中国中东部雾霾污染与入境旅游的时空动态关联分析
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摘要
以雾霾污染和入境旅游发展的典型区中国中东部为例,借助格兰杰因果检验、脉冲函数、重心模型及双变量空间自相关等方法,实证了1998-2016年雾霾污染与城市入境旅游的时空动态关联。结果表明:时间层面,雾霾污染与入境旅游之间存在长期均衡,雾霾污染是入境旅游的单向格兰杰原因,在短期内会对入境旅游的稳健性产生显著负向冲击,但从长期来看这种冲击趋于缓和;空间层面,雾霾污染和入境旅游重心分别向东北和西北偏移,研究期间两者空间重叠性虽有所提升,但仍存在明显的空间错位;整体上两者呈显著空间负相关,局部空间关联模式以高—低和低—高集聚为主,雾霾对豫东、徽北和鄂中等地的入境旅游市场影响最为突出,且具有空间依赖性。本研究可为区域入境旅游业合理应对雾霾天气,以实现高质量发展提供参考。
In recent years, the haze weather has caused a negative impact on inbound tourism industry, which cannot be ignored. However, the temporal and spatial relationship between haze pollution and inbound tourism and their interaction remain to be discussed. Taking 174 prefecture-level cities in central and eastern China where haze pollution and the development of inbound tourism are typical as an example, this study explored the spatiotemporal dynamic correlation characteristics of haze pollution and inbound tourism from 1998 to 2016 using the methods of Granger Causality Test, Impulse Response Function, Center of Gravity Model and bivariate Local Indicators of Spatial Association(LISA) Model. The results show that: at the temporal level, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between haze pollution and inbound tourism, and the haze pollution is in the Granger causality with the inbound tourism growth. Although the development of inbound tourism is highly dependent on its own structure, haze pollution still has a significant impact on the stability of inbound tourism growth in a short term, with the impact tending to ease from a long-term perspective. At the spatial level, the centers of gravity of haze pollution and inbound tourism tend to shift to the northeast and northwest, respectively. Although the space-overlaps improved slightly during the study period, there were still obvious spatial dislocations between the centers of haze pollution and inbound tourism. On the whole, both haze pollution and inbound tourism growth in central and eastern China have significantly negative spatial autocorrelation with an increasing trend. The bivariate local spatial correlation patterns are dominated by the High-Low and Low-High agglomeration types among cities. The areas where haze pollution curbs the inbound tourism growth seriously are mainly located in eastern Henan, northern Anhui and central Hubei,showing a certain spatial dependence. This study contributes to the knowledge gap regarding the spatiotemporal relationship between haze pollution and inbound tourism demand on the scale of prefecture-level cities. The findings have implications for local governments and departments related to regional inbound tourism industry to properly cope with the haze weather so as to achieve high-quality development.
In recent years, the haze weather has caused a negative impact on inbound tourism industry, which cannot be ignored. However, the temporal and spatial relationship between haze pollution and inbound tourism and their interaction remain to be discussed. Taking 174 prefecture-level cities in central and eastern China where haze pollution and the development of inbound tourism are typical as an example, this study explored the spatiotemporal dynamic correlation characteristics of haze pollution and inbound tourism from 1998 to 2016 using the methods of Granger Causality Test, Impulse Response Function, Center of Gravity Model and bivariate Local Indicators of Spatial Association(LISA) Model. The results show that: at the temporal level, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between haze pollution and inbound tourism, and the haze pollution is in the Granger causality with the inbound tourism growth. Although the development of inbound tourism is highly dependent on its own structure, haze pollution still has a significant impact on the stability of inbound tourism growth in a short term, with the impact tending to ease from a long-term perspective. At the spatial level, the centers of gravity of haze pollution and inbound tourism tend to shift to the northeast and northwest, respectively. Although the space-overlaps improved slightly during the study period, there were still obvious spatial dislocations between the centers of haze pollution and inbound tourism. On the whole, both haze pollution and inbound tourism growth in central and eastern China have significantly negative spatial autocorrelation with an increasing trend. The bivariate local spatial correlation patterns are dominated by the High-Low and Low-High agglomeration types among cities. The areas where haze pollution curbs the inbound tourism growth seriously are mainly located in eastern Henan, northern Anhui and central Hubei,showing a certain spatial dependence. This study contributes to the knowledge gap regarding the spatiotemporal relationship between haze pollution and inbound tourism demand on the scale of prefecture-level cities. The findings have implications for local governments and departments related to regional inbound tourism industry to properly cope with the haze weather so as to achieve high-quality development.
