中国食品进口需求趋势及优化策略
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摘要
随着人们生活水平的不断提高、中产阶级不断扩大等因素的不断强化,以及国内食品自给率受农业生产效率提高不乐观、农业投入、水资源和可耕种土地等因素的制约,中国对国外食品需求的依赖性不断加强。未来30年,中国食品进口的需求趋势非常明显,牛肉、羊肉、奶制品、水果、油籽等的市场规模巨大,增长速度比较快,玉米需求减少,这一趋势主要是受人口结构变化、城镇化、居民收入及消费趋势改变等因素的影响。最后,提出了食品进口国(地区)多元化、增加与食品自由贸易相关的自贸协定及引进国外连锁食品超市等优化策略。
With the continuous improvement of the living standards of the residents, the continuous aggrandizement of the middle class expansion and other factors, and the restraint of many factors on domestic food self-sufficiency rate such as less optimistic on the improvement of agricultural production efficiency,agricultural investment, water resources and arable land, the dependence on foreign food demand for China is increasing constantly. In the next 30 years, it will be very obvious for the demand trend of China's food import,the markets scales of beef, mutton, dairy products, fruits and oilseeds will be huge, and the growth rate will grow fast, while the demand of maize will decrease, these trends are mainly due to the change of population structure,urbanization, household income and the change of consumption trends. Finally, the author put forward the optimization strategies from the diversification of food importing countries(regions), the increase of free trade agreements related to free food trade and the introduction of overseas food supermarkets.
With the continuous improvement of the living standards of the residents, the continuous aggrandizement of the middle class expansion and other factors, and the restraint of many factors on domestic food self-sufficiency rate such as less optimistic on the improvement of agricultural production efficiency,agricultural investment, water resources and arable land, the dependence on foreign food demand for China is increasing constantly. In the next 30 years, it will be very obvious for the demand trend of China's food import,the markets scales of beef, mutton, dairy products, fruits and oilseeds will be huge, and the growth rate will grow fast, while the demand of maize will decrease, these trends are mainly due to the change of population structure,urbanization, household income and the change of consumption trends. Finally, the author put forward the optimization strategies from the diversification of food importing countries(regions), the increase of free trade agreements related to free food trade and the introduction of overseas food supermarkets.
引文
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[2]蒋勇.我国进口食品行业年复合增长率达14.6%助力居民高品质生活[EB/OL].(2018-11-08)[2019-06-02].http://www.sohu.com/a/273990230_362042.
[3]Hamshere,P,Sheng,Y,Moir,B,et al..What China wants:Analysis of China's food demand to 2050[R].ABARES,44th ABARES Outlook,2014:13-23.
[4]2030年中国老年人将占总人口25%我国老龄化何处特殊2016年12月8日[EB/OL].[2019-06-02].https://www.takefoto.cn/viewnews-1003224.html.
[5]饮食结构变迁和城镇人口增长,挑战中国食物安全[EB/OL].(2017-07-05)[2019-06-02].https://www.sohu.com/a/154457293_115495.
[6]进口牛肉深度分析:美国、澳大利亚、新西兰、南美哪国牛肉好?[EB/OL].(2017-08-18)[2019-06-02].http://www.sohu.com/a/165523568_708257.
[7]李谷成.提升农业全要素生产率[EB/OL].(2019-03-02)[2019-06-02].http://www.cssn.cn/sf/201903/t20190306_4843408_2.shtml.
[8]我国力争到2020年实现化肥使用量零增长庄稼减“肥”,农业更美[EB/OL].(2015-12-21)[2019-06-02].http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2015-12/21/content_5026037.htm.
[9]蔡溢.中国进口澳大利亚食品的驱动因素与策略选择[J].对外经贸实务,2014(4):46-49.
[10]蔡溢.澳大利亚橄榄油市场分析及出口中国的前景展望[J].农业展望,2014(5):68-71.
[11]刘慧.我国大豆进口多元化格局已经形成[EB/OL].(2018-08-10)[2019-06-02].http://news.foodmate.net/2018/08/479346.html.
[12]Hyde,Matthew,Key agricultural outcomes of recent freetrade agreements[BL/OL].(2015-10)[2019-06-02].www.daff.gov.au.
[13]Woolworths进军中国直接变高端产品?加价十倍!我们还是去找代购吧[EB/OL].(2017-06-16)[2019-06-02].http://www.sohu.com/a/149446681_165533.