu X K,Levy J K,Lin Z H. An investigation of sand duststorm events and land surface characteristics in China using NOAANDVI data[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2006,52(1/4):182-196.
[9]王遵娅,丁一汇,何金海,等.近50年来中国气候变化特征的再分析[J].气象学报,2004,62(2):228-236.
[10]岳平,牛生杰,刘晓云.“7·12”特异沙尘暴成因研究[J].干旱区研究,2005,22(3):345-349.
[11]杨晓玲,丁文魁,袁金梅,等.河西走廊东部大风气候特征及预报[J].大气科学学报,2012,35(1):121-127.
[12]曾婷,赵东旭.武威市极大风速气候特征分析及其推算[J].安徽农业科学,2014,42(20):6717-6718.
[13]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第二版)[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:37-41.
[14]Livezey R E,Chen W Y. Statistical filed significance and its determination by Monte Carlo techniques[J]. Monthly Weather Review,1983,111(1):46-59.
[15]周石清,陈建江,耿峻岭.单因子方差分析法对三屯河年均流量序列的周期分析[J].新疆水利,2001,122(3):25-29.
[16]黄嘉佑.第三讲:气候状态变化趋势与突变分析[J].气象,1995,21(7):54-57.
[17]姚正毅,王涛,陈广庭,等.近40a甘肃河西地区大风日数时空分布特征[J].中国沙漠,2006,26(1):65-70.
[18]董安祥,胡文超,张宇,等.河西走廊特殊地形与大风的关系探讨[J].冰川冻土,2014,36(2):347-351.
[19]王毅荣,张存杰.河西走廊风速变化及风能资源研究[J].高原气象,2006,25(6):1196-1202.
[20]李振朝,韦志刚,高荣.近50年河西绿洲地面风的时空变化特征[J].高原气象,2004,23(2):259-263.
[21]道然·加帕依,车罡.新疆东部地区风速的年代际变化及其成因[J].干旱气象,2008,26(3):14-21.
[22]张志斌,杨莹,张小平,等.我国西南地区风速变化及其影响因素[J].生态学报,2014,34(2):471-481.
[23]刘学锋,江滢,任国玉,等.河北城市化和观测环境改变对地面风速观测资料序列的影响[J].高原气象,2009,28(2):433-439.
[24]汪权,王建国,张鸣祥.随机风速场的数值模拟及高层建筑风振控制[J].控制理论与应用,2009,26(6):613-618.
[25]江滢,罗勇,赵宗慈,等.近50年中国风速变化及原因分析[C]//2007年中国气象学会年会会刊.2007:80-89.
[26]Solomon S. Climate change 2007:the physical science basis[M]//Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge and New York:Cambridge University Press,2007.
[27]Guo H,Xu M,Hu Q. Changes in near surface wind speed in China:1969~2005[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2011,31(3):349-358.