海南省台风和暴雨灾害年景评估及其变化分析
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摘要
利用海南省1982—2017年的气象观测资料、台风和暴雨灾情资料以及社会经济数据,构建了可较好去除物价上涨因素的灾害影响综合评估指数,并按照百分位法确定了灾害的气候年景等级阈值,给出了历年灾害年景的评估结果,分析了灾害年景的变化及其影响因素,结果表明:(1)所研制的灾害年景评估方法可以客观地反映海南省台风和暴雨灾害的年景分布;(2)近36年海南省台风和暴雨灾害年景等级年际间的波动剧烈,且在20世纪80年代后期至20世纪末存在3～6年的显著周期,21世纪初期存在短暂的4～5年和2～3年的显著周期.在年代际变化方面,1982—1996年期间,灾害年景等级基本处于相对偏高的阶段,1997—2017年灾害等级进入相对偏低的阶段,但未发生突变;(3)近36年来,尽管登陆海南岛的热带气旋的年最强登陆强度有增强趋势,热带气旋所造成的重度区域性暴雨过程的年频次亦有增加趋势,但由于热带气旋年登陆频数的减少以及防灾减灾能力的增强,台风和暴雨灾害所造成的人员死亡、房屋倒塌以及直接经济损失均有减少趋势,因而导致了台风和暴雨灾害年景有转好趋势;(4)海南省台风和暴雨灾害年景的年际变化与登陆海南岛的热带气旋年频数、年最强登陆强度以及热带气旋造成的重度以上区域性暴雨过程的年频次密切相关.
Based on the meteorological observation data,typhoon and rainstorm disaster data and socio-economic data from 1982 to 2017 in Hainan Province,in the report,a composite index for damage caused by typhoon and rainstorm was constructed,which can better remove the influence of rising price. According to percentile method,the threshold value of the annual disaster assessment was also determined. The assessment results of annual disaster were proposed,and its variations and influence factors were analyzed. The results showed that:( 1) Annual disaster assessment method we developed can objectively reflect the distribution of typhoon and rainstorm disasters in Hainan Province.( 2) In the past 36 years,annual disaster situation grade of typhoon and rainstorm in Hainan Province has significant fluctuations in the inter-annual scale. It appears prominent periods of 3 ～ 6years from the late 1980 s to the end of the 20 th century and short significant periods of 4 ～ 5 years and 2 ～ 3years in the early 21 st century. In terms of inter-decadal variations,the grade of disasters was basically at a relatively high stage from 1982 to 1996,and at a relatively low stage from 1997 to 2017,but no mutation occurred.( 3) In the past 36 years,although the annual strongest landing intensity of tropical cyclones landing on Hainan Island tends to increase and the frequency of heavy regional rainstorms caused by tropical cyclones has increased,the annual disaster situation of typhoon and rainstorm have turned better. This is due to the reduction of the annual frequency of tropical cyclones landing and the enhancement of disaster prevention and reduction capabilities,which lead to the decrease of the number of deaths,the area of collapsed houses and the direct economic loss rate of typhoon and rainstorm disasters.( 4) The inter-annual variation of typhoon and rainstorm disaster was closely related to the annual frequency of tropical cyclones landing on Hainan Island,the annual strongest landing strength of tropical cyclones,and the annual frequency of severe regional rainstorms caused by tropical cyclones.
Based on the meteorological observation data,typhoon and rainstorm disaster data and socio-economic data from 1982 to 2017 in Hainan Province,in the report,a composite index for damage caused by typhoon and rainstorm was constructed,which can better remove the influence of rising price. According to percentile method,the threshold value of the annual disaster assessment was also determined. The assessment results of annual disaster were proposed,and its variations and influence factors were analyzed. The results showed that:( 1) Annual disaster assessment method we developed can objectively reflect the distribution of typhoon and rainstorm disasters in Hainan Province.( 2) In the past 36 years,annual disaster situation grade of typhoon and rainstorm in Hainan Province has significant fluctuations in the inter-annual scale. It appears prominent periods of 3 ～ 6years from the late 1980 s to the end of the 20 th century and short significant periods of 4 ～ 5 years and 2 ～ 3years in the early 21 st century. In terms of inter-decadal variations,the grade of disasters was basically at a relatively high stage from 1982 to 1996,and at a relatively low stage from 1997 to 2017,but no mutation occurred.( 3) In the past 36 years,although the annual strongest landing intensity of tropical cyclones landing on Hainan Island tends to increase and the frequency of heavy regional rainstorms caused by tropical cyclones has increased,the annual disaster situation of typhoon and rainstorm have turned better. This is due to the reduction of the annual frequency of tropical cyclones landing and the enhancement of disaster prevention and reduction capabilities,which lead to the decrease of the number of deaths,the area of collapsed houses and the direct economic loss rate of typhoon and rainstorm disasters.( 4) The inter-annual variation of typhoon and rainstorm disaster was closely related to the annual frequency of tropical cyclones landing on Hainan Island,the annual strongest landing strength of tropical cyclones,and the annual frequency of severe regional rainstorms caused by tropical cyclones.
引文
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[16]楼文高,熊聘,冯国珍,等.影响投影寻踪聚类建模的关键因素分析与实证研究[J].数理统计与管理,2017,36(5):783-801.
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[19]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:42-106.
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[3]王胜,沈梅,石磊.安徽省近33年农业气象灾害年景评估[J].中国农业大学学报,2013,18(3):192-197.
[4]张星,郑有飞,周乐照.农业气象灾害灾情等级划分与年景评估[J].生态学杂志,2007,26(3):418-421.
[5]雷小途,陈佩燕,杨玉华,等.中国台风灾情特征及其灾害客观评估方法[J].气象学报,2009,18(3):875-883.
[6]吴慧,陈德明,吴胜安,等.灰色关联分析在热带气旋灾害等级评估中的应用[J].热带作物学报,2009,30(2):244-248.
[7]王秀荣,张立生,李维邦.台风灾害综合等级评判模型改进及应用分析[J].气象,2018,44(2):304-312.
[8]张亚杰,陈升孛,吴慧,等.对南海不同区域热带气旋气候特征的分析[J].海南大学学报,2017,35(1):44-53.
[9]吴慧,邹燕,朱晶晶,等.海南省区域性暴雨过程综合强度评估方法研究[J].气象研究与应用,2017,38(3):8-12.
[10]吴岩峻.中国气象灾害大典(海南卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2008:40-112.
[11]Ying M,Zhang W,Yu H,et al. An overview of the China meteorological administration tropical cyclone database[J]. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology,2014,31(2):287-301.
[12]吴慧,邢彩盈,吴胜安,等.夏季影响海南的热带气旋频数预测[J].热带气象学报,2016,32(3):377-384.
[13]雷小途,陈佩燕,穆海镇,等.中华人民共和国气象行业标准QX/T 170—2012台风灾害影响评估技术规范.
[14]吕晓男,陆允甫,王人潮.土壤肥力综合评价初步研究[J].浙江大学学报,1999,25(4):378-382.
[15]邹燕,叶殿秀,林毅,等.福建区域性暴雨过程综合强度定量化评估方法[J].应用气象学报,2014,25(3):360-364.
[16]楼文高,熊聘,冯国珍,等.影响投影寻踪聚类建模的关键因素分析与实证研究[J].数理统计与管理,2017,36(5):783-801.
[17]石磊,王胜,盛绍学.近50年安徽省气候年景评估方法[J].地理研究,2012,31(9):1580-1588.
[18]Hyndman R J,Fan Y. Sample quantiles in statistical packages[J]. American Statistician,1996,50(4):361-365.
[19]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:42-106.