山葡萄品质气象预测预报模型
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摘要
山葡萄的品质决定着葡萄酒的质量,葡萄浆果糖度决定着葡萄品质。葡萄成熟过程中浆果含糖量和含酸量是相互制约的,含糖量主要呈对数略显"S"型变化,含酸量呈指数曲线型变化。将成熟期葡萄浆果含糖量作为葡萄品质的评价指标,利用通化产区1995—2016年成熟期山葡萄浆果含糖量的实测数据与气象条件进行相关分析,得出山葡萄品质与5月—9月上旬积温、7月—8月日照时数、5月—9月上旬水热系数、8月—9月上旬积温关系密切,相关关系均通过了α为0.05或0.01的显著性检验。利用多元回归统计方法建立了山葡萄品质气象预测预报模型,模型的判定系数R~2为0.815,通过了α=0.01的显著性检验。模型的拟合检验平均误差百分率为3.91%。利用2017年、2018年资料对模型进行试报检验,误差百分率分别为1.59%和3.79%。模型具有较高的准确率,能够满足通化产区山葡萄栽培对气象预报和服务的需求。
The quality of Amur grape(vitis amurensis Rupr.) determines wine quality and the content of fructose determines the quality of Amur grape.The sugar and acid contents in berries restrict each other during grape ripening.The sugar content shows a logarithmic distribution with a 'S' type change.The acid content presents an exponential distribution.Taking the sugar content of mature berries as evaluation standard of grape quality,the paper conducts a correlation analysis between the measured data of mature berries sugar contents in Tonghua from 1995 to 2016 and the weather conditions.The results show that the quality of Amur grape has a close relationship with the accumulated temperature and hydrothermal coefficient from May to early September,the sunshine hours from July to August,and the accumulated temperature from August to September.The correlations have all passed the significant test with α of 0.05 or 0.01.A prediction model has been built between the Amur grape quality and weather conditions using multiple regression statistical methods.The determination coefficient R~2 is 0.815,which passed the significant test with α of 0.01.The average error percentage of the model's fitting test is 3.91%.The data in 2017 and 2018 has been used to test the forecast model,while the error percentage of the model is 1.59% and 3.79%,respectively.The model has a high accuracy rate which could meet the needs of weather forecast and service of Amur grape cultivation in Tonghua.
The quality of Amur grape(vitis amurensis Rupr.) determines wine quality and the content of fructose determines the quality of Amur grape.The sugar and acid contents in berries restrict each other during grape ripening.The sugar content shows a logarithmic distribution with a 'S' type change.The acid content presents an exponential distribution.Taking the sugar content of mature berries as evaluation standard of grape quality,the paper conducts a correlation analysis between the measured data of mature berries sugar contents in Tonghua from 1995 to 2016 and the weather conditions.The results show that the quality of Amur grape has a close relationship with the accumulated temperature and hydrothermal coefficient from May to early September,the sunshine hours from July to August,and the accumulated temperature from August to September.The correlations have all passed the significant test with α of 0.05 or 0.01.A prediction model has been built between the Amur grape quality and weather conditions using multiple regression statistical methods.The determination coefficient R~2 is 0.815,which passed the significant test with α of 0.01.The average error percentage of the model's fitting test is 3.91%.The data in 2017 and 2018 has been used to test the forecast model,while the error percentage of the model is 1.59% and 3.79%,respectively.The model has a high accuracy rate which could meet the needs of weather forecast and service of Amur grape cultivation in Tonghua.
引文
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[6]徐淑伟,刘树庆,杨志新,等.葡萄品质的评价及其与土壤质地的关系研究[J].土壤,2009,41(5):790-795.
[7]吉艳芝,杨志新,文宏达,等.葡萄品质与土壤地球化学关系研究进展[J].安徽农业科学,2008,36(16):6872-6874.
[8]张磊,张晓煜,亢艳莉,等.土壤肥力对酿酒葡萄品质的影响[J].江西农业大学学报,2008,30(2):226-229,234.
[9]邓浩亮,孔维萍,张恒嘉,等.不同生育期调亏灌溉对酿酒葡萄耗水及果实品质的影响[J].中国生态农业学报,2016,24(9):1196-1205.
[10]方志.山葡萄与山葡萄酒[J].酿酒科技,2003(6):93-94.
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[12]宋保军,金仕富.不同气候条件对山葡萄浆果糖度的影响[J].特产研究,2001(2):26-28.
[13]刘明春,薛生梁,钱莉,等.河西酿酒葡萄生育模型及气象条件分析[J].气象,2004,30(12):78-82.
[14]晁瑞堂.无核白葡萄含糖量与气象因子关系的研究[J].八一农学院学报,1995,18(3):65-68.
[15]张晓煜,刘玉兰,张磊,等.气象条件对酿酒葡萄若干品质因子的影响[J].中国农业气象,2007,28(3):326-330.
