阜阳市气象要素与小麦千粒重的关系分析及预测
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摘要
利用2006—2015年小麦(Triticum aestivum L.)抽穗至成熟期间千粒重和同期气象数据,采用SPSS统计分析工具分析了二者之间的关系。结果表明,该时段日最低气温对小麦千粒重的影响最为明显,其次是日照时间和总日照时间。并建立了以气象主要影响因子与千粒重的多元线性回归预测模型作为预测小麦千粒重的依据,2016—2017年独立预测检验精度在67%,说明该模型具有较高的应用价值。
Based on the thousand kernel weight and the meteorological data between heading period and mature period of wheat(Triticum aestivum L.) during 2006 to 2015, the relationship between the two was analyzed by using SPSS statistical analysis tool. The results showed that the daily minimum temperature had the most significant effect on the thousand kernel weight, followed by sunshine hours and total sunshine hours. The multivariate linear regression prediction model based on the correlation between the main influencing factors and thousand kernel weight was established as a basis for predicting the thousand grain weight of wheat. The independent forecasts inspection accuracy during 2016 to 2017 was about 67%, showed that the model has good application value.
Based on the thousand kernel weight and the meteorological data between heading period and mature period of wheat(Triticum aestivum L.) during 2006 to 2015, the relationship between the two was analyzed by using SPSS statistical analysis tool. The results showed that the daily minimum temperature had the most significant effect on the thousand kernel weight, followed by sunshine hours and total sunshine hours. The multivariate linear regression prediction model based on the correlation between the main influencing factors and thousand kernel weight was established as a basis for predicting the thousand grain weight of wheat. The independent forecasts inspection accuracy during 2016 to 2017 was about 67%, showed that the model has good application value.
引文
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[12]史忠良,马爱萍.光照强度对小麦不同品种结实率及千粒重的影响[J].山西农业科学,1998(4):16-18.
[13]杨光,陈若礼,张存岭,等.淮北小麦灌浆特性及与气象条件的关系研究[J].安徽农业科学,2006,34(21):5454-5456,5460.
[14]高阳华,易新民.气候因子对小麦粒重规律研究[J].四川气象,1992,12(4):55-58.
[15]唐卷,汤永禄,李朝苏,等.基于分位数回归模型分析小麦千粒重与气候因子的关系[J].西南农业学报,2014,27(3):943-949.
[2]刘保花,陈新平,崔振岭,等.三大粮食作物产量潜力与产量差研究进展[J].中国生态农业学报,2015,23(5):525-534.
[3]邱新法,曾燕.影响我国冬小麦产量的气象因子研究[J].南京气象学院学报,2000,23(4):575-578.
[4]郑成岩,陈金,宋振伟,等.黄淮南部麦区不同年代小麦品种生产力对气温升高的响应特征[A].中国作物学会2013年学术年会论文摘要集[C].北京:中国作物学会,2013.173.
[5]薛双.六个小麦品种在冀东生态类型区的品比试验研究[J].现代农村科技,2013(11):60-62.
[6]王广满.打造“江淮粮仓”品牌[J].江淮,2009(9):27-28.
[7]邱美娟,刘建栋,邬定荣,等.华北冬小麦开花及成熟期变化特征分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2014,32(3):250-255.
[8]成林,李彤霄,刘荣花.主要生育期气候变化对河南省冬小麦生长及产量的影响[J].中国生态农业学报,2017,25(6):931-940.
[9]费淑玲,赵玉风,赵永敢,等.影响淮北小麦后期生育的气象因子分析[J].安徽农学通报,2016,22(10):49-49.
[10]王胜,田红,党修伍,等.安徽淮北平原冬小麦气候适宜度分析及作物年景评估[J].气候变化研究进展,2017,13(3):253-261.
[11]张杰,陈方.北京冬小麦灌浆期气象因子与产量间关联分析[J].安徽农学通报,2012,18(5):137-139.
[12]史忠良,马爱萍.光照强度对小麦不同品种结实率及千粒重的影响[J].山西农业科学,1998(4):16-18.
[13]杨光,陈若礼,张存岭,等.淮北小麦灌浆特性及与气象条件的关系研究[J].安徽农业科学,2006,34(21):5454-5456,5460.
[14]高阳华,易新民.气候因子对小麦粒重规律研究[J].四川气象,1992,12(4):55-58.
[15]唐卷,汤永禄,李朝苏,等.基于分位数回归模型分析小麦千粒重与气候因子的关系[J].西南农业学报,2014,27(3):943-949.