黑龙江省甜菜农业气象年景评估方法
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摘要
探讨甜菜农业气象年景评估方法旨在为甜菜农业生产、种植计划调整及栽培管理提供指导。利用黑龙江省11个甜菜栽培市(地)1986—2012年期间的甜菜单产和播种面积资料、以及同期逐日气温、降水量、日照时数资料,基于气候适宜度指数法和加权系数法构建了各市(地)甜菜农业气象年景逐步回归模型和黑龙江省甜菜农业气象年景评估模型。结果表明,各市(地)甜菜农业气象年景值Fi与关键生育期的综合气候适宜度指数存在极显著的相关关系,均通过高于P<0.02水平的极显著性统计检验;回代检验各市(地)准确率在73.7%~88.5%,黑龙江省准确率为81.0%;2013年预报检验各市(地)平均准确率为76.9%,黑龙江省准确率为100%,2013年黑龙江省甜菜农业气象预测年景和实际年景均为平年。基于气候适宜度指数法和加权系数法构建的黑龙江省甜菜农业气象年景评估模型评估和预报准确率较高,可初步用于黑龙江省甜菜农业气象年景评估、业务预报与服务。
Discussing the assessment method of agrometeorological year's harvest of sugar beet aims atproviding guidance for agricultural production, planting plan adjustment and cultivation management of sugarbeet. With the yield and sowing area data of 11 sugar beet cultivation regions from 1986 to 2012 inHeilongjiang, as well as the daily air temperature, precipitation and sunshine time data of the same term, andbased on the climatic suitability index method and weighted coefficient method, the authors built the stepwiseregression models of the agrometeorological year's harvest of sugar beet for these regions, and the assessmentmodel of weighted coefficient method in Heilongjiang. The results showed that: there were significantcorrelations between the value Fiof the agrometeorological year's harvest of sugar beet and the comprehensiveclimatic suitability index of the key growth period, the correlative coefficients passed a significant statisticaltest of above P<0.02, the retrospective test correct rate in the 11 cultivation regions was 73.7%-88.5%, andthat of Heilongjiang was 81.0%. The average correct rate of the forecast test in the study regions was 76.9%,while that in Heilongjiang was 100% in 2013, the forecast and actual agrometeorological year's harvest ofsugar beet were all ordinary in 2013. The correct rate of the constructed agricultural meteorological year'sharvest model in Heilongjiang, which was based on the climatic suitability index method and the weighted coefficient method, is relatively high, and can be used for agricultural meteorological year's harvestassessment, and agrometeorological forecast and service in Heilongjiang.
Discussing the assessment method of agrometeorological year's harvest of sugar beet aims atproviding guidance for agricultural production, planting plan adjustment and cultivation management of sugarbeet. With the yield and sowing area data of 11 sugar beet cultivation regions from 1986 to 2012 inHeilongjiang, as well as the daily air temperature, precipitation and sunshine time data of the same term, andbased on the climatic suitability index method and weighted coefficient method, the authors built the stepwiseregression models of the agrometeorological year's harvest of sugar beet for these regions, and the assessmentmodel of weighted coefficient method in Heilongjiang. The results showed that: there were significantcorrelations between the value Fiof the agrometeorological year's harvest of sugar beet and the comprehensiveclimatic suitability index of the key growth period, the correlative coefficients passed a significant statisticaltest of above P<0.02, the retrospective test correct rate in the 11 cultivation regions was 73.7%-88.5%, andthat of Heilongjiang was 81.0%. The average correct rate of the forecast test in the study regions was 76.9%,while that in Heilongjiang was 100% in 2013, the forecast and actual agrometeorological year's harvest ofsugar beet were all ordinary in 2013. The correct rate of the constructed agricultural meteorological year'sharvest model in Heilongjiang, which was based on the climatic suitability index method and the weighted coefficient method, is relatively high, and can be used for agricultural meteorological year's harvestassessment, and agrometeorological forecast and service in Heilongjiang.
引文
[1]韩秉进,陈渊.黑龙江产区甜菜糖业面临的问题与对策[J].农业系统科学与综合研究,2001,17(3):227-229.
[2]韩秉进,陈渊,郝连祥,等.甜菜高产栽培模式生态指标的研究[J].农业系统科学与综合研究,1999,15(4):266-268,272.
[3]于虹.简述黑龙江省“十五”甜菜产业成绩及“十一五”发展展望[J].中国糖料,2006(3):50-52.
[4]冯定原,郭亚.农业气象年景预报初探[J].南京气象学院学报,1983(1):95-107.
[5]帅细强,王石立,马玉平,等.基于水稻生长模型的气象影响评价和产量动态预测[J].应用气象学报,2008,19(1):71-81.
[6]杨祥珠,娄伟平.集对分析在作物产量年景预报中的应用[J].中国农业气象,2008,29(1):79-82.