引文
[1]邵帅,李欣,曹建华,等.中国雾霾污染治理的经济政策选择:基于空间溢出效应的视角.经济研究, 2016, 51(9):73-88.[SHAO S, LI X, CAO J H, et al. China's economic policy choices for governing smog pollution based on spatial spillover effects. Economic Research Journal, 2016, 51(9):73-88.]
[2]郭元喜,龚道溢,汪文珊,等.中国中东部秋季PM10时空变化及其与日气温的关系.地理学报, 2012, 67(9):1155-1164.[GUO Y X, GONG D Y, WANG W S, et al. Spatiotemporal variation of PM10concentration and its relationship with autumn daily temperature over central and Eastern China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(9):1155-1164.]
[3]彭建,郭思远,裴亚楠,等.大陆居民对北京雾霾的旅游影响感知和态度研究.中国人口·资源与环境, 2016, 26(10):168-176.[PENG J, GUO S Y, PEI Y N, et al. Mainland Chinese residents'perception of tourism impacted by haze in Beijing and their attitudes. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2016, 26(10):168-176.]
[4]阎友兵,张静.基于本底趋势线的雾霾天气对我国入境游客量的影响分析.经济地理, 2016, 36(12):183-188.[YAN Y B, ZHANG J. Impact of smog weather on the amount of inbound tourists of China based on the natural trend curve.Economic Geography, 2016, 36(12):183-188.]
[5]李静, PEARCE P L,吴必虎,等.雾霾对来京旅游者风险感知及旅游体验的影响:基于结构方程模型的中外旅游者对比研究.旅游学刊, 2015, 30(10):48-59.[LI J, PEARCE P L, WU B H, et al. The impact of smog on risk perception and satisfaction of international and domestic tourists in Beijing. Tourism Tribune, 2015, 30(10):48-59.]
[6] DWYER L, FORSYTH P. Assessing the benefits and costs of inbound tourism. Annals of Tourism Research, 1993, 20(4):751-768.
[7] KOENIG U, ABEGG B. Impacts of climate change on winter tourism in the Swiss Alps. Journal of Sustainable Tourism,1997, 5(1):46-58.
[8] BANK M, WIESNER R. Determinants of weather derivatives usage in the Austrian winter tourism industry. Tourism Management, 2011, 32(1):62-68.
[9]侯国林,黄震方,台运红,等.旅游与气候变化研究进展.生态学报, 2015, 35(9):2837-2847.[HOU G L, HUANG Z F,TAI Y H, et al. Progress and implications in tourism and climate change research. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2015, 35(9):2837-2847.]
[10] MORENO A, BECKEN S. A climate change vulnerability assessment methodology for coastal tourism. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 2009, 17(4):473-488.
[11] ANAMAN K A, LOOI C N. Economic impact of haze related air pollution on the tourism industry in Brunei Darussalam. Economic Analysis&Policy, 2000, 30(2):133-143.
[12] G?SSLING S, HALL C M. Uncertainties in predicting tourist flows under scenarios of climate change. Climatic Change, 2006, 79(3-4):163-173.
[13] BECKEN S, CLAPCOTT R. National tourism policy for climate change. Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure&Events, 2011, 3(1):1-17.