[16]李记明,姜文广.优质干红葡萄酒中主要质量指标的研究[J].中外葡萄与葡萄酒,2018(6):18-24.
[17]张磊,张晓煜,段晓凤,等.气象条件对高酸苹果若干品质因子的影响[J].气象与环境科学,2018,41(3):51-56.
[18]檀艳静.1981-2016年河南省冬小麦产量对气象因素变化的响应[J].气象与环境科学,2018,41(4):108-116.
[19]周广胜.气候变化对中国农业生产影响研究展望[J].气象与环境科学,2015,38(1):80-94.
[20]李记明,李华.不同地区酿酒葡萄成熟度与葡萄酒质量的研究[J].西北农业学报,1996,5(4):71-74.
[21]张艳芳.谈葡萄酒酿造的几项基本原则[J].酿酒,2004(3):57-58.
[22]袁海燕,张晓煜,刘玉兰,等.酿酒葡萄总糖含量与气象条件的关系[J].宁夏农林科技,2006(4):46-49,40.
[23]刘玉兰,郑有飞,张晓煜.气象条件对酿酒葡萄影响的研究进展[J].中外葡萄与葡萄酒,2008(1):28-29.
[24]贺普超.葡萄学[M].北京:农业出版社,1999.
[25]郭志强,刘华伟,刘学义,等.气候条件对棉花优质高产的影响及对策[J].气象与环境科学,2008,31(增刊):162-165.
[2]王军,葛玉香,包怡红.东北山葡萄品种特性比较[J].东北林业大学学报,2004,34(1):29-31.
[3]刘玉兰.酿酒葡萄的品质指标分析及其与气象条件关系的试验研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2006.
[4]高迎娟,崔金平,蔡世敏.通化山葡萄气象产量预报方法[J].气象灾害防御,2015,22(1):26-28.
[5]伊承继,周红英,张春玲,等.秦皇岛市气候条件与酿酒葡萄生产[J].河北果树,1998(4):7-8.
[6]徐淑伟,刘树庆,杨志新,等.葡萄品质的评价及其与土壤质地的关系研究[J].土壤,2009,41(5):790-795.
[7]吉艳芝,杨志新,文宏达,等.葡萄品质与土壤地球化学关系研究进展[J].安徽农业科学,2008,36(16):6872-6874.
[8]张磊,张晓煜,亢艳莉,等.土壤肥力对酿酒葡萄品质的影响[J].江西农业大学学报,2008,30(2):226-229,234.
[9]邓浩亮,孔维萍,张恒嘉,等.不同生育期调亏灌溉对酿酒葡萄耗水及果实品质的影响[J].中国生态农业学报,2016,24(9):1196-1205.
[10]方志.山葡萄与山葡萄酒[J].酿酒科技,2003(6):93-94.
[11]李华,火兴三.中国酿酒葡萄气候区划的水分指标[J].生态学杂志,2006,25(9):1124-1128.
[12]宋保军,金仕富.不同气候条件对山葡萄浆果糖度的影响[J].特产研究,2001(2):26-28.
[13]刘明春,薛生梁,钱莉,等.河西酿酒葡萄生育模型及气象条件分析[J].气象,2004,30(12):78-82.
[14]晁瑞堂.无核白葡萄含糖量与气象因子关系的研究[J].八一农学院学报,1995,18(3):65-68.
[15]张晓煜,刘玉兰,张磊,等.气象条件对酿酒葡萄若干品质因子的影响[J].中国农业气象,2007,28(3):326-330.
[16]李记明,姜文广.优质干红葡萄酒中主要质量指标的研究[J].中外葡萄与葡萄酒,2018(6):18-24.
[17]张磊,张晓煜,段晓凤,等.气象条件对高酸苹果若干品质因子的影响[J].气象与环境科学,2018,41(3):51-56.
[18]檀艳静.1981-2016年河南省冬小麦产量对气象因素变化的响应[J].气象与环境科学,2018,41(4):108-116.
[19]周广胜.气候变化对中国农业生产影响研究展望[J].气象与环境科学,2015,38(1):80-94.
[20]李记明,李华.不同地区酿酒葡萄成熟度与葡萄酒质量的研究[J].西北农业学报,1996,5(4):71-74.
[21]张艳芳.谈葡萄酒酿造的几项基本原则[J].酿酒,2004(3):57-58.
[22]袁海燕,张晓煜,刘玉兰,等.酿酒葡萄总糖含量与气象条件的关系[J].宁夏农林科技,2006(4):46-49,40.
[23]刘玉兰,郑有飞,张晓煜.气象条件对酿酒葡萄影响的研究进展[J].中外葡萄与葡萄酒,2008(1):28-29.
[24]贺普超.葡萄学[M].北京:农业出版社,1999.
[25]郭志强,刘华伟,刘学义,等.气候条件对棉花优质高产的影响及对策[J].气象与环境科学,2008,31(增刊):162-165.