[7]陈万松.应用马尔科夫链制作水稻产量年景预报[J].耕作与栽培,1989(1):41-43.
[8]郑昌玲,杨霏云,王建林,等.早稻产量动态预报模型[J].中国农业气象,2007,28(4):412-416,452.
[9]刘伟昌,陈怀亮,余卫东,等.基于气候适宜度指数的冬小麦产量动态预报技术研究[J].气象与环境科学,2008,31(2):21-24.
[10]宋迎波,王建林,陈晖,等.中国油菜产量动态预报方法研究[J].气象,2008,34(3):93-99.
[11]易雪,王建林,宋迎波,等.气候适宜指数在早稻产量动态预报上的应用[J].气象,2010,36(6):85-89.
[12]王建林,太华杰.影响中国棉花产量丰歉的气象指标[J].应用气象学报,1995,6(A01):96-101.
[13]魏瑞江,宋迎波,王鑫.基于气候适宜度的玉米产量动态预报方法[J].应用气象学报,2009,20(5):622-627.
[14]杜春英,李帅,王晾晾,等.基于历史产量丰歉影响指数的黑龙江省水稻产量动态预报[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(3):427-430.
[15]孙家民,黄朝迎.中国农业气候年景的评估及预测[J].应用气象学报,2005,16(Z1):111-115.
[16]王建林,王宪彬,太华杰.中国粮食总产量预测方法研究[J].气象学报,2000,58(6):738-744.
[17]张国林,张富荣,宗英飞,等.基于气象因子的朝阳大枣年景预报模型[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(2):240-244.
[18]高永刚,南瑞,顾红,等.黑龙江省甜菜气候生产力模拟和种植气候区划[J].生态学杂志,2009,28(1):27-31.
[19]刘宗文.甜菜生长与气象条件的关系[J].作物学报,1965,4(3):211-218.
[20]中国农业推广网.甜菜生长对温度有什么要求?[EB/OL].Http://www.agri.gov.cn/V20/gw/xdnycyjs/zzjs/jjzw/qt/201207/t20120718_2792708.htm.
[2]韩秉进,陈渊,郝连祥,等.甜菜高产栽培模式生态指标的研究[J].农业系统科学与综合研究,1999,15(4):266-268,272.
[3]于虹.简述黑龙江省“十五”甜菜产业成绩及“十一五”发展展望[J].中国糖料,2006(3):50-52.
[4]冯定原,郭亚.农业气象年景预报初探[J].南京气象学院学报,1983(1):95-107.
[5]帅细强,王石立,马玉平,等.基于水稻生长模型的气象影响评价和产量动态预测[J].应用气象学报,2008,19(1):71-81.
[6]杨祥珠,娄伟平.集对分析在作物产量年景预报中的应用[J].中国农业气象,2008,29(1):79-82.
[7]陈万松.应用马尔科夫链制作水稻产量年景预报[J].耕作与栽培,1989(1):41-43.
[8]郑昌玲,杨霏云,王建林,等.早稻产量动态预报模型[J].中国农业气象,2007,28(4):412-416,452.
[9]刘伟昌,陈怀亮,余卫东,等.基于气候适宜度指数的冬小麦产量动态预报技术研究[J].气象与环境科学,2008,31(2):21-24.
[10]宋迎波,王建林,陈晖,等.中国油菜产量动态预报方法研究[J].气象,2008,34(3):93-99.
[11]易雪,王建林,宋迎波,等.气候适宜指数在早稻产量动态预报上的应用[J].气象,2010,36(6):85-89.
[12]王建林,太华杰.影响中国棉花产量丰歉的气象指标[J].应用气象学报,1995,6(A01):96-101.
[13]魏瑞江,宋迎波,王鑫.基于气候适宜度的玉米产量动态预报方法[J].应用气象学报,2009,20(5):622-627.
[14]杜春英,李帅,王晾晾,等.基于历史产量丰歉影响指数的黑龙江省水稻产量动态预报[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(3):427-430.
[15]孙家民,黄朝迎.中国农业气候年景的评估及预测[J].应用气象学报,2005,16(Z1):111-115.
[16]王建林,王宪彬,太华杰.中国粮食总产量预测方法研究[J].气象学报,2000,58(6):738-744.
[17]张国林,张富荣,宗英飞,等.基于气象因子的朝阳大枣年景预报模型[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(2):240-244.
[18]高永刚,南瑞,顾红,等.黑龙江省甜菜气候生产力模拟和种植气候区划[J].生态学杂志,2009,28(1):27-31.
[19]刘宗文.甜菜生长与气象条件的关系[J].作物学报,1965,4(3):211-218.
[20]中国农业推广网.甜菜生长对温度有什么要求?[EB/OL].Http://www.agri.gov.cn/V20/gw/xdnycyjs/zzjs/jjzw/qt/201207/t20120718_2792708.htm.