[14]张洪,孙雨茜,司家慧.基于知识图谱法的国际生态旅游研究分析.自然资源学报, 2017, 32(2):342-352.[ZHANG H, SUN Y Q, SI J H. Analyses of international ecological tourism research based on domain knowledge mapping. Journal of Natural Resources, 2017, 32(2):342-352.]
[15]马丽君,孙根年,马耀峰,等.极端天气气候事件对旅游业的影响:以2008年雪灾为例.资源科学, 2010, 32(1):107-112.[MA L J, SUN G N, MA Y F, et al. A study on the influence of extreme weather and climate on tourism:A case on snowstorm in 2008. Resources Science, 2010, 32(1):107-112.]
[16] BECKEN S, JIN X, ZHANG C, et al. Urban air pollution in China:Destination image and risk perceptions. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 2017, 25(1):130-147.
[17] RITCHIE B W. Chaos, crises and disasters:A strategic approach to crisis management in the tourism industry. Tourism Management, 2004, 25(6):669-683.
[18]王振波,方创琳,许光,等. 2014年中国城市PM2.5浓度的时空变化规律.地理学报, 2015, 70(11):1720-1734.[WANG Z B, FANG C L, XU G, et al. Spatial-temporal characteristics of the PM2.5in China in 2014. Acta Geographica Sinica,2015, 70(11):1720-1734.]
[19]康恒元,刘玉莲,李涛.黑龙江省重点城市AQI指数特征及其与气象要素之关系.自然资源学报, 2017, 32(4):692-703.[KANG H Y, LIU Y L, LI T. Characteristics of air quality index and its relationship with meteorological factors in key cities of Heilongjiang province. Journal of Natural Resources, 2017, 32(4):692-703.]
[20]张淑平,韩立健,周伟奇,等.冬季PM2.5的气象影响因素解析.生态学报, 2016, 36(24):7897-7907.[ZHANG S P,HAN L J, ZHOU W Q, et al. Relationships between fine particulate matter(PM2.5)and meteorological factors in winter at typical Chinese cities. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2016, 36(24):7897-7907.]
[21]程德年,周永博,魏向东,等.基于负面IPA的入境游客对华环境风险感知研究.旅游学刊, 2015, 30(1):54-62.[CHENG D N, ZHOU Y B, WEI X D, et al. A study on the environmental risk perceptions of inbound tourists for China using negative IPA assessment. Tourism Tribune, 2015, 30(1):54-62.]
[22]张晨,高峻,丁培毅.雾霾天气对潜在海外游客来华意愿的影响:基于目的地形象和风险感知理论.旅游学刊,2017, 32(12):58-67.[ZHANG C, GAO J, DING P Y. Impacts of haze on the intention to visit China of overseas tourists:Based on destination image and risk perception theories. Tourism Tribune, 2017, 32(12):58-67.]
[23] ZHANG A P, ZHONG L S, XU Y, et al. Tourists'perception of haze pollution and the potential impacts on travel:Reshaping the features of tourism seasonality in Beijing, China. Sustainability, 2015, 7(3):2397-2414.
[24]谢佳慧,李隆伟,王艳平.排斥物:雾霾降低入境旅游规模.当代经济科学, 2017, 39(1):113-123, 128.[XIE J H, LI L W, WANG Y P. Repulsion:Does haze reduce inbound tourism scale?. Modern Economic Science, 2017, 39(1):113-123,128.]
[25]唐承财,刘霄泉,宋昌耀.雾霾对区域旅游业的影响及应对策略探讨.地理与地理信息科学, 2016, 32(5):121-126.[TANG C C, LIU X Q, SONG C Y. Impact of haze on regional tourism industry and its countermeasures. Geography and Geo-Information Science, 2016, 32(5):121-126.]
[26]唐承财,马蕾,宋昌耀.雾霾天气影响北京入境旅游吗:基于面板数据的实证检验.干旱区资源与环境, 2017, 31(1):192-197.[TANG C C, MA L, SONG C Y. Do fog and haze affect Beijing inbound tourism:An empirical study based on panel data. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2017, 31(1):192-197.]
