塔里木盆地南缘风速变化特征分析
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摘要
采用趋势分析、相关分析、Morlet小波函数和M-K突变检验等方法,分析位于塔里木盆地南缘的8个气象站点平均风速的变化趋势、变化周期、突变情况和变化机制.研究结果表明:1961-2013年间塔里木盆地南缘各气象站点的平均风速为1.61～2.50m·s~(-1),风速的年际差异较小;各站点的风速递减速率为0.01～0.29m·s~(-1)·(10a)~(-1),存在明显差异,平均速率和西北地区整体变化速率一致,但仍具有区域特殊性,不同于西北地区整体变化过程和北疆的变化过程;各研究点风速变化波动周期在4a、15～18a较为一致,但在其他研究中发现的8～10a的波动周期在本研究区不同研究点之间差异较大;喀什、民丰平均风速突变时间为1974年,皮山、和田为1973年,且末、于田分别为1984年和1981年,莎车、若羌没有突变点,说明突变情况差异较大.
The analysis of variation of mean wind speed in south-rim of the Tarim Basin,is performed using wind speed series at 8meteorological stations over the period 1961-2013.Spatio-temporal trends,periodic oscillation,abrupt changes and mechanism are evaluated by climate diagnosis methods including trend analysis,Pearson correlation analysis,Morlet wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall test.The conclusion is as follows:(1)In the studied area,the interannual variation of wind speed is very small,and annual average wind speed ranges from 1.61 to 2.50m· S~(-1) over the whole study period.There is a significant difference in the deceleration rate of wind speed at each station which varies from 0.01 to 0.29m·s~(-1)·(10a)~(-1);the deceleration rate of wind speed in the study region consists with the northwest region.The study area has its own regional characteristics which is different from the northwest region and northern xinjing.(2)The fluctuation periods of wind speed are 4a,15～18ain the studied area.However,there is a periods of 8～10a in other studies which is different with our study.(3)The abrupt change of average annual wind speed appears in 1974 at Kashi and Minfeng,and in 1973 at Pishan and Hetian;the abrupt change of Qiemo and Yutian emerge in 1984 and 1981,respectively;no abrupt occurs in Ruoqiang and Shache.The results show that there is a great difference in the abrupt years in the studied area.
The analysis of variation of mean wind speed in south-rim of the Tarim Basin,is performed using wind speed series at 8meteorological stations over the period 1961-2013.Spatio-temporal trends,periodic oscillation,abrupt changes and mechanism are evaluated by climate diagnosis methods including trend analysis,Pearson correlation analysis,Morlet wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall test.The conclusion is as follows:(1)In the studied area,the interannual variation of wind speed is very small,and annual average wind speed ranges from 1.61 to 2.50m· S~(-1) over the whole study period.There is a significant difference in the deceleration rate of wind speed at each station which varies from 0.01 to 0.29m·s~(-1)·(10a)~(-1);the deceleration rate of wind speed in the study region consists with the northwest region.The study area has its own regional characteristics which is different from the northwest region and northern xinjing.(2)The fluctuation periods of wind speed are 4a,15～18ain the studied area.However,there is a periods of 8～10a in other studies which is different with our study.(3)The abrupt change of average annual wind speed appears in 1974 at Kashi and Minfeng,and in 1973 at Pishan and Hetian;the abrupt change of Qiemo and Yutian emerge in 1984 and 1981,respectively;no abrupt occurs in Ruoqiang and Shache.The results show that there is a great difference in the abrupt years in the studied area.
引文
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[24]何旭强,张勃,赵一飞.黑河流域1960-2009年平均风速时空变化特征[J].水土保持通报,2013,33(4):242-247.
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[26]道然·加帕依,车罡.新疆东部地区风速的年际变化及其成因[J].干旱气象,2008,26(3):14-21.
[27]邹立尧,国世友,王骥,等.1961-2004年黑龙江省近地层风速变化分析[J].气象,2010,36(10):67-71.
[28]张素云,周顺武,郭艳岭,等.近47a河北风速季节变化特征及影响因子分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2010,24(12):93-99.
[29]姚慧茹,李栋梁.1971-2012年青藏高原春季风速的年际变化及对气候变暖的响应[J].气象学报,2016,74(1):60-75.
[30]丁彩霞,延军平,李敏敏.西北地区气候变化与风速响应特征[J].水土保持通报,2014,34(4):134-138.
[31]张明军,李瑞雪,黄小燕,等.中国天山山区风速变化特征[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(7):78-83.
