干旱对阜新粮食产量的影响研究
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摘要
利用2000-2017年阜新地区旱情、降水量和粮食产量等相关资料,对阜新农作物生长季干旱与粮食产量关系进行了分析和研究。得出的结论是:阜新农业干旱存在大小周期。其中,小周期有3年、6年,大周期15年。干旱年多呈连续性,最多连续干旱4～5年,出现在大周期;最少连续干旱1～2年,出现在小周期。春、夏、秋各季重特大干旱几率比为3:4:3。重特大干旱、中轻旱、不旱的几率比为7∶2∶1。春、夏、秋三季连续重特大干旱、二季重特大干旱、一季重特大干旱之间的几率比为1. 7∶2. 5∶5. 8。中轻度干旱年,粮食年景为8～10成年;一季重特大干旱年,粮食年景为6～7成年;二季重特大干旱年,粮食年景为5～6成年;三季重特大干旱年,粮食年景为2～3成年。阜新粮食总产量与全市各乡镇3～10月平均降水量相关性最好,相关系数为0. 814;玉米平均单产与全市各乡镇6～8月平均降水量相关性最好,相关系数为0. 836。阜新生长季降水量对粮食总产量的平均贡献率为0. 088亿kg/mm。
Based on the data of drought,precipitation and grain yield in Fuxin area from 2000 to 2017,The relationship between drought and grain yield in the growing season of Fuxin was analyzed and studied. The conclusion were as follows: The small cycles of drought in Fuxin were 3 years and 6 years. The large period was about 15 years. In general,continuous drought in large cycles lasted for 4 years to 5 years,and small cycles drought for 1 to2 years. The ratio of the probability of severe drought of spring,summer and autumn was 3: 4: 3. Among them,The ratio of the probability of heavy drought in each season was 2: 5: 3,and The ratio of the probability of extreme drought was 5: 2. 5: 2. 5,which indicates that the heavy drought was much more In summer,the extreme drought was much more In spring. The ratio of the probability of severe drought,middle drought,light dry year to drought free year was about 7: 1: 2. The ratio of the probability of continuous heavy drought in three seasons and severe drought in the two seasons and heavy drought in one season was 1. 7: 2. 5: 5. 8. It shows that the greatest probability of severe drought was in one season. when the spring,summer and autumn three seasons experienced severe drought,the total grain production in Fuxin was lowest in all years. When the two seasons of spring and autumn or summer and autumn was heavy drought,the total yield of heavy arid grain in summer and autumn was the lowest,followed by spring and autumn,and the phenomenon of continuous heavy drought in spring and summer was less. moderate drought year,the annual grain harvest was 80% to 100%; one season heavy dry year,grain harvest was 60% to 70%; two season heavy dry year,grain harvest was 50% to 60%; three seasons heavy dry year,grain arvest was 20% to 30%. In the most severe drought year,the grain loss was about 2. 2 billion Kilograms,and the grain loss in middle dry year was 0. 8 billion to 1. 0 billion Kilograms,and the grain loss in light drought year was 0. 3 billion to 0. 5 billion Kilograms. The total grain output in Fuxin was in good correlation with the average precipitation from March to October in all townships,The correlation coefficient was 0. 814. The average yield per unit area of maize was in good correlation with the precipitation of all townships from June to August,The correlation coefficient was 0. 836. the average contribution rate of annual precipitation to total grain output in Fuxin was 8. 8 million kg/mm.
Based on the data of drought,precipitation and grain yield in Fuxin area from 2000 to 2017,The relationship between drought and grain yield in the growing season of Fuxin was analyzed and studied. The conclusion were as follows: The small cycles of drought in Fuxin were 3 years and 6 years. The large period was about 15 years. In general,continuous drought in large cycles lasted for 4 years to 5 years,and small cycles drought for 1 to2 years. The ratio of the probability of severe drought of spring,summer and autumn was 3: 4: 3. Among them,The ratio of the probability of heavy drought in each season was 2: 5: 3,and The ratio of the probability of extreme drought was 5: 2. 5: 2. 5,which indicates that the heavy drought was much more In summer,the extreme drought was much more In spring. The ratio of the probability of severe drought,middle drought,light dry year to drought free year was about 7: 1: 2. The ratio of the probability of continuous heavy drought in three seasons and severe drought in the two seasons and heavy drought in one season was 1. 7: 2. 5: 5. 8. It shows that the greatest probability of severe drought was in one season. when the spring,summer and autumn three seasons experienced severe drought,the total grain production in Fuxin was lowest in all years. When the two seasons of spring and autumn or summer and autumn was heavy drought,the total yield of heavy arid grain in summer and autumn was the lowest,followed by spring and autumn,and the phenomenon of continuous heavy drought in spring and summer was less. moderate drought year,the annual grain harvest was 80% to 100%; one season heavy dry year,grain harvest was 60% to 70%; two season heavy dry year,grain harvest was 50% to 60%; three seasons heavy dry year,grain arvest was 20% to 30%. In the most severe drought year,the grain loss was about 2. 2 billion Kilograms,and the grain loss in middle dry year was 0. 8 billion to 1. 0 billion Kilograms,and the grain loss in light drought year was 0. 3 billion to 0. 5 billion Kilograms. The total grain output in Fuxin was in good correlation with the average precipitation from March to October in all townships,The correlation coefficient was 0. 814. The average yield per unit area of maize was in good correlation with the precipitation of all townships from June to August,The correlation coefficient was 0. 836. the average contribution rate of annual precipitation to total grain output in Fuxin was 8. 8 million kg/mm.
引文
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[7]张琪,张继权,佟志军,等.干旱对辽宁省玉米产量影响及风险区划[J].灾害学,2010,25(2):87-91.
[8]张淑杰,周广胜,张玉书,等.辽宁地区玉米耗水量与产量的关系[J].干旱地区农业研究,2018,36(1):246-250.
[2]李新旺,王树涛,门明新,等.基于EMD的河北省粮食产量波动及其成因的时空多尺度分析[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(11):1995-2002.
[3]吕彦彬,王玉斌.我国旱灾变迁及对粮食产量的影响[J].河南农业科学,2014,43(10):19-22.
[4]颜亮东,李林,李红梅.青海省气象干旱对粮食产量的影响及其评估方法研究[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(3):687
[5]刘明,杨奇勇,王克林.长沙市旱涝灾害及其与粮食产量波动关系研究[J].农业系统科学与综合研究,2007,23(3):320-323.
[6]孙彦坤,梁荣欣,杨爱民.不同时期水分对春小麦产量的影响[J].中国农业气象,1998,19(2):17-19.
[7]张琪,张继权,佟志军,等.干旱对辽宁省玉米产量影响及风险区划[J].灾害学,2010,25(2):87-91.
[8]张淑杰,周广胜,张玉书,等.辽宁地区玉米耗水量与产量的关系[J].干旱地区农业研究,2018,36(1):246-250.