[27] DENG T T, LI X, MA M L. Evaluating impact of air pollution on China's inbound tourism industry:A spatial econometric approach. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 2017, 22(7):771-781.
[28]纪小美,王婷,陶卓民,等.时空交互视角下的中国入境客流分布动态分析.人文地理, 2016, 31(4):153-160.[JI X M, WANG T, TAO Z M, et al. Distributional dynamics of China's inbound tourist flow:Under the view of spatial-temporal interaction. Human Geography, 2016, 31(4):153-160.]
[29] DONKELAAR A V, MARTIN R V, BRAUER M, et al. Use of satellite observations for long-term exposure assessment of global concentrations of fine particulate matter. Environmental Health Perspectives, 2015, 123(2):135-143.
[30]武红,谷树忠,关兴良,等.中国化石能源消费碳排放与经济增长关系研究.自然资源学报, 2013, 28(3):381-390.[WU H, GU S Z, GUAN X L, et al. Analysis on relationship between carbon emissions from fossil energy consumption and economic growth in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2013, 28(3):381-390.]
[31]李鹏,张俊飚.森林碳汇与经济增长的长期均衡及短期动态关系研究:基于中国1998-2010年省级面板数据.自然资源学报, 2013, 28(11):1835-1845.[LI P, ZHANG J B. Research on the long-term and short-term dynamic relationship between carbon forestry development and economic growth:Based on the provincial panel data of China in 1998-2010. Journal of Natural Resources, 2013, 28(11):1835-1845.]
[32]黄睿,王坤,黄震方,等.绩效视角下区域旅游发展格局的时空动态及耦合关系:以泛长江三角洲为例.地理研究,2018, 37(5):995-1008.[HUANG R, WANG K, HUANG Z F, et al. Spatio-temporal dynamics and coupling relationship of regional tourism development pattern from the perspective of performance:A case study of Pan-Yangtze River Delta.Geographical Research, 2018, 37(5):995-1008.]
[33] ELHORST J P. Specification and estimation of spatial panel data models. International Regional Science Review, 2003,26(3):244-268.
[34]洪学婷,张宏梅,张业臣.旅游体验对旅游者环境态度和环境行为影响的纵向追踪研究.自然资源学报, 2018, 33(9):1642-1656.[HONG X T, ZHANG H M, ZHANG Y C. Influence of tourism experience on environmental attitude and behavior:A longitudinal tracking study. Journal of Natural Resources, 2018, 33(9):1642-1656.]
[2]郭元喜,龚道溢,汪文珊,等.中国中东部秋季PM10时空变化及其与日气温的关系.地理学报, 2012, 67(9):1155-1164.[GUO Y X, GONG D Y, WANG W S, et al. Spatiotemporal variation of PM10concentration and its relationship with autumn daily temperature over central and Eastern China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(9):1155-1164.]
[3]彭建,郭思远,裴亚楠,等.大陆居民对北京雾霾的旅游影响感知和态度研究.中国人口·资源与环境, 2016, 26(10):168-176.[PENG J, GUO S Y, PEI Y N, et al. Mainland Chinese residents'perception of tourism impacted by haze in Beijing and their attitudes. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2016, 26(10):168-176.]
[4]阎友兵,张静.基于本底趋势线的雾霾天气对我国入境游客量的影响分析.经济地理, 2016, 36(12):183-188.[YAN Y B, ZHANG J. Impact of smog weather on the amount of inbound tourists of China based on the natural trend curve.Economic Geography, 2016, 36(12):183-188.]
[5]李静, PEARCE P L,吴必虎,等.雾霾对来京旅游者风险感知及旅游体验的影响:基于结构方程模型的中外旅游者对比研究.旅游学刊, 2015, 30(10):48-59.[LI J, PEARCE P L, WU B H, et al. The impact of smog on risk perception and satisfaction of international and domestic tourists in Beijing. Tourism Tribune, 2015, 30(10):48-59.]