[2] Wild M.2009Global Environmental Change[J].Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013,114(11):D00D16.
[3] Allen M R,Ingram W J.Constraints on future change in climate and hydrologic cycle[J].Nature,2002,219(6903):224-232.
[4] Kousari M R,Ahani H,Hakimelahi H.An investigation of near surface wind speed trends in arid and semiarid regions of Iran[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2013,114(1):153-168.
[5] Troccoli A.Long term wind speed trends over Australia[J].Journal of Climate,2012,25(1):170-183.
[6] Fujibe F.Relation between Long term Temperature and Wind Speed Trends at Surface Observation Stations in Japan[J].Sola,2009,5(1):81-84.
[7] Rehman S.Long Term Wind Speed Analysis and Detection of its Trends Using Mann-Kendall Test and Linear Regression Method[J].Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering,2013,38(2):421-437.
[8] Earl N,Dorling S,Hewston R,et al.1980-2010Variability in U.K.Surface Wind Climate[J].Journal of Climate,2013,26(4):1172-1191.
[9]史培军,张钢锋,孔锋,等.中国1961-2012年风速变化区划[J].气候变化研究进展,2015,11(6):387-394.
[10]江滢,罗勇,赵宗慈.全球气候模式对未来中国风速变化预估[J].大气科学,2010,34(2):323-336.
[11]金巍,任国玉,曲岩,等.1971-2010年东北三省平均地面风速变化[J].干旱区研究,2012,29(4):648-653
[12]刘苏峡,邱建秀,莫兴国.华北平原1951年至2006年风速变化特征分析[J].资源科学,2009,31(9):1486-1492.
[13]田莉,奚晓霞.近50年西北地区风速的气候变化特征[J].安徽农业科学,2011,39(32):20065-20068.
[14]张志斌,杨莹,张小平,等.我国西南地区风速变化及其影响因素[J].生态学报,2014,34(2):471-481.
[15]张克新,潘少明,曹立国.1961-2010年河西地区平均风速时空变化趋势分析[J].地理科学,2014,34(11):1404-1408.
[16]郭军,曹经福,杨艳娟.1971-2012年环渤海沿海地区风速变化及其影响因素分析[J].气象与环境学报,2015,31(4):82-88.
[17]马芹,张晓萍,万龙,等.1957-2009年黄土高原地区风速变化趋势[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(12):2123-2134.
[18]王利盈.1960-2010年云南省日照时数和风速变化特征[J].甘肃农业大学学报,2014,49(5):140-147.
[19]李艳,耿丹,董新宁,等.1961-2007年重庆风速的气候变化特征[J].大气科学学报,2010,33(3):336-340.
[20]何毅,杨太保,陈杰,等.1960-2013年南北疆风速变化特征分析[J].干旱区地理,2015,38(2):249-259.
[21]王钦,曾波,邓力.1981-2013年内蒙古地区风速的时空变化特征[J].内蒙古师范大学学报(自然科学汉文版),2015,44(5):674-679.
[22]王毅荣,张存杰.河西走廊风速变化及风能资源研究[J].高原气象,2006,25(6):1196-1202.
[23]刘强吉,武胜利,罗兰,等.近54年来新疆和田地区平均风速时空变化[J].西南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2016,41(4):46-51.
[24]何旭强,张勃,赵一飞.黑河流域1960-2009年平均风速时空变化特征[J].水土保持通报,2013,33(4):242-247.
[25]蒋冲,王飞,刘焱序,等.秦岭南北风速时空变化及突变特征分析[J].地理科学,2013,33(2):244-250.
[26]道然·加帕依,车罡.新疆东部地区风速的年际变化及其成因[J].干旱气象,2008,26(3):14-21.
[27]邹立尧,国世友,王骥,等.1961-2004年黑龙江省近地层风速变化分析[J].气象,2010,36(10):67-71.
[28]张素云,周顺武,郭艳岭,等.近47a河北风速季节变化特征及影响因子分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2010,24(12):93-99.
[29]姚慧茹,李栋梁.1971-2012年青藏高原春季风速的年际变化及对气候变暖的响应[J].气象学报,2016,74(1):60-75.
[30]丁彩霞,延军平,李敏敏.西北地区气候变化与风速响应特征[J].水土保持通报,2014,34(4):134-138.
[31]张明军,李瑞雪,黄小燕,等.中国天山山区风速变化特征[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(7):78-83.