[6] DWYER L, FORSYTH P. Assessing the benefits and costs of inbound tourism. Annals of Tourism Research, 1993, 20(4):751-768.
[7] KOENIG U, ABEGG B. Impacts of climate change on winter tourism in the Swiss Alps. Journal of Sustainable Tourism,1997, 5(1):46-58.
[8] BANK M, WIESNER R. Determinants of weather derivatives usage in the Austrian winter tourism industry. Tourism Management, 2011, 32(1):62-68.
[9]侯国林,黄震方,台运红,等.旅游与气候变化研究进展.生态学报, 2015, 35(9):2837-2847.[HOU G L, HUANG Z F,TAI Y H, et al. Progress and implications in tourism and climate change research. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2015, 35(9):2837-2847.]
[10] MORENO A, BECKEN S. A climate change vulnerability assessment methodology for coastal tourism. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 2009, 17(4):473-488.
[11] ANAMAN K A, LOOI C N. Economic impact of haze related air pollution on the tourism industry in Brunei Darussalam. Economic Analysis&Policy, 2000, 30(2):133-143.
[12] G?SSLING S, HALL C M. Uncertainties in predicting tourist flows under scenarios of climate change. Climatic Change, 2006, 79(3-4):163-173.
[13] BECKEN S, CLAPCOTT R. National tourism policy for climate change. Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure&Events, 2011, 3(1):1-17.
[14]张洪,孙雨茜,司家慧.基于知识图谱法的国际生态旅游研究分析.自然资源学报, 2017, 32(2):342-352.[ZHANG H, SUN Y Q, SI J H. Analyses of international ecological tourism research based on domain knowledge mapping. Journal of Natural Resources, 2017, 32(2):342-352.]
[15]马丽君,孙根年,马耀峰,等.极端天气气候事件对旅游业的影响:以2008年雪灾为例.资源科学, 2010, 32(1):107-112.[MA L J, SUN G N, MA Y F, et al. A study on the influence of extreme weather and climate on tourism:A case on snowstorm in 2008. Resources Science, 2010, 32(1):107-112.]
[16] BECKEN S, JIN X, ZHANG C, et al. Urban air pollution in China:Destination image and risk perceptions. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 2017, 25(1):130-147.
[17] RITCHIE B W. Chaos, crises and disasters:A strategic approach to crisis management in the tourism industry. Tourism Management, 2004, 25(6):669-683.
[18]王振波,方创琳,许光,等. 2014年中国城市PM2.5浓度的时空变化规律.地理学报, 2015, 70(11):1720-1734.[WANG Z B, FANG C L, XU G, et al. Spatial-temporal characteristics of the PM2.5in China in 2014. Acta Geographica Sinica,2015, 70(11):1720-1734.]
[19]康恒元,刘玉莲,李涛.黑龙江省重点城市AQI指数特征及其与气象要素之关系.自然资源学报, 2017, 32(4):692-703.[KANG H Y, LIU Y L, LI T. Characteristics of air quality index and its relationship with meteorological factors in key cities of Heilongjiang province. Journal of Natural Resources, 2017, 32(4):692-703.]
[20]张淑平,韩立健,周伟奇,等.冬季PM2.5的气象影响因素解析.生态学报, 2016, 36(24):7897-7907.[ZHANG S P,HAN L J, ZHOU W Q, et al. Relationships between fine particulate matter(PM2.5)and meteorological factors in winter at typical Chinese cities. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2016, 36(24):7897-7907.]
[21]程德年,周永博,魏向东,等.基于负面IPA的入境游客对华环境风险感知研究.旅游学刊, 2015, 30(1):54-62.[CHENG D N, ZHOU Y B, WEI X D, et al. A study on the environmental risk perceptions of inbound tourists for China using negative IPA assessment. Tourism Tribune, 2015, 30(1):54-62.]
[22]张晨,高峻,丁培毅.雾霾天气对潜在海外游客来华意愿的影响:基于目的地形象和风险感知理论.旅游学刊,2017, 32(12):58-67.[ZHANG C, GAO J, DING P Y. Impacts of haze on the intention to visit China of overseas tourists:Based on destination image and risk perception theories. Tourism Tribune, 2017, 32(12):58-67.]
[23] ZHANG A P, ZHONG L S, XU Y, et al. Tourists'perception of haze pollution and the potential impacts on travel:Reshaping the features of tourism seasonality in Beijing, China. Sustainability, 2015, 7(3):2397-2414.
[24]谢佳慧,李隆伟,王艳平.排斥物:雾霾降低入境旅游规模.当代经济科学, 2017, 39(1):113-123, 128.[XIE J H, LI L W, WANG Y P. Repulsion:Does haze reduce inbound tourism scale?. Modern Economic Science, 2017, 39(1):113-123,128.]
[25]唐承财,刘霄泉,宋昌耀.雾霾对区域旅游业的影响及应对策略探讨.地理与地理信息科学, 2016, 32(5):121-126.[TANG C C, LIU X Q, SONG C Y. Impact of haze on regional tourism industry and its countermeasures. Geography and Geo-Information Science, 2016, 32(5):121-126.]
[26]唐承财,马蕾,宋昌耀.雾霾天气影响北京入境旅游吗:基于面板数据的实证检验.干旱区资源与环境, 2017, 31(1):192-197.[TANG C C, MA L, SONG C Y. Do fog and haze affect Beijing inbound tourism:An empirical study based on panel data. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2017, 31(1):192-197.]
[27] DENG T T, LI X, MA M L. Evaluating impact of air pollution on China's inbound tourism industry:A spatial econometric approach. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 2017, 22(7):771-781.
[28]纪小美,王婷,陶卓民,等.时空交互视角下的中国入境客流分布动态分析.人文地理, 2016, 31(4):153-160.[JI X M, WANG T, TAO Z M, et al. Distributional dynamics of China's inbound tourist flow:Under the view of spatial-temporal interaction. Human Geography, 2016, 31(4):153-160.]
[29] DONKELAAR A V, MARTIN R V, BRAUER M, et al. Use of satellite observations for long-term exposure assessment of global concentrations of fine particulate matter. Environmental Health Perspectives, 2015, 123(2):135-143.
[30]武红,谷树忠,关兴良,等.中国化石能源消费碳排放与经济增长关系研究.自然资源学报, 2013, 28(3):381-390.[WU H, GU S Z, GUAN X L, et al. Analysis on relationship between carbon emissions from fossil energy consumption and economic growth in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2013, 28(3):381-390.]
[31]李鹏,张俊飚.森林碳汇与经济增长的长期均衡及短期动态关系研究:基于中国1998-2010年省级面板数据.自然资源学报, 2013, 28(11):1835-1845.[LI P, ZHANG J B. Research on the long-term and short-term dynamic relationship between carbon forestry development and economic growth:Based on the provincial panel data of China in 1998-2010. Journal of Natural Resources, 2013, 28(11):1835-1845.]
[32]黄睿,王坤,黄震方,等.绩效视角下区域旅游发展格局的时空动态及耦合关系:以泛长江三角洲为例.地理研究,2018, 37(5):995-1008.[HUANG R, WANG K, HUANG Z F, et al. Spatio-temporal dynamics and coupling relationship of regional tourism development pattern from the perspective of performance:A case study of Pan-Yangtze River Delta.Geographical Research, 2018, 37(5):995-1008.]
[33] ELHORST J P. Specification and estimation of spatial panel data models. International Regional Science Review, 2003,26(3):244-268.
[34]洪学婷,张宏梅,张业臣.旅游体验对旅游者环境态度和环境行为影响的纵向追踪研究.自然资源学报, 2018, 33(9):1642-1656.[HONG X T, ZHANG H M, ZHANG Y C. Influence of tourism experience on environmental attitude and behavior:A longitudinal tracking study. Journal of Natural Resources, 2018, 33(9):1642-